WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Remnants
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wow! look at the 30 knot wind radius of JMA(yellow circle). This thing is huge!
TS 1105 (Meari)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 23 June 2011
<Analyses at 23/00 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N15°10'(15.2°)
E127°10'(127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E750km(400NM)
W370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°20'(24.3°)
E123°55'(123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 410km(220NM)
<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°00'(30.0°)
E124°25'(124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area Wide 600km(325NM)
TS 1105 (Meari)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 23 June 2011
<Analyses at 23/00 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N15°10'(15.2°)
E127°10'(127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E750km(400NM)
W370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°20'(24.3°)
E123°55'(123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 410km(220NM)
<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°00'(30.0°)
E124°25'(124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area Wide 600km(325NM)
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WTPQ21 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 15.2N 127.2E POOR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 19.6N 125.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 250000UTC 24.3N 123.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 260000UTC 30.0N 124.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
251
WTPQ31 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1105 MEARI (1105)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 230000 UTC IS POOR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
Looks like JTWC will relocate this farther north next advisory:
TPPN11 PGTW 230045
A. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)
B. 22/2330Z
C. 16.6N
D. 128.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. POSITION IS RELOCATED BASED ON
RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND 2114 SSMIS DATA SUGGESTING THE
LLCC IS FURTHER NORTH. CONVECTION TO THE EAST WRAPS .25 ON THE
LOG10 SPIRAL. ADDING .5 FOR BANDING FEATURE YIELDS A DT OF 2.0.
MET IS 2.5 WHILE PT IS AT 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH
Recent microwave imagery supporting the relocation:
Can't blame them for having difficulty finding a center in this:
Very large wind field; awaiting new ASCAT:
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 15.2N 127.2E POOR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 19.6N 125.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 250000UTC 24.3N 123.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 260000UTC 30.0N 124.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
251
WTPQ31 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1105 MEARI (1105)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 230000 UTC IS POOR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
Looks like JTWC will relocate this farther north next advisory:
TPPN11 PGTW 230045
A. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)
B. 22/2330Z
C. 16.6N
D. 128.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. POSITION IS RELOCATED BASED ON
RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND 2114 SSMIS DATA SUGGESTING THE
LLCC IS FURTHER NORTH. CONVECTION TO THE EAST WRAPS .25 ON THE
LOG10 SPIRAL. ADDING .5 FOR BANDING FEATURE YIELDS A DT OF 2.0.
MET IS 2.5 WHILE PT IS AT 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH
Recent microwave imagery supporting the relocation:
Can't blame them for having difficulty finding a center in this:
Very large wind field; awaiting new ASCAT:
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Even with the relocation in the 0Z satellite bulletin, JTWC decides not to relocate in the real advisory.
WTPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.2N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.3N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.9N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.2N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 31.4N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 38.3N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 45.5N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 127.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND
240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WTPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.2N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.3N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.9N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.2N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 31.4N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 38.3N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 45.5N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 127.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND
240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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- StormingB81
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Re: WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Tropical Storm
Wait where is the center relocated by JTWC again? Somewhere east? Well I think that the center is actually the exposed area near the deep convection. Maybe the convection still wrapping around the center.
And also I don't know which agency should I rely on. They all have different location estimates except for some that are slightly the same.
And also I don't know which agency should I rely on. They all have different location estimates except for some that are slightly the same.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- StormingB81
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This is very rare that there are so many different forecasted tracks....I wouldnt be suprised if they put Okinawa in TCCOR 3 is a percaution as they do fro mtime to time if it could be close enough...but I wouldnt expect that call until tomorrow..the reasoning is the last few hours it has taken a more north north west vise just a north west track..something that has to be watched but that can change again
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Re:
StormingB81 wrote:This is very rare that there are so many different forecasted tracks....I wouldnt be suprised if they put Okinawa in TCCOR 3 is a percaution as they do fro mtime to time if it could be close enough...but I wouldnt expect that call until tomorrow..the reasoning is the last few hours it has taken a more north north west vise just a north west track..something that has to be watched but that can change again
I think even though Meari tracks somewhere near Taiwan, Okinawa would experience stormy weather with that huge circulation of the storm. So I believe putting Okinawa under a storm warning is right.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- StormingB81
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.
Storming, quite difficult to tell in this system that has failed thus far to fully consolidate and therefore is vulnerable to changes in track just from relocation. It's pretty easy to say recurvature around the subtropical ridge, but the devil is always in the detail, and with the system having this big a windfield, any deviation eastward would put Okinawa in danger for higher winds. Here's the steering flow (very similar at all levels):
Here is JTWC's discussion:
WDPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)//
/WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 222114Z SSMIS IMAGE.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TS 07W REMAINS ELONGATED, WITH MULTIPLE
SMALL-SCALE VORTICES DEVELOPING AND ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER. DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLICALLY DEVELOP AND WANE NEAR THESE
VORTICES, THE MOST PROMINENT OF WHICH NOW LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE
BROADER CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES AND CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TS 07W HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. TS 07W IS NOW
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION VICE DISSIPATION,
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DURING THE TRANSITION.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, INTRODUCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH, AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL STRUGGLE
TO CONSOLIDATE. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG AND THE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS 07W SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNDER THESE
COMPETING INFLUENCES BEFORE PASSING OVER COOLER WATER AND
ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY TAU 72. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE
NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM, INCLUDING THE LATEST ECMWF, JGSM, UKMET, AND
GFS RUNS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A TRACK A
BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST, A SCENARIO DEEMED UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT SYNOPTIC REASONING.
HOWEVER, INTERACTION BETWEEN TS 07W AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTH COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT EASTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK,
THOUGH ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CIRCULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED IF
TS 07W REMAINS A WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW SYSTEM AS FORECAST.
C. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO ACCLERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
MERIDIONAL STEERING PATTERN. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL INDUCE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING DURING
THIS TRANSITION PERIOD.//
NNNN
And experimental wind probability table from JTWC shows about 1/4 chance of TS force winds at Kadena:
BTW, JTWC's average error at 48hr is around 100-125nm.
WTPQ21 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 15.7N 127.1E POOR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 20.0N 125.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 250000UTC 24.3N 123.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 260000UTC 30.0N 124.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
ASCAT continually misses the center but does show the broad windfield:
Interesting that KNES and PGTW satellite bulletins keep following a northern vortex. Will have to wait and see if Meari can consolidate around a particular center.
TXPQ25 KNES 230320
TCSWNP
A. 07W (MEARI)
B. 23/0232Z
C. 17.3N
D. 127.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 BASED ON .35 BANDING. MET IS 2.5 WITH PT OF 2.0.
FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
22/2342Z 17.0N 128.5E AMSU
23/0011Z 16.8N 128.5E SSMIS
...LIDDICK
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.
Storming, quite difficult to tell in this system that has failed thus far to fully consolidate and therefore is vulnerable to changes in track just from relocation. It's pretty easy to say recurvature around the subtropical ridge, but the devil is always in the detail, and with the system having this big a windfield, any deviation eastward would put Okinawa in danger for higher winds. Here's the steering flow (very similar at all levels):
Here is JTWC's discussion:
WDPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)//
/WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 222114Z SSMIS IMAGE.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TS 07W REMAINS ELONGATED, WITH MULTIPLE
SMALL-SCALE VORTICES DEVELOPING AND ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER. DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLICALLY DEVELOP AND WANE NEAR THESE
VORTICES, THE MOST PROMINENT OF WHICH NOW LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE
BROADER CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES AND CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TS 07W HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. TS 07W IS NOW
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION VICE DISSIPATION,
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DURING THE TRANSITION.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, INTRODUCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH, AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL STRUGGLE
TO CONSOLIDATE. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG AND THE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS 07W SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNDER THESE
COMPETING INFLUENCES BEFORE PASSING OVER COOLER WATER AND
ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY TAU 72. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE
NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM, INCLUDING THE LATEST ECMWF, JGSM, UKMET, AND
GFS RUNS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A TRACK A
BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST, A SCENARIO DEEMED UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT SYNOPTIC REASONING.
HOWEVER, INTERACTION BETWEEN TS 07W AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTH COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT EASTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK,
THOUGH ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CIRCULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED IF
TS 07W REMAINS A WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW SYSTEM AS FORECAST.
C. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO ACCLERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
MERIDIONAL STEERING PATTERN. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL INDUCE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING DURING
THIS TRANSITION PERIOD.//
NNNN
And experimental wind probability table from JTWC shows about 1/4 chance of TS force winds at Kadena:
Code: Select all
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WIND PROBABILITIES NR 006
__PN_2 PGTW 230300
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WIND PROBABILITIES NR 006
*** BASED ON JTWC WARNING NR 006 FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --
Chinhae 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 1(24)
Chinhae 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
Chinhae 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
Inchon 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 1(23)
Inchon 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
Iwakuni 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9)
Kadena AB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23)
Kadena AB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
Kadena AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
Kunsan AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26) 1(27)
Kunsan AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
Kunsan AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
Misawa 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
Osan AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 1(24)
Osan AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
Osan AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
Pusan 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 1(21)
Pusan 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
Pusan 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
Sapporo 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
Sasebo 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 1(18)
Sasebo 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
Seoul 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 1(23)
Seoul 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
Seoul 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
Taipei 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31)
Taipei 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
Taipei 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
Yongsan AIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 1(23)
Yongsan AIN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
Yongsan AIN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
EXPERIMENTAL TC-COR SETTINGS
SITE TC-COR
---- ------
Taipei 4
NONE NONE
---- ------
*** BASED ON JTWC WARNING NR 006 FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)
NOTES:
TC-COR SETTINGS ARE BASED ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HURRICANE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND 64 KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITIES IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO.
THEY ARE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FOR ONSET OF 50 KT WINDS AT NAVY INSTALLATIONS.
EACH SITE HAS ITS OWN SENSITIVITIES, WHICH THESE TC-COR SETTINGS DO NOT ADDRESS.
THE FOLLOWING CUMULATIVE PROBABILITIES ARE USED FOR THE TC-CORR THRESHOLDS:
TC-COR4 5% PROBABILITY OF 50 KT AT 72 H
TC-COR3 6% PROBABILITY OF 50 KT AT 48 H
TC-COR2 8% PROBABILITY OF 50 KT AT 24 H
TC-COR1 12% PROBABILITY OF 50 KT AT 12 H
END OF EXPERIMENTAL TC-COR SETTINGS
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
BTW, JTWC's average error at 48hr is around 100-125nm.
WTPQ21 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 15.7N 127.1E POOR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 20.0N 125.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 250000UTC 24.3N 123.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 260000UTC 30.0N 124.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
ASCAT continually misses the center but does show the broad windfield:
Interesting that KNES and PGTW satellite bulletins keep following a northern vortex. Will have to wait and see if Meari can consolidate around a particular center.
TXPQ25 KNES 230320
TCSWNP
A. 07W (MEARI)
B. 23/0232Z
C. 17.3N
D. 127.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 BASED ON .35 BANDING. MET IS 2.5 WITH PT OF 2.0.
FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
22/2342Z 17.0N 128.5E AMSU
23/0011Z 16.8N 128.5E SSMIS
...LIDDICK
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- StormingB81
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Yea..I think come tomorrow we shall know how close it may or may not come..I tell yo uthis though If they dont put us in three tonight or early tomorrow I an see us going to 4 to 2 easy if the track change quickly which seems lately is is getting jumpy..wonder if it will consolidate and strenthen
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Re: WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Tropical Storm
latest from PAGASA(it's interesting to note that PAGASA mentioned a low pressure area northeast of catanduanes)
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
TS "FALCON" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and will bring rains over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
Meanwhile, A Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated at 550 km Northeast Virac Catanduanes
Gale Warning is issued over the Eastern seaboard of the country and the Western seaboard of Luzon and of Visayas.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today and the hourly updates.
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
TS "FALCON" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and will bring rains over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
Meanwhile, A Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated at 550 km Northeast Virac Catanduanes
Gale Warning is issued over the Eastern seaboard of the country and the Western seaboard of Luzon and of Visayas.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today and the hourly updates.
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- WestPACMet
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To follow off of what supercane mentioned earlier I want to mention the placement of an upper level trough on the 25-26th as 07W moves towards the Ryuku Islands. I'm pretty confident (and just my thoughts) this will go extra-tropical, thus if does move well east of Okinawa it will form up some gradient induced winds over the island due to a (cold front) forming. Even after the system is well NW of the islands I think there is the potential for high winds and thunderstorms.
Once again my thoughts..
Once again my thoughts..
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- StormingB81
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- StormingB81
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I think I will be suprised tomorrow morning if we are still in 4....but I wont if we are...lol...just saying with the unsure movement it has been taking and the relocations nd the norther movements today the MAY do it as percaution as that have done quite a few times in the past..TCCOR 3 basically stil lsays probable but just clean your stuff up
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- StormingB81
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What a strange system, looks like its struggling to pull itself together and thus has gone down the massive route instead...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- StormingB81
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