WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm (20W)

[ManilaTC]

Its trying to wrap itself up...

[Cranica]

Hmm this one's acting like Songda, I don't know if it's the shear but there are times that it doesn't look as good as it did a while ago. I'll give this some more hours to see if this is really going to get its act together.

Keep in mind that it's going into late morning in that part of the world, which is typically the weakest time for storms of this sort as I understand it.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just made a video on Nesat and Haitang here. (almost sure I'm saying Haitang wrong)

Some of my thoughts though, and gave storm2k a good shout out again.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS3TePP2WVs[/youtube]

[ManilaTC]

** WTPQ20 RJTD 250600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1117 NESAT (1117)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 14.6N 129.3E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 15.7N 125.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 270600UTC 16.9N 120.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 280600UTC 17.5N 116.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Continues its slide slightly south of west now
-6HRS: 14.8 130.8
-3HRS: 14.7 130.0
at03Z: 14.6 129.3

[dexterlabio]

ECM now projecting this to hit Casiguran and exit through Ilocos Sur.

I may have to take back my words upon saying that this is somehow "struggling"...I put the concept of Dmax out of my thoughts lol, the spiral banding is still excellent in all portions of the storm.

[phwxenthusiast]

there's some dry air evident on the AMSRE MWI...

[dexterlabio]

Yes Rob weather is perfectly fine here in the metro as you mentioned in your video update, except at times it's become cloudy but overall it's sunny and hot. It makes me think that others haven't heard about the storm yet because some are asking if there is really a storm coming. As of now, most people who were victims of Ketsana's onslaught 2 years ago are remembering the event especially in the city of Marikina.

[RobWESTPACWX]

It's only been two years since Ketsana, seems like so long ago.

[oaba09]

latest from JTWC...



WTPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.9N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.2N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 128.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
250459Z AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AMSR-E
IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS, BASED ON
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65-78 KNOTS. TY 20W IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED TAUS (430 NM SPREAD IN
TAU 120 FORECASTS) PRIMARILY DUE TO THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH TRACKS
THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD (INTO THE STEERING RIDGE) TOWARD HONG KONG.
EXCLUDING THE GFS MODEL, THE SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER AT 240
NM AND IS CENTERED OVER HAINAN ISLAND. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAU 96/120 MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS. TY 20W IS STILL EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY BETWEEN 115-130 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TY 20W WILL WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES LUZON BUT SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 21W (HAITANG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

It's only been two years since Ketsana, seems like so long ago.

Yet the victims of that storm won't be able to forget how bad it was. And tomorrow marks the exact day when Ketsana brought the record-breaking rainfall in Metro Manila. The moral lesson learned during that tragedy (well except for maintaining cleanliness the environment) is to be aware and alert at all times. Whatever the outcome this time from Nesat, I really hope people are ready.

[dexterlabio]

TPPN11 PGTW 250905

A. TYPHOON 20W (NESAT)

B. 25/0832Z

C. 14.6N

D. 128.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


KIENZLE

*edit: i realized the photo I posted is old.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Model consensus has shifted much farther south, looks like they are picking up on the system following the Tropical Storm.

[dexterlabio]

Now I can say that this storm is having issues with dry air, very much like Songda struggling as it approaches north of Bicol Region. Center of Nesat not really looking good.

[dhoeze]

i pray to god that this time it wont form...
We'll be monitoring this system closely.

[hypercane]

Looking a bit better the past few frames, with an eye appearing...

[ManilaTC]

EYE!

[dhoeze]

Hope our mountain ranges along the east side of Luzon weakens this typhoon...

[dexterlabio]

Hmm that looks like an eye already being traced, but still I'm not too stoke on this to ramp up soon. Also I just noticed that the storm decreased in motion and moved slightly north of west (or maybe because of the shooting convection on the center), could also be the effect of the organizing center. The thing that really concerns me right now is the rains it could bring to the metro, especially that it may end up moving closer to Central Luzon because of the ridge.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hope our mountain ranges along the east side of Luzon weakens this typhoon...

Really do hope so to, flip side to that though is those mountains will cause a lot of flooding and landslides.


Any thing being put out there yet in Manilla? I noticed TFC really hasn't been talking about it to much .

[RL3AO]

JTWC forecast is scary. Luzon into South China and heading towards Hanoi.