ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

#1081 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 2:51 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 100749
AF303 0515A NATE HDOB 27 20110910
073930 2051N 09416W 8496 01466 0057 +168 +162 053048 048 025 001 00
074000 2052N 09417W 8493 01474 0065 +163 //// 054047 047 022 000 01
074030 2053N 09418W 8494 01474 0068 +164 //// 052048 048 022 001 01
074100 2055N 09419W 8489 01483 0070 +165 +164 053048 049 021 000 00
074130 2056N 09421W 8491 01483 0072 +169 +156 055045 046 017 000 00
074200 2057N 09422W 8492 01486 0075 +169 +157 053045 045 019 000 00
074230 2058N 09423W 8492 01486 0077 +168 +153 053044 044 016 000 00
074300 2059N 09424W 8492 01489 0080 +166 +151 053044 044 021 001 00
074330 2100N 09426W 8498 01483 0082 +164 +163 052042 043 024 000 00
074400 2101N 09427W 8492 01492 0087 +156 //// 053043 045 025 011 01
074430 2102N 09428W 8483 01502 //// +148 //// 051040 041 035 017 01
074500 2104N 09430W 8492 01492 0089 +160 //// 050042 043 027 003 01
074530 2105N 09431W 8494 01492 0089 +162 //// 051043 044 029 011 01
074600 2106N 09432W 8491 01499 0093 +158 //// 048042 043 028 008 01
074630 2107N 09433W 8494 01496 0089 +165 //// 047041 041 026 003 01
074700 2108N 09435W 8498 01491 0096 +153 //// 042040 043 033 013 01
074730 2109N 09436W 8490 01501 0093 +161 //// 040037 039 031 008 01
074800 2110N 09437W 8496 01497 0092 +164 //// 042037 038 021 004 01
074830 2111N 09438W 8490 01499 0087 +165 +165 047035 035 020 001 00
074900 2112N 09440W 8492 01494 0084 +171 +160 046034 035 018 000 00

#1082 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:03 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 100759
AF303 0515A NATE HDOB 28 20110910
074930 2113N 09441W 8496 01490 0084 +173 +155 048035 035 012 000 00
075000 2115N 09442W 8488 01497 0080 +176 +151 049033 034 012 000 00
075030 2116N 09443W 8495 01491 0081 +176 +152 050035 036 015 001 00
075100 2117N 09445W 8492 01495 0086 +170 +154 050035 035 016 000 00
075130 2118N 09446W 8492 01495 0085 +172 +152 048035 035 017 000 00
075200 2119N 09447W 8492 01494 0083 +173 +150 051035 036 014 000 00
075230 2120N 09449W 8491 01494 0082 +172 +150 054037 039 013 001 00
075300 2121N 09450W 8492 01491 0083 +170 +152 053036 036 012 000 00
075330 2122N 09451W 8492 01494 0085 +166 +153 051034 035 017 000 00
075400 2124N 09452W 8499 01485 0084 +169 +158 054032 032 /// /// 03
075430 2125N 09452W 8477 01508 0081 +171 +149 056033 034 016 000 00
075500 2126N 09451W 8266 01714 0067 +165 +139 062030 030 018 002 00
075530 2128N 09450W 7959 02036 0069 +144 +126 064028 028 006 002 03
075600 2130N 09449W 7663 02351 0061 +127 +107 065028 029 013 000 00
075630 2131N 09448W 7368 02681 0049 +118 +078 064030 031 013 000 00
075700 2133N 09448W 7099 02994 0048 +102 +059 062031 031 015 001 00
075730 2135N 09447W 6865 03272 0049 +083 +048 062032 033 018 001 00
075800 2136N 09446W 6626 03564 0050 +064 +038 060030 031 018 001 00
075830 2138N 09446W 6402 03845 0051 +048 +024 060029 030 015 000 00
075900 2140N 09445W 6203 04105 0040 +039 +006 060025 027 011 001 00

#1083 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:03 am

000
URNT12 KNHC 100759
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152011
A. 10/07:20:00Z
B. 20 deg 05 min N
093 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1405 m
D. 33 kt
E. 181 deg 73 nm
F. 258 deg 37 kt
G. 181 deg 62 nm
H. 1000 mb
I. 16 C / 1464 m
J. 18 C / 1463 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0515A NATE OB 09
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 07:36:50Z

#1084 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:21 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 100809
AF303 0515A NATE HDOB 29 20110910
075930 2142N 09444W 6005 04367 0032 +026 +001 042024 025 010 000 00
080000 2144N 09444W 5832 04599 0028 +013 -015 042023 023 015 001 00
080030 2145N 09443W 5674 04820 0034 -003 -028 045024 025 011 000 00
080100 2147N 09442W 5525 05033 0028 -012 -050 045026 027 009 000 00
080130 2149N 09442W 5381 05252 0224 -016 -076 044026 026 006 000 00
080200 2151N 09441W 5261 05432 0236 -027 -087 047024 025 004 000 00
080230 2153N 09440W 5143 05611 0246 -037 -103 049024 025 006 001 00
080300 2155N 09440W 5020 05799 0256 -049 -109 052024 025 002 001 00
080330 2156N 09439W 4917 05962 0266 -055 -119 052023 023 000 000 00
080400 2158N 09438W 4810 06133 0276 -063 -134 055022 022 000 000 00
080430 2200N 09437W 4702 06309 0288 -073 -150 064022 022 000 001 03
080500 2202N 09437W 4655 06395 0298 -080 -155 070022 023 000 000 03
080530 2205N 09436W 4652 06403 0302 -080 -158 072023 024 000 001 03
080600 2207N 09435W 4654 06402 0304 -082 -158 069024 024 000 002 03
080630 2209N 09434W 4653 06404 0305 -080 -162 073024 024 001 000 00
080700 2212N 09433W 4659 06398 0306 -078 -163 075024 025 001 001 00
080730 2214N 09432W 4659 06393 0303 -075 -155 076024 024 001 000 03
080800 2216N 09432W 4656 06396 0303 -076 -147 076026 029 000 001 03
080830 2218N 09431W 4655 06400 0303 -078 -127 072024 025 000 000 03
080900 2220N 09430W 4658 06393 0302 -074 -135 070024 025 /// /// 03

#1085 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:22 am

Heading home...

000
URNT15 KNHC 100819
AF303 0515A NATE HDOB 30 20110910
080930 2222N 09429W 4656 06396 0301 -071 -150 074023 024 /// /// 03
081000 2224N 09428W 4655 06398 0303 -075 -150 071022 023 /// /// 03
081030 2226N 09428W 4655 06400 0303 -077 -149 073023 023 /// /// 03
081100 2229N 09427W 4656 06400 0303 -078 -155 074023 023 /// /// 03
081130 2231N 09426W 4656 06396 0302 -082 -141 066020 022 /// /// 03
081200 2233N 09425W 4659 06396 0303 -082 -117 049016 018 /// /// 03
081230 2234N 09425W 4661 06397 0307 -083 -097 033021 023 /// /// 03
081300 2236N 09424W 4651 06413 0308 -086 -104 007022 024 003 005 03
081330 2238N 09423W 4650 06415 0309 -086 -131 033017 022 022 009 00
081400 2240N 09423W 4658 06405 0309 -083 -136 039016 019 019 005 00
081430 2242N 09422W 4659 06400 0308 -076 -159 022012 014 004 002 03
081500 2244N 09421W 4656 06401 0307 -066 -186 024006 013 /// /// 03
081530 2245N 09420W 4652 06408 0307 -071 -170 148006 007 000 002 03
081600 2247N 09420W 4660 06392 0305 -084 -110 099007 009 000 000 03
081630 2249N 09419W 4659 06394 0305 -083 -113 110008 009 000 000 00
081700 2251N 09418W 4655 06403 0305 -080 -135 109009 010 004 001 00
081730 2253N 09417W 4658 06395 0304 -074 -158 089007 008 006 002 00
081800 2255N 09417W 4645 06417 0302 -080 -152 084007 007 000 001 03
081830 2257N 09416W 4559 06552 0305 -082 -166 091013 015 003 001 00
081900 2300N 09416W 4414 06802 0321 -093 -207 096017 018 001 000 00

#1086 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:26 am

It looks loke an eyelike feature without convection:

(saved)

Nate is north of 20N now, going a bit more to the northwest, I think.

#1087 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:02 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 100830
AF303 0515A NATE HDOB 31 20110910
081930 2302N 09415W 4298 07007 0337 -107 -243 094017 018 000 000 03
082000 2304N 09415W 4193 07199 0351 -124 -260 087016 017 000 000 03
082030 2306N 09415W 4101 07368 0362 -141 -281 093015 016 000 000 00
082100 2308N 09414W 4014 07531 0372 -146 -356 065010 012 000 000 03
082130 2310N 09414W 3929 07690 0382 -159 -398 037009 010 000 001 00
082200 2312N 09414W 3850 07846 0392 -173 -361 021009 009 000 000 00
082230 2314N 09413W 3785 07970 0401 -184 -372 010013 015 000 000 00
082300 2316N 09413W 3759 08024 0407 -185 -263 019010 011 000 000 03
082330 2318N 09412W 3756 08037 0409 -192 -267 009009 011 001 000 03
082400 2320N 09412W 3756 08035 0410 -187 -306 359011 013 001 001 00
082430 2322N 09411W 3757 08035 0411 -186 -423 355011 011 000 001 03
082500 2325N 09411W 3760 08029 0411 -188 -334 356010 012 000 001 00
082530 2327N 09410W 3753 08044 0413 -186 -377 341012 012 000 000 03
082600 2330N 09410W 3759 08032 0413 -185 -457 338013 013 000 000 03
082630 2333N 09410W 3759 08034 0414 -185 -453 339012 013 001 000 00
082700 2335N 09409W 3758 08037 0415 -185 -431 338011 012 006 000 00
082730 2338N 09409W 3759 08034 0415 -185 -438 337010 011 006 000 00
082800 2341N 09408W 3758 08037 0415 -185 -440 337008 008 007 000 00
082830 2343N 09408W 3759 08036 0416 -185 -437 329007 007 001 000 00
082900 2346N 09407W 3759 08036 0416 -185 -444 327007 008 001 001 00

End of mission

Chris_in_Tampa · #1088 Postby **Chris_in_Tampa** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:05 am

Second vortex is above and to the left of the first:

artist · #1089 Postby **artist** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 7:46 am

last transmitted VDM from earlier flight -

000
URNT12 KNHC 100759
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152011
A. 10/07:20:00Z
B. 20 deg 05 min N
093 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1405 m
D. 33 kt
E. 181 deg 73 nm
F. 258 deg 37 kt
G. 181 deg 62 nm
H. 1000 mb
I. 16 C / 1464 m
J. 18 C / 1463 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0515A NATE OB 09
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 07:36:50Z
;

HurricaneRobert · #1090 Postby **HurricaneRobert** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:47 am

Maybe it's subtropical.

artist · #1091 Postby **artist** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:12 am

a flight has just taken off towards Nate. Can someone post the obs please?
Mission 06 to Nate

artist · #1092 Postby **artist** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:13 am

URNT15 KNHC 101450
AF305 0615A NATE HDOB 01 20110910
144030 3024N 08855W 0167 ///// //// //// +155 360000 000 /// /// 25
144100 3024N 08855W 0167 ///// //// //// +155 360000 000 /// /// 25
144130 3024N 08855W 0167 ///// //// //// +155 360000 000 /// /// 25
144200 3024N 08855W 0167 ///// //// //// +155 360000 000 /// /// 25
144230 3024N 08855W 0168 ///// 0159 +395 +156 360000 000 /// /// 23
144300 3024N 08855W 0168 ///// 0159 +342 +156 360000 000 /// /// 23
144330 3024N 08855W 0168 ///// 0159 +287 +157 360000 000 /// /// 23
144400 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0159 +260 +160 360000 000 /// /// 23
144430 3025N 08855W 0169 ///// 0159 +256 +164 360000 000 /// /// 23
144500 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0160 +248 +169 360000 000 /// /// 23
144530 3025N 08855W 0169 ///// 0160 +243 +175 360000 000 /// /// 23
144600 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0160 +245 +182 360000 000 /// /// 23
144630 3025N 08855W 0165 ///// 0159 +253 +188 360000 000 /// /// 23
144700 3025N 08855W 0169 ///// 0160 +258 +194 360000 000 /// /// 23
144730 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0160 +255 +200 360000 000 /// /// 23
144800 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0160 +259 +205 360000 000 /// /// 23
144830 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0160 +260 +210 360000 000 /// /// 23
144900 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0160 +259 +215 360000 000 /// /// 23
144930 3025N 08855W 0169 ///// 0160 +258 +220 360000 000 /// /// 23
145000 3025N 08855W 0169 ///// 0160 +260 +225 360000 000 /// /// 23
$$
;

Cranica · #1093 Postby **Cranica** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:58 am

Actually what it reminds me of are the weird late-season storms from 2005 (Epsilon and friends)

artist · #1094 Postby **artist** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:59 am

there have been no more reports from recon for Nate.

#1095 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:02 am

Looks like a subtropical cyclone to me. In September in the southern Gulf??? What is up with this season???

artist · #1096 Postby **artist** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:12 am

URNT15 KNHC 101610
AF305 0615A NATE HDOB 02 20110910
160030 2530N 08954W 3759 08057 0440 -190 -229 229016 016 /// /// 03
160100 2527N 08954W 3761 08048 0439 -195 -228 234017 017 /// /// 03
160130 2525N 08954W 3759 08058 0439 -196 -228 235016 017 /// /// 03
160200 2522N 08953W 3759 08058 0440 -199 -227 226016 016 /// /// 03
160230 2519N 08953W 3759 08059 0439 -199 -227 223016 017 /// /// 03
160300 2517N 08953W 3759 08061 0440 -200 -226 226017 018 /// /// 03
160330 2514N 08953W 3758 08061 0440 -201 -226 222015 016 /// /// 03
160400 2511N 08953W 3761 08053 0439 -201 -226 232014 014 /// /// 03
160430 2509N 08953W 3758 08066 0439 -200 -226 233014 014 /// /// 03
160500 2506N 08953W 3759 08055 0438 -200 -227 232015 016 /// /// 03
160530 2503N 08952W 3758 08059 0438 -198 -227 227017 017 /// /// 03
160600 2501N 08952W 3759 08057 0438 -200 -228 239016 016 /// /// 03
160630 2458N 08952W 3758 08062 0437 -199 -228 238015 015 /// /// 03
160700 2455N 08952W 3759 08057 0437 -198 -228 239015 015 /// /// 03
160730 2453N 08952W 3758 08065 0439 -196 -229 236014 015 /// /// 03
160800 2450N 08952W 3759 08058 0439 -195 -229 240013 014 /// /// 03
160830 2447N 08952W 3758 08061 0438 -198 -228 241012 013 /// /// 03
160900 2445N 08951W 3762 08048 0437 -195 -228 242011 012 /// /// 03
160930 2442N 08951W 3758 08057 0439 -196 -229 233012 013 /// /// 03
161000 2439N 08951W 3759 08058 0440 -196 -229 232011 012 /// /// 03
$$
;

artist · #1097 Postby **artist** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:14 am

Recon is reporting again for Nate. Can someone take this mission and post obs? Look for Nate as the storm name as Marie is also being reported here in between sets.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?

Just hit refresh every few minutes.

dwsqos2 · #1098 Postby **dwsqos2** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:29 am

The Euro's intensity progs for Nate have been horrid. The September 10 0Z run deepened Nate to 971 mb by 0Z of September 11. Somehow, I don't see that happening.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

artist · #1099 Postby **artist** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:34 am

Will someone please pick up Nates obs?

artist · #1100 Postby **artist** » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:35 am

3 missing

URNT15 KNHC 101630
AF305 0615A NATE HDOB 04 20110910
162030 2355N 09025W 3759 08063 0444 -200 -228 178005 006 /// /// 03
162100 2353N 09027W 3758 08064 0445 -200 -228 179007 008 /// /// 03
162130 2351N 09029W 3758 08071 0445 -200 -228 169006 006 /// /// 03
162200 2349N 09031W 3758 08065 0442 -200 -228 166007 007 /// /// 03
162230 2347N 09033W 3758 08059 0443 -200 -229 162007 007 /// /// 03
162300 2344N 09035W 3759 08064 0442 -202 -229 157009 010 /// /// 03
162330 2342N 09037W 3758 08065 0442 -205 -230 160011 011 /// /// 03
162400 2340N 09039W 3759 08062 0442 -205 -230 165013 014 /// /// 03
162430 2338N 09040W 3758 08062 0440 -202 -231 168014 015 /// /// 03
162500 2336N 09042W 3758 08066 0441 -205 -231 167015 015 /// /// 03
162530 2334N 09044W 3761 08052 0440 -205 -232 164014 014 /// /// 03
162600 2332N 09046W 3759 08060 0441 -205 -233 164014 014 /// /// 03
162630 2330N 09048W 3758 08064 0441 -205 -233 164014 014 /// /// 03
162700 2328N 09050W 3759 08064 0441 -205 -233 164014 014 /// /// 03
162730 2326N 09052W 3759 08060 0441 -205 -233 159015 015 /// /// 03
162800 2324N 09054W 3758 08059 0440 -205 -233 159015 015 /// /// 03
162830 2322N 09056W 3758 08063 0441 -204 -233 158017 017 /// /// 03
162900 2320N 09058W 3759 08061 0441 -204 -233 159017 018 /// /// 03
162930 2318N 09100W 3767 08040 0440 -201 -233 159018 018 /// /// 03
163000 2316N 09102W 3782 08021 0439 -200 -233 157018 018 /// /// 03

ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Re: ATL: NATE - Recon

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Re: ATL: NATE - Models

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