WPAC: Ex-Severe Tropical Storm MALOU (1009/10W)

[StormingB81]

WHat do you think supercane nowhere near the 60-75 knots called for earlier or you think there could still be time

[supercane]

Well 10W is still pretty disorganized now:


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The JMA and JTWC actually don't differ too much, with expectations of 5 and 10kt of intensification within 24hr respectively. The question is how strong the system will be in the 36-48hr range at the CPA to Okinawa. A typical rate of intensification is one T number a day, but given the current state of disorganization, 10W will likely take longer than average to consolidate. I think therefore that even if conditions become more favorable that 10W will only have time to strengthen to a moderate tropical storm prior to Okinawa, and typhoon strength is unlikely.

[supercane]

WTPN33 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 22.1N 134.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 134.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.1N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.5N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.9N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 28.4N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 30.4N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 33.3N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 36.8N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 134.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W
(TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL, POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER.
A 021753Z AMSU-B IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION, BUT LOCATED
MORE OVER THE CENTER OF A WEAK, POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A
LARGE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) THAT IS STARTING TO
REFLECT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE TUTT IS PROVIDING SOUTHERLY SHEAR
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF TD 10W, AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS
ENHANCING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COUNTERACTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF TD 10W. AS THE TUTT MOVES TO THE WEST, THE
NEGATIVE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, AND THE SYSTEM WILL START
TO INTENSIFY AT A MORE RAPID RATE (AFTER 24 HOURS). AN APPROACHING
SMALLER TUTT FROM THE EAST MIGHT ALSO ENHANCE OUTFLOW AND ENCOURAGE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND
MAY SLOW NEAR TAU 72 AS IT RUNS INTO A WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
RIDGE BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT BY A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NEAR
TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH NOGAPS AND EGRR
BRINGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS THE EXTENSION OF
THE RIDGE. GFDN IS LOSING THE CIRCULATION EARLY IN THE MODEL RUN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT
SYSTEM.
//

[theavocado]

I see Taiwan actually flew around Kompasu a few days ago. This is a little surprising as they only usually do recon on systems which are a direct threat to them.

Taiwan is one of the main players in ITOP, so they probably flew on it as part of a larger data collection mission.

[theavocado]

Predicting gusts of about 80-mph. Kadena reported their strongest gust at just over 50 mph with Kompasu, I think.

Ah, but Izena, one of the islands near northern Okinawa reported 39.7 m/s gusts to 56.4 m/s at 18:28. Thats 80kts, gusts 113kts! If Kompasu was just a little left of track, it would have placed Kadena in the "more dangerous semi-circle" and in the stronger winds associated with the eye wall.

[Infdidoll]

Predicting gusts of about 80-mph. Kadena reported their strongest gust at just over 50 mph with Kompasu, I think.

Ah, but Izena, one of the islands near northern Okinawa reported 39.7 m/s gusts to 56.4 m/s at 18:28. Thats 80kts, gusts 113kts! If Kompasu was just a little left of track, it would have placed Kadena in the "more dangerous semi-circle" and in the stronger winds associated with the eye wall.

They did get hammered up to the north of us, but the more densely populated southern half of the island was spared. I was just pointing out that this tropical storm, if it hits southern Okinawa, might actually feel stronger or equal to Kompasu for those of us who didn't experience Kompasu's typhoon force winds. We shouldn't be thrown off our guard because Kompasu was a typhoon and this is JUST a tropical storm and take the same precautions we otherwise would, is what I not-so-eloquently meant.

I hope I cleared up that up!

[supercane]

Thought you made perfect sense, Infdidoll.

WTPQ20 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 22.1N 134.2E POOR
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 032100UTC 24.1N 128.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Latest vis:



TXPN25 KNES 022216
SIMWIR
A. 10W (NONAME)
B. 02/2032Z
C. 21.9N
D. 134.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS SLOW TO DEVELOP WITH DT=2.5 BASED ON 4/10
BANDING. MET=3.0. FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SWANSON
=

[StormingB81]

10w looking ALOT better then it did only a few hours ago...

[StormingB81]

New advisory is out now The calling for only 40-50knot winds here in Okinawa...Guess the Weekend will be spared. However this forecast has changed ALL 6 times an advisory has come out with the winds so who knows. I guess we will see at 5pm

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 23.1N 132.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 21KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 040300UTC 24.3N 128.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =




WTPN33 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 22.9N 133.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 133.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.6N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.2N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.4N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.7N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 30.8N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 33.1N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 36.2N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 132.3E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W
(TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W
(KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT
SYSTEM.
//




WDPN33 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W/
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340
NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE WEST. FLARING, DEEP
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
BUT ONLY WEAK INFLOW BANDING IS SEEN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SOME OUTFLOW TO THE EAST,
BUT THAT THE TUTT IS IMPINGING ON THE OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
A 022303Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A SYMMETRICAL LLCC
AND A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. POSITION IS BASED ON THE 022303Z
SSMIS PASS AND A POSITION FIX FROM PGTW WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY FIX FROM PGTW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS NOW MORE TO THE WEST
OF THE TRACK FORECAST AT 021800Z IN RESPONSE TO A WESTERN FINGER OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE INITIAL HALF OF THE FORECAST IS
FUNDAMENTALLY THE SAME.
B. TD 10W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN
AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. EARLY
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL BEHAVE IN
THE FIRST 24 HOURS, WITH ECMWF, GFS AND UKMET TRACKING THE SYSTEM
MORE WESTWARD IN WHAT IS BELIEVED TO BE EXCESSIVE DIRECT INTERACTION
WITH THE TUTT TO THE WEST. NOGAPS AND WBAR HAVE A TRACK THAT CLOSER
APPROXIMATES THE SHAPE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN HOURS 36
AND 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND JOG TO THE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
MOUTH OF THE YELLOW SEA, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAKENING DUE TO
COLDER WATER, REDUCED OUTFLOW, AND MILD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ALL OF THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET
(WHICH LOSES THE CIRCULATION AT 48 HOURS) AGREE WITH THIS MOTION,
BUT IN VARYING DEGREES.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER INTO THE YELLOW
SEA AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A
PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECASTED TO BE
NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE YELLOW SEA, AND AS THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST RECEDES FROM THE EARLIER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, THE SYSTEM WILL
BE LEFT IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE COOLER WATERS IN THE NORTHERN
YELLOW SEA AND START TO FEEL THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR FROM THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SUPPORTS THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND AS EXPECTED IN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT, THERE
ARE MANY POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS, BUT ALL THE MODELS HAVE IT IN THE
YELLOW SEA.//




TXPN25 KNES 030310
SIMWIR
A. 10W (NONAME)
B. 03/0232Z
C. 23.2N
D. 131.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5.
MET AND PT = 2.5. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
02/2342Z 22.9N 132.8E SSMIS
...KIBLER
=



853
TCNA21 RJTD 030000
CCAA 03000 47644 NAMELESS 12225 11328 14234 215// 93122=

ASCAT still looks rather formless:

[StormingB81]

People may take offense to this however I believe that on the side of caution since forecasted winds here are supposed to be 40-50 knots and TCCOT 1 E is 50 knots or higher I think Okinawa should go in TCCOR 2 in the side of caution. It is not like anything happends switching from 3 to 2..But it is better to do that and take it away later then go 3 to 1 and people are going crazy cause the ydidnt think it would hit and trying to finish last minute things.

[supercane]

News from ITOP:

ITOP_2010 Operations Plan of the Day

Date of report(UTC): 2010/09/03 00:16
Author of report: Pat Harr
Submitted at: 2010/09/03 00:30
Operations Summary:
TD 10W/ITOP14 has maintained a steady state without any appreciable intensification. ITOP15, which is to the west of ITOP14 has also maintained a steady amount of convection. All the global models and JTWC have a consistent scenario of some interaction between 14 and 15 that results in a more intense system. However, this is not forecast to occur until after 0000 UTC 4 September and at a location that is near Okinawa. Therefore, the deployment mission has been canceled.

Current speed of 18 knots matches well with consensus speed in
medium term. Intensity is a stretch at DT2.5, however ASCAT pass
and dropsonde data sugegst 30 to 40 knots winds on NE flank.
Removing 15 knot translation speed suggests 25 knot circulation
overall.

Interaction with ITOP15 occured as expected last night and this
morning, and 14 has been constrained under strong uper level
shear together with rapid WNW movement. It is unclear whether
the vorticies will intercat further.

Upper level outflow is strong, to the east and south, but
limited to the north and especially to the west. Due to the
strong mid level steering and proximity of the upper trough
boundary forecast growth has been limited in the short term.

Note strong assymetries in gale radii. The system is help below
critical thresholds for the required survey intensities whilst
the system is south of 25 South.

[StormingB81]

Looking a little better. I dunno havent seen the other ones cept the sat radar..but on that its starting to look better...

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1009 MALOU (1009) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 23.2N 130.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 24.7N 128.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 050600UTC 27.8N 125.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 060600UTC 30.2N 125.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =



319
TCNA21 RJTD 030600
CCAA 03060 47644 NAMELESS 12232 11309 14244 220// 92919=

[supercane]

BTW, Malou was contributed by Macau. Meaning:

Agate, it is a very hard stone with bands of color and often used for ornaments. Many Macau souvenirs are made of it.

Source: HKO

[StormingB81]

Wispers of TCCOR 2..Storm must be gaining strength

[dexterlabio]

The area is so cloudy and it seems like TD10W belongs to the monsoon trough.

[Chacor]

Interesting, JMA upgraded to TS Malou at T2.0. Unsurprisingly not much strengthening forecast.

[StormingB81]

It just look liek a blob no development or formation at all

[dexterlabio]

WTPN33 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 23.8N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 28.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 29.7N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 31.3N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 33.2N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.7N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 130.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH DEEPER
CONVECTION THAT IS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS A TUTT CELL TO THE
WEST THAT IS IMPINGING THE OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 030516Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN THROUGH TAU
72. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO A WEAK STEERING
FLOW IN THE YELLOW SEA AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TS MALOU WILL THEN
WEAKEN DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTHERN YELLOW SEA AND
EXPOSURE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 48 THEN OFFER VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, ERRATIC STORM MOTION AFTER TAU 72 IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN