ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#21 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 3:16 pm

HURAKAN wrote:20/1745 UTC 23.0N 60.8W ST1.5 91L -- Atlantic

1st classification, 25 knots

Floater 91L : http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

#22 Postby **AdamFirst** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 4:57 pm

I just saw my local NBC affiliate allude to this area, and I had to jump on here to see if it was for real. Met said it could bring rain to our area.

#23 Postby **flamingosun** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:06 pm

we could sure use it.

#24 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:12 pm

Link: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/1104 ... _ships.txt

SHIPS has the shear increasing to 86 knots in 12 hours, then decreasing to 50 knots in 48 hours and then increasing to 88 knots in 108 hours. Talk about hostile conditions!

#25 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:23 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Link: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/1104 ... _ships.txt

SHIPS has the shear increasing to 86 knots in 12 hours, then decreasing to 50 knots in 48 hours and then increasing to 88 knots in 108 hours. Talk about hostile conditions!

Which is based off the GFS, probably why the GFS doesn't do much with it. However, the Euro and Canadian have more favorable conditions in the near term.

#26 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:54 pm

90L and 91L are practice runs for everyone in the field!! Testing to see if the machinery is working after a few months off!!

Cyclone1 · #27 Postby **Cyclone1** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 6:50 pm

Whoa.

Hello, there, hurricane season.

caribepr · #28 Postby **caribepr** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 7:18 pm

Checking calendar...yep, it's April. Let the wacky weather continue!

#29 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 7:25 pm

Canadian has backed off considerably on development and is more in line with the GFS/Euro in showing a weak low for another 24 hrs or so then it's ripped apart as it nears the Bahamas. Probably won't be anything left of it to produce any rain in FL.

#30 Postby **GCANE** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 8:08 pm

Closest buoys

#31 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 9:22 pm

20/2345 UTC 23.2N 62.0W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic

Dvorak goes from 1.5 to TOO WEAK ... not surprising

#32 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 9:24 pm

wxman57 wrote:Canadian has backed off considerably on development and is more in line with the GFS/Euro in showing a weak low for another 24 hrs or so then it's ripped apart as it nears the Bahamas. Probably won't be anything left of it to produce any rain in FL.

I agree this likely will not get a name; however, the 12z Euro actually came in stronger than previous runs and has a pretty potent low by Friday before it gets sheared out.

#33 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 9:30 pm

GFDL

#34 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 9:44 pm

LOL at GFDL!!! Good practice run!

boca · #35 Postby **boca** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 9:47 pm

I saw the run it starts off going N then stops tuns SSW and then looks to turn north again Loop de loop.

#36 Postby **GCANE** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 9:59 pm

#37 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 10:01 pm

It is interesting that the wind maximum is close to the center and most of the models initialize as a shallow warm core.

#38 Postby **GCANE** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 10:03 pm

boca · #39 Postby **boca** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 10:05 pm

GCANE wrote:

How do you read that map?

#40 Postby **GCANE** » Wed Apr 20, 2011 10:10 pm

boca wrote:
GCANE wrote:

How do you read that map?

That's what you would see from a well developed broad Cat 2 cane.

The wind field is a TD signature.

Something is very weird here.

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