ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[RL3AO]

This late July/Early August ones usually look like they're developing at night and fall apart during the day and repeat 7 times.

I'm predicting >96 hours of code orange or red during its trek.

[NDG]

Might be too early to tell, but with no real change in the pattern during next week I will not be surprised if 92L takes a very similar track of that of Emily, at least through the Caribbean.
Both ECMWF & GFS show a 594+ dm H50 ridge to come off of Africa to the north of 92L that will keep it on a westerly course through the Atlantic with no sign of recurving east of the Windward & Leeward Islands.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Kory]

Might be too early to tell, but with no real change in the pattern during next week I will not be surprised if 92L takes a very similar track of that of Emily, at least through the Caribbean.
Both ECMWF & GFS show a 594+ dm H50 ridge to come off of Africa to the north of 92L that will keep it on a westerly course through the Atlantic with no sign of recurving east of the Windward & Leeward Islands.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I have to agree NDG, this pattern has been dominant for most of the summer. I can see it re-curving before the East Coast, unless the system stays far enough to the south where it may end up in central American or Mexico.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CronkPSU]

i'll be honest and admit i haven't been following closely this summer but wow the SAL looks crazy right now, has it been that large all summer?

[cycloneye]

i'll be honest and admit i haven't been following closely this summer but wow the SAL looks crazy right now, has it been that large all summer?

During June and July,there were less big sal outbreaks than what normally occur in those months.

[lonelymike]

What are we talking? 12-15 days from the US?

[SouthFLTropics]

A bit off topic but I wonder if we will see another advisory this year from the NHC that says something to the effect "Franklin, the storm, not the forecaster"??? LOL

[Scorpion]

Hopefully this doesn't take forever to develop like Emily only to completely flame out after it had finally piqued our interest

[wxman57]

The east Atlantic may be a bit too hostile for development, still. Bermuda high shifted east but rather strong would mean strong low-level easterly flow east of 50W for a while. That's the reason for all the dry air north of 92L. This is a problem because the best convergence will come as it nears the Caribbean in 5-6 days. Farther west development means more of a threat to Caribbean and possibly the U.S. Ridge would probably hold firm over TX/LA for the next few weeks, so look for either a track south to NE MX or south TX (as per Arlene/Don) or similar to Emily.

[plasticup]

What are we talking? 12-15 days from the US?

It's a bit too early to even consider US threat. Especially with the Bermuda high receding east and not forecast to return in the medium-term, Cape Verde-type storms are looking more likely to recurve.

[jinftl]

Given the estimated location at 11.5N 19W, if this system averages a forward motion of 15 miles per hour, it will take approx these # days to reach:

San Juan - 9 days
Miami - 11-12 days
Houston - 14 days


If the forward motion is 12 miles per hour instead, it would take these many days to reach:

San Juan - 11 days
Miami - 14 days
Houston - 17-18 days


Alot came happen in that timeframe!!! (or not happen)

What are we talking? 12-15 days from the US?

[ronjon]

GFS puts 92L near the LA in 7 days. Hispaniola in 9 days.

[Jevo]

Hey look.. Its our good friend SAL! That guy has been nothing but a bully this year.. takin all our water and stuff.. 92L is going to have some dust to deal with till about 50L

[hurricaneCW]

That could be the danger this year, with SAL keeping these waves from really developing too early, they will have to wait until 50-60W and then develop which rapidly increase the U.S. threat potential rather than developing quickly like last season.

[HurricaneWarning92]

wow look at the dust north of PR and Hispaniola... Any storm going through there and it will have a slow painful death...

[jinftl]

System can't die if they haven't yet developed...so basically they move west as weak systems, then once they get in more favorable conditions west of 50W, they are in someone's backyard.

:uarrow: wow look at the dust north of PR and Hispaniola... Any storm going through there and it will have a slow painful death...

[GCANE]

I like what MIMIC-TPW is showing below 10N. Good west to east boundary layer flow. Could develop a good convergence which may setup a protected pouch.

Looks like it will have good amplitude.

Dakar time section currently showing a dry midlevel.

It may moisten as the convection at 10W merges.

[jinftl]

Interesting dicussion from Crown Weather this morning in regards to 92L and what role it could play in 'taking one for the team' for systems that follow it...


Possible Development Near The Lesser Antilles Later This Week (Invest 92L):
I am keeping an eye on a couple of tropical disturbances that exist from the eastern Atlantic into the African continent this morning. The first tropical disturbance, just very recently designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center, was located to the south of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery over the last several hours show that convection is developing over this disturbance, however, the best vorticity is located to the north of the deeper convection. An analysis of the wind shear over Invest 92L indicates that this system is in a favorable shear environment, however, there is a large amount of dry air located just north of this system and I think it will be ingesting dry air as the wind flow from 32 West to 42 West Longitude is northeasterly and in the direction of all of the dry Saharan Air.

The global models like the GFS and European models forecast a westward track this week and forecast it to be entering the Caribbean as a weak system on Saturday. Looking at the overall environment from the coast of Africa to the Lesser Antilles, the environmental conditions are not all that favorable and really do not become favorable until 50 West Longitude and points west.

So, it is of my opinion that Invest 92L probably will not develop until it is west of 50 West Longitude which it’ll cross the 50 West Longitude line on Friday. From there, this system may track across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean early next Sunday.

Invest 92L will be monitored this week and there is more than plenty of time to keep an eye on it.


Tropical Disturbances Over African Continent That May Become Invest 93L:
Satellite imagery from the African continent show a robust tropical disturbance over western Africa near 9 West Longitude that is forecast to track into the far eastern Atlantic over the next couple of days. This disturbance has the potential to also develop later on down the road and the global models are more aggressive with developing this disturbance than Invest 92L. What may happen and this is a big may is that Invest 92L may clear a path for what may be Invest 93L by ingesting dry Saharan Air and moistening up the atmosphere and thus leaving a more favorable environment for future Invest 93L.

So, I will be keeping an eye on the disturbance over western Africa and will keep you all updated. Once again, there is more than plenty of time to keep an eye on it.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Monday morning.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[GCANE]

Good 850mb vorticity south of CV islands and good anti-cyclone & UL outflow with convection at 10W.

Could become potent if this melds together.