ATL: RICHARD - Models

[Vortex]

Man, I went into hibernation for awhile and here we have Richard.....just going by recent guidance I would say a Yuc landfall is pretty good bet. Need to do my homework before I venture to guess what happens afterwards......heat potential though or MHP looks ok to me....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

granted if the upper air environment is condusive to intensification after the exit....


good to be back....

good to see you around rock...

[Ntxw]

It's just one run, the trend has been south though got to admit. How many times this year have we seen storms go off into CA/Mexico via the western highway? Won't be the first that's for sure, eerie how some things don't change!

[MWatkins]

Wouldnt be surprised, at all, if the 0Z GFDL/HWRF models shift north again. Looks to be a short term break in the ridge like the 12Z guidance.

MW

[Ivanhater]

00z HWRF into Belize

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
No such shift North. Not likely to happen at all IMO. Trends pretty much set.

[MWatkins]

^^^
No such shift North. Not likely to happen at all IMO. Trends pretty much set.

Yep. Looks like I was reading the break incorrectly...there is still a lot that can change, but this is looking more and more like a rain problem for Belize and Honduras.

The fact that this did not ramp up in the last 24 hours has pretty much locked a westward path in.

See you in 2011, maybe!

Mike

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
There is still time overnight for Richard I believe to ramp up pretty rapidly. Tonight, Richard has a good structure and if im reading shear maps it appears an odd little 5 Knot increase of shear has just recently impacted Richard, maybe that helped hurt it earlier today. The only variable we cannot account for yet is what Richard does in ideal conditions. I believe by midday tomorrow we can see a considerable increase in organization with Richard.

[crownweather]

Is it me or has the 06Z GFS model shifted slightly to the north?? Also 06Z GFS forecasts it to seemingly sit over the Bay of Campeche for a while next week waiting for the trough to essentially shear it out.

[boca]

Florida is going to dodge another storm the 2010 streak continues.

[x-y-no]

6z HWRF stalls it on the coast of Belize at 84 hours, finally takes it inland into Belize at 120 hours.

That would be a nasty rain event for them.

[x-y-no]

6z GFDL hits the Belize/Mexico border, exits the Yucatan at the NW corner.

[cycloneye]

6z GFDL hits the Belize/Mexico border, exits the Yucatan at the NW corner.

Jan,is interesting that 06z GFDL after it crosses Yucatan, it actually gets stronger in the GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[boca]

How unusual would it be to get a Luisiana hit at the end of Oct,throw out climotology.

[otowntiger]

^^^
No such shift North. Not likely to happen at all IMO. Trends pretty much set.

Yep. Looks like I was reading the break incorrectly...there is still a lot that can change, but this is looking more and more like a rain problem for Belize and Honduras.

The fact that this did not ramp up in the last 24 hours has pretty much locked a westward path in.

See you in 2011, maybe!

Mike

Yep another yawner. I was hoping we could get some nice soaking rain out of this. Apparently it'll all be kept way to the west. Our dry season started early. It's been 23 days of no rain here.

[boca]

^^^
No such shift North. Not likely to happen at all IMO. Trends pretty much set.

Yep. Looks like I was reading the break incorrectly...there is still a lot that can change, but this is looking more and more like a rain problem for Belize and Honduras.

The fact that this did not ramp up in the last 24 hours has pretty much locked a westward path in.

See you in 2011, maybe!

Mike

Yep another yawner. I was hoping we could get some nice soaking rain out of this. Apparently it'll all be kept way to the west. Our dry season started early. It's been 23 days of no rain here.

Where not going to get rain in this state due to La Nina till next June happy fire season

[Blown Away]

Buried over Yucatan or big storm for SFL seemed like the only real possibilites. Looks like hurricane landfall and death over Yucatan, for now. Looking at the 06z models am I reading correctly that some have slowed some w/ a delayed landfall on the Yucatan?

[Stormcenter]

Not unusual but unlikely and if it were to happen it more then likely
would be a sheared mess.

How unusual would it be to get a Luisiana hit at the end of Oct,throw out climotology.

[LarryWx]

Florida is going to dodge another storm the 2010 streak continues.

Boca,
It is way to early to give up on this for Florida, especially south FL.

[Ntxw]

Florida is going to dodge another storm the 2010 streak continues.

Boca,
It is way to early to give up on this for Florida, especially south FL.

I think for now Florida is pretty safe. There's nothing to indicate Richard will make a trip there via a strong tropical entity, if anything it's trending even more safe for the peninsula.

[LarryWx]

Florida is going to dodge another storm the 2010 streak continues.

Boca,
It is way to early to give up on this for Florida, especially south FL.

I think for now Florida is pretty safe. There's nothing to indicate Richard will make a trip there via a strong tropical entity, if anything it's trending even more safe for the peninsula.

Ntxw,
However, Boca's wording suggested that he was giving up totally ("going to dodge another storm"). I'm just saying that it is still much too early in my mind to know that with very high confidence. Even your wording allows you to cover your behind since you said "I think for now Florida is pretty safe". The words "for now" and "pretty" are qualifiers of sorts. You didn't say "I think Florida is safe", which would be the equivalent of what Boca said in my mind.