ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Could be luis...One thing is for sure models for the time being are faily aggresive in terms of development.

Experimnetal FIM is also developing it and turns northward pretty quickly.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim&domain=244&run_time=27+Aug+2011+-+12Z

[cycloneye]

Given its low latitude (near 10N) we should monitor this system closely, specially us in the islands. A stronger system like the GFS is forecasting will possibly recurve, but if this system is not as deep as the GFS is forecasting it in the next 72 hours then a more westward track should be more plausible.

For now, lets just keep watching it..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree with that. We will have to watch it, but I guess it all hinges on how strong or not the high pressure will be in the next few days in terms of track.

[Ptarmigan]

Future Jose. Longer it takes to develop, the more west 92L could go. If I recall, Ike formed further north of 92L and it went westward despite being a hurricane. Ike was tagged as Invest 97L.

[BigA]

If this develops at 8 north it might have a hardere time feeling weakness. Will do a stat analysis of east Atlantic storms that formed below ten later tonight or tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

It appears that the ridge may be relativly strong if the NAO forecast is right about being neutral to slightly positive.

[Jevo]

LoL see what I was talking about with that ECMWF @ 8 days

[GCANE]

Given its low latitude (near 10N) we should monitor this system closely, specially us in the islands. A stronger system like the GFS is forecasting will possibly recurve, but if this system is not as deep as the GFS is forecasting it in the next 72 hours then a more westward track should be more plausible.

For now, lets just keep watching it..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree with that. We will have to watch it, but I guess it all hinges on how strong or not the high pressure will be in the next few days in terms of track.

MIMIC-TPW shows good convergence and it is low.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[cycloneye]

You can see the circulation in this loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

[ROCK]

Adrian,that has to be an error by the Bams as they go west and turn right in a heartbeat.

yeah those 0z BAM are posted wrong....almost a south of west motion and at a low lat also

[ConvergenceZone]

Lol no idea, but he posted on twitter which sounded confident that the pattern will be there to shove it to the east coast: "East coast: next hurricane threat coming in 12-16 days! Euro now seeing it. I wasnt kidding around about this pattern" -Joe Bastardi

I like JB, he's a kick to watch and listen to, but the problem regarding his 92L forecast is that he never looks at what the models are forecasting, he just mentions right out of the blue that it will threaten the east coast....

[BigA]

These statistics may not be of any real relevance, but they might be worth noting.

Since 1968 (I wanted to use data from the satellite era), ten tropical storms and hurricanes have formed from depressions first classified south of 10N and east of 35W.

Of these, six grew into hurricanes. None of the ones that did not become hurricanes significantly affected land.

The three hurricanes in this example are Bertha (1996), Georges (1998) and Ivan (2004).

Therefore, it is really not possible to say whether a storm that forms far to the south has a greater chance of affecting land, as there are too few storms that formed in that place.

[bexar]

will this suffer the same fate as 90L? are the conditions ahead still unfavorable?

[BigA]

00 GFS is marginally farther west than 18Z run: Gets to 57 west rather than 49 in the 18Z ru. Still a fish, though.

[Adoquín]

of the three the first two affected Puerto Rico, one the Cat 3 going straight through and the third was far away, strong and to the south, enough to cringe. I agree that is too little data to predict anything.

However, I note that being so down south it may take it longer to detatch from the ITZ, which would not be good, The high has tended to be strong. Do for now based on Luis data itcis rational to err on the side of stronger as opposed to lower values. Other parameters hav to be examined. How is Mr. Sal doing? how fast is it moving west? how strong can it get so low based on the precedents mentioned while it remains so low? big questions and depending on the answer another monster?

Puerto Rico hurricanr history has several periods of multiple strikes in a single year by significant hurricanes, mostly on a e or se to wnw direction. It generally happens at least once every century Seversl of those hurricanes ended somewhere in the East Coast , from the. Keys up.

[Adoquín]

sorry for the typos and for forgetting the most important part of that story: we are grossly ovedue for that happening again, by about a 100 years or so. So, Hurakan should post the bear.

[FireRat]

Hi S2k members, I analyzed September via my "natural disaster date" method and wanted to share that the next potential hurricane risk dates are September 3rd-6th with the 3rd,4th and 6th being most notable. It will be interesting to see if they coincide with anything this invest 92L will do if it forms by then. I figured I could provide this info as a backup to any models that foresee a landfall during these dates.

Looking at the timing, it may be something for the Leewards/PR if it were to form into Jose huh?

It's far out on a limb but I predict a possible impact coming from a storm down the road between 9/3 and 9/6 in the eastern Caribbean Islands as hurricane, perhaps strong hurricane on 9/4. This may come from 92L or whatever follows it. This is just my opinion, so in case this invest does develop...you know the drill.....listen to NHC. Just wanted to share this with all of you. I hope it helps in some way.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blazess556]

00z euro has this east of the bahamas at 240 with ridging overhead.

[Adoquín]

can you figure out from what direction it is coming from, se perhaps? How east and sourh?

[southerngale]

can you figure out from what direction it is coming from, se perhaps? How east and sourh?

Here's the link so you can see the full loop: 0z ECMWF



0z ECMWF @ 240 hours

[abajan]

Now given a medium chance of development over the next 48 hours, folks.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280557
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OCEAN CITY
MARYLAND.

A TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA
IS PRODUCING BURSTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE ON ITS SOUTHEAST SIDE. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXTREMELY UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI