WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya its NCEPS, 18Z run heres the link.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=gfs_wpac&set=Core

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow, definitely looks like it's undergoing RI now - winding up very tightly!

[RobWESTPACWX]

That poor area to the W of it is going to play some sort of role in its development. Possibly add more moisture to the southern periphery, its not strong enough to effect its overall movement I think. What are your guys thoughts?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Agreed as well TH.. (another H Def shot showing it much more organized.

[phwxenthusiast]

Ya its NCEPS, 18Z run heres the link.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=gfs_wpac&set=Core

whoa, thank you for the link!!!
i have two other sites i use to monitor GFS runs but i think this one's better...

[supercane]

00Z JMA analysis:
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 11.7N 141.2E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Could you pass those sites along PHWX, Penn State has a nice 4 panel on theirs but they always seem to be late on posting the runs.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Great sat image there Rob, thanks for posting it.

JMA should really think about upgrading this at 06z however I doubt they will since they're always slow off the mark. Best looking TD I've seen in a while!

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

[RobWESTPACWX]

NGPS still showing the re-curve towards Okinawa.. O the debate continues. Who will be effected....

[phwxenthusiast]

Could you pass those sites along PHWX, Penn State has a nice 4 panel on theirs but they always seem to be late on posting the runs.

yeah i also use PSU... and they're always late lol (i don't update the site 'til 06UTC anyway haha)...
the other one's Plymouth, i don't know if you've visited it already but here's the link...

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grb-comp.html

offers both GFS and ECMWF... just choose GFS/MRF-NH for forecasts up to 10days and of course "W. Pac" for the region lol... graphics' are not as "good" as the navy site but still great nonetheless...

[supercane]

Rob, GFS run you're showing is old. Here's a comparison of the GFS runs over the past 24hr. Note the shift away from a definite recurve between yesterday's 06 and 12Z runs and the more recent 18 and 00Z runs.

[Infdidoll]

T10 - No, never met Rob personally...but started following his Weather Underground blog after I found some blogs there tracking weather in the West Pac. Casually mentioned this place and now he's here! Great addition to the S2k family. Us military and dependent military folks all are kind of like family anyway. Being attached to the military is a lifestyle.

Pretty impressive storm shaping up! Flipping a coin on direction...I'm still leaning towards the Philippines route due to that high pressure area, but that area could skirt off out of the way leaving no northern steering that would push this off to the West. Something to watch with interest. Either way, looks like it may be myself or my other half facing this. He's working down in an area that could likely be in the path of this storm, right now, should ECMW's models prove correct.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Supercane, I did post the 18Z run for GFS, the 12Z above is from NGPS still showing the NE recurve..... Good note on how GFS is picking up more on the ridge though, I wonder if NGPS will follow suit.

[dexterlabio]

Okay, I was surprised to see a new TD out here. I'm seeing a "mid-latitude trough that would weaken the ridge" scenario, could the trough weaken the ridge substantially and this system following the trough to the northeast? Any thoughts?

Here's an idea of what it's like chasing up there - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLCi9qLH880

Our Jeepney (yes, we used a Jeepney to chase a storm) broke down, got hit by live power lines, swept through a town by a flash flood, stuck in a landslide and almost swept away by another flood! Beautiful part of the country though and the people as always are awesome!

Jollybee - I like the spaghetti and meat sauce they do

Back on topic, ramping up nicely:

TXPN23 KNES 130314
SIMWIR

A. 15W (NONAME)

B. 13/0230Z

C. 12.0N

D. 141.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...MICROWAVE PRESENTATION SHOWS WELL DEFINED LLC IN AMSU
PASSES ALONG WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE VISIBLE ANIMATION SHOWING MULTIPLE
WELL ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES AND A SMALL ELONGATED BUT PERSISTENT
CDO FEATURE ALL POINT TO RAPID ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.
EIR BANDING WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.0. PT IS 2.5. FT
BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/2151Z 12.4N 141.2E AMSU
13/0007Z 11.9N 141.0E AMSU


...GALLINA

Hey there, Jollibee I like their cheeseburger with fries...and also the spaghetti and chicken meal

And by the way, that's nice documentation on Parma. Were you in Cagayan province on the video?

[Typhoon Hunter]

And by the way, that's nice documentation on Parma. Were you in Cagayan province on the video?

Hey! I was near Pampalona which I guess is near Illocos Norte / Cagayan border. We were trying to get to Aparri but ended up getting eyewalled whilst we were on the road.

Nice burst of convection right now continues with cooling cloud tops near centre!

[RobWESTPACWX]

15W Update! My thoughts.....
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDNqwJ27NXw[/youtube]

[supercane]

JMA issuing advisories as of 06Z:

WTPQ20 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 11.7N 141.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 12.0N 139.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



Latest Dvorak from PGTW T2.5, meaning likely upgrade at 09Z given agreement with KNES' T2.5:
TPPN11 PGTW 130618
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (SW OF GUAM)
B. 13/0530Z
C. 11.6N
D. 141.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A .40 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF A 2.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A 3.0.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/0146Z 12.0N 140.8E TRMM
13/0339Z 11.6N 141.4E AMSR
GATES

Improved microwave appearance:


Latest ECMWF over Luzon, into S China Sea, and China landfall. Below image at T+144 = Tue Oct 19 0Z:

[Typhoon Hunter]

And here's the ECMWF chart at 240hrs:



The 00z run shows a strong storm into the Philippines and S China Sea!

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 140.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 140.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 12.0N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.5N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.2N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.0N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.8N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.5N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.3N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 140.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (FIFTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTIPLE RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES (130339Z AMSRE 89 GHZ AND 130442Z AMSU 89 GHZ) SHOW
TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (> 28
DEGREES C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TS 15W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR), ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MAINLAND JAPAN, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR TAU 36, A MID-
LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND REBUILD
WESTWARD ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE ALONG A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH AN AREA OF HIGHLY FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OHC. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//