ATL: CINDY - Remnants - Discussion

Hylian Auree · #21 Postby **Hylian Auree** » Tue Jul 19, 2011 11:19 pm

Bret looks much better in the lower levels, though this thing is supporting a good amount of convection.
Nevertheless, I'm very dubious it'll have the time to organize with the pace it's moving at and the encompassing shear.

#22 Postby **lester** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:53 am

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 20
MPH.

Sent from my ADR6300 using Tapatalk

WxEnthus · #23 Postby **WxEnthus** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:12 am

Odds increased slightly, interesting. Did it form from the same frontal system that moved offshore as Bret did?

KWT · #24 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:52 am

Yeah it appears they came from the same frontal system...

#25 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:46 am

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 440 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.

CODE RED

x-y-no · #26 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:46 am

Looks about as good as Colin ever did last year.

Florida1118 · #27 Postby **Florida1118** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:48 am

I dont think its going to make it into Cindy/TD3. Its going to run out of time, like a system did last year.

AHS2011 · #28 Postby **AHS2011** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:49 am

Could we be seeing Cindy today?

#29 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:50 am

Latest visible

#30 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:07 am

99L is already a TD at least in my opinion, heck yesterday when it passed to the north of Bermuda it gave them close to TD force winds.
All the sudden my prediction of 3 named systems for this month is becoming very realistic 8-)

#31 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:25 am

Looks like a well developed LLC this morning with convection close enough to it.
Could be upgraded in the next advisory, IMO.

Florida1118 · #32 Postby **Florida1118** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:28 am

The TWO didnt sound like they were going to upgrade soon, but who knows...

#33 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:30 am

very large the area of formation

Macrocane · #34 Postby **Macrocane** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:33 am

Yeah, it seems that it has a well defined LLC, and convection is not over but is near the center, may be upgraded to a TD and if an ASCAT pass or another tool shows TS force winds it will be Cindy. Let's wait and see.

#35 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:36 am

Florida1118 wrote::uarrow: The TWO didnt sound like they were going to upgrade soon, but who knows...

Amazing how their tone & mood is different when it does not pose any threat to land areas.

#36 Postby **plasticup** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:44 am

For the curious, the most northerly tropical cyclone formation was that of Alberto in 1988 at 41.5 degrees north. A large portion of the NHC's "formation possible" area is north of 41.5 N.

So there's a possible record-breaker out there.

#37 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:45 am

Looking at this zoomed in vis sat loop, this is where I place the LLC.
99L already has a comma shaped look. I will be shocked if it does not get upgraded in the next advisory.

#38 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:50 am

Dvorak this morning has it a subtropical system.

20/1145 UTC 33.5N 56.9W ST1.5 99L

#39 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:52 am

12z

AL, 99, 2011072012, , BEST, 0, 333N, 569W, 30, 1010, DB

Winds up to 30 knots

#40 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:54 am

WHXX01 KWBC 201248
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1248 UTC WED JUL 20 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110720 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110720 1200 110721 0000 110721 1200 110722 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.3N 56.9W 34.8N 54.4W 36.3N 51.5W 37.8N 47.9W
BAMD 33.3N 56.9W 35.1N 52.7W 37.6N 48.7W 39.8N 43.9W
BAMM 33.3N 56.9W 35.0N 53.9W 37.1N 50.6W 39.0N 46.4W
LBAR 33.3N 56.9W 34.6N 52.9W 36.8N 49.2W 39.6N 45.9W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110722 1200 110723 1200 110724 1200 110725 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 38.7N 44.4W 41.1N 38.0W 44.3N 30.6W 45.8N 23.9W
BAMD 40.7N 39.5W 41.1N 34.5W 42.0N 32.8W 44.9N 30.4W
BAMM 40.0N 42.2W 42.3N 35.4W 45.0N 28.1W 45.3N 22.8W
LBAR 41.8N 42.2W 48.6N 31.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 33KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 46KTS 33KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.3N LONCUR = 56.9W DIRCUR = 85DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 33.1N LONM12 = 61.8W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 33.4N LONM24 = 65.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

ATL: CINDY - Remnants - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

Who is online