ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[KWT]

06z GFS out to 72hrs and shows Danielle and a strong Earl....0plus a developing wave behind it all heading for Daneille's weakness...

Anyway Danielle still gaining some longitude by 72hrs, heading NW and probably will end up very close to Bermuda, would imagine it'd be close enough to Bermuda to require recon!

[ColinDelia]

Welcome, JPM

[KWT]

GFS suggests a turn at exactly the same time as the GFDL at around 62W...

Close enough to Bermuda to require serious watching though for sure!

[KWT]

Yep GFS recurves this one as well at 60W, looking like the models overall have done a good job way out from 240-300hrs at clocking the overall pattern...

Could be a threat to Bermuda and possibly the Azores depending on how sharp the curve is...

[Nimbus]

Looks like it is trying to turn up into the ridge early which would help it gain some latitude.
If that is the case it may stall before stairstepping WNW again later in the day.
One good thing about interacting with several troughs would be that it might cause some shear.
So far Danielle has had her CDO blown around quite a bit by dry shear and that has inhibited development.

[KWT]

I'm going to be interested to see what the GFDL/HWRF does this run and whether they edge east or west, its going to be possibly fairly tight for Bermuda and whilst there is some agreement for it to go east, its more then close enough for a 6-9 more westward motion puts Bermuda at proper risk...

[JPM]

A westward moving hurricane in the Atlantic basin, especially in late August must be monitered. Computer models are guidance, one should look at the surface and atmospheric information and using observation, their expertise etc.....-and use the models as nothing more then guidance ("computer guidance"---it's called guidance for a very good reason). Furthermore, with the current storm; the computer models have been very erratic and inconsistent recently and when they were consistent, THEY'RE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, UNIVERSAL FORECAST WAS WRONG (I know, there was 1 rogue model). Time will tell of course, but I believe by tonight or early in the morning we will have a good idea.

[KWT]

GFDL gives Bermuda solid TS winds on this run, and is probably only 100 miles or so away from 1/2 type winds...also slightly moves NW again at the end of the run...

HWRF also bends back NW right at the end of the run....hmmm....

[KWT]

Heading NW on the 12z run out to 72hrs, further west then the 06z run thus far and implies a Bermuda threat of a direct hit.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not sold by any means on a recurve like I was with Danielle...

This has a greater chance of effecting the US east coast.....

[Riptide]

Don't look at the GFS ensembles.

[hurricaneCW]

Don't look at the GFS ensembles.

Why?

[Riptide]

Don't look at the GFS ensembles.

Why?

Tis a rather close recurve and they model a sharp turn similar to what we saw on the 18z GFS, yesterday.
This shows us that the model isn't in 100 % agreement with itself yet and also the fact that the ensembles are farther west.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _Loop.html

[hurricaneCW]

Danielle already appears to be turning more to the NNW, or about a 325-330 degree heading right now, so it could be curving a lot further east than forecast.

[Duke95]

Did that run have Earl and (possible) Fiona just dissipating in the Atlantic or am I seeing things?

[Riptide]

Danielle already appears to be turning more to the NNW, or about a 325-330 degree heading right now, so it could be curving a lot further east than forecast.

It is just a small wobble, the surprises come later.

[Riptide]

Did that run have Fiona just dissipating in the Atlantic or am I seeing things?

The ensembles have a lower rendering resolution. Here is the operational run.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

GFDL



HWRF

[AdamFirst]

GFDL and HWRF showing the bend...interesting

[hurricaneCW]

Maybe Canada? Though the gfs shoves this almost due east after recurve. It practically gets near the Azores as Earl arrives near Bermuda.