ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Maritimer71]

Latest from CHC - just starting to get some gust and rain... not bad though... yet.

WOCN31 CWHX 041200
HURRICANE EARL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SATURDAY
04 SEPTEMBER 2010.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 12.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.8 N
AND LONGITUDE 65.8 W... ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES OR 115 KM SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965 MB. EARL IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 28 KNOTS... 52 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 04 9.00 AM 42.8N 65.8W 965 65 120
SEP 04 3.00 PM 45.3N 63.4W 970 55 102 TRANSITIONING
SEP 04 9.00 PM 47.9N 61.1W 977 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 3.00 AM 50.0N 59.1W 982 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 9.00 AM 51.9N 56.6W 988 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 3.00 PM 53.6N 55.0W 990 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 9.00 PM 55.4N 53.5W 991 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 3.00 AM 57.0N 55.9W 991 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 9.00 AM 58.2N 57.9W 991 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 3.00 PM 58.8N 59.3W 991 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 9.00 PM 59.4N 60.4W 992 35 65 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

EARL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ... OR BRUSH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND MAKE LANDFALL
IN LUNENBURG OR HALIFAX COUNTY CLOSER TO NOON.

HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR HALIFAX, LUNENBURG, QUEENS,
SHELBURNE, YARMOUTH AND GUYSBOROUGH COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR ALL OF MAINLAND NOVA
SCOTIA, CAPE BRETON ISLAND, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND, ILES DE LA
MADELEINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK.

THESE TROPICAL WARNINGS ARE MATCHED WITH CORRESPONDING PUBLIC WIND
WARNINGS FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 90 AND 110 KM/H. GUSTS OF THIS SPEED
COULD CAUSE TREE BRANCHES AND LIMBS TO BREAK AND SOME TREES TO COME
DOWN. THAT COULD RESULT IN DOWNED UTILITY LINES AND RELATED POWER
FAILURES. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME DAMAGE TO SIGNAGE, ROOFING
MATERIALS AND BUILDING CLADDING. GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 130 KM/H REMAIN A
CONCERN WHICH COULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CONTINUED FOR KENT COUNTY AND
KOUCHIBOUGUAC NATIONAL PARK.

HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FOR MANY
HOURS AND RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY PORTIONS OF THE
MARITIMES WITH EITHER 50+ MM IN TOTAL OR 25 MM/HR RATES.

WAVE IMPACTS AT THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA COULD LEAD TO
SOME BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE, ALTHOUGH THE TIDES
ARE RUNNING LOW (NEAP) AND THE ARRIVAL TIME MAY BE NEAR LOW TIDE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR LURCHER AND BROWNS BANK.
GALE OR STORM WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR MOST OTHER PORTIONS OF
THE MARITIME MARINE DISTRICT. GALE WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR
WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS.

STORM FORCE WINDS ARRIVED AT THE BROWNS BANK BUOY AT 6AM ADT AND THE
WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE BUOY AT 7AM ADT. GALE FORCE GUSTS STARTED BEING
REPORTED FROM BACCARO POINT AT 6AM ADT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF EARL HIGH WAVES AND POUNDING SURF CAN BE
EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING COASTLINES.

THE THREAT OF STORM SURGE FLOODING IS LOW FOR REGIONS AROUND
THE BAY OF FUNDY DUE TO A RUN OF NEAP TIDES. THE GREATEST SURGE
THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA, AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF ST LAWRENCE WHICH INCLUDES THE NORTHUMBERLAND STRAIT.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEORLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
EARLIER AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE SHOWED WINDS BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH ALTHOUGH THE STORM RETAINS A CLEAR SATELLITE EYE SIGNATURE.
IR GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A REORGANIZATION OFF THE CORE WITH AN EYE.
COMPOSITE RADAR HAS CAPTURED A CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

BUOY B44024 REPORTED 54 KTS AT 10Z WITH MSLP 969 MB WITH PRESSURE
DROPPING RAPIDLY. 11Z REPORT FROM B44024 SHOWED STORM CENTRE JUST
PASSING THE BUOY IN THE PREVIOUS HOUR WITH A PRESSURE REPORT OF
967 MB AND 50 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS ... SO WE FIX MSLP OF EARL AT 965
MB. BUOY B44150 REPORTED 11Z MAX WINDS OF 50 KTS. THIS COMBINED WITH
SATELLITE INTERPRETATION PROVIDES OUR RATIONALE FOR MAINTAINING
EARL AS A MARGINAL HURRICANE.

B. PROGNOSTIC
SHORT-TERM EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THE CENTRE OF EARL COMING IN NEAR
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN LUNENBURG AND HALIFAX COUNTIES. BEYOND THAT
EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE DIVERGENT THAN IT WAS A DAY AGO
... WITH A SPLIT IN SOLUTIONS. ACCORDINGLY OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS IS LOW.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
ASCAT SATELLITE WIND DERIVATIONS SHOW THE DISTORTION OF WIND
FIELDS HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE STRONGEST BAND IN ITS
SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. SO FAR, SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE SPIRAL
WARM TOPPED CONVECTION IMPLIES THAT RAIN BAND STRUCTURE MAY
DOMINATE UPON LANDFALL. HENCE OVER 25 MM AN HOUR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE EXPECTED. WE SHOULD SHORTLY SEE THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLVE SUCH THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVES TOWARD
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE STORM AND NUDGE TOWARD A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOME COMPUTER MODEL RUNS
STILL SHOW A BAND OF RAIN EXTENDING EAST OF THE STORM
INTO NEWFOUNDLAND AS EARL NEARS, SIMILAR TO A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPMENT.

REGARDING RAINFALL POTENTIAL, FOR A STORM OF THIS NATURE, 2500
DIVIDED BY TWICE THE STORM SPEED IN KNOTS IS A RULE OF THUMB FOR
RAINFALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CORE. THAT ROUGHLY EQUATES TO
40 TO 70 MM POTENTIAL. THESE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH
THE OUTPUT OF LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
04/12Z 210 210 150 90 120 120 75 60 0 20 0 0
04/18Z 220 220 150 90 100 120 60 60 0 0 0 0
05/00Z 240 240 210 90 90 90 60 30 0 0 0 0
05/06Z 270 300 300 90 60 60 30 30 0 0 0 0
05/12Z 300 300 300 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 300 300 300 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 300 300 300 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 270 270 270 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 240 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 220 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 200 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

[Maritimer71]

CHC is maintaining Earl as a CAT 1 Hurricane??? The eye is south of Clark's Harbour and they are forecasting the eye to skirt the coast and possible coming ashore in Halifax.

[fox]

Wow it's some windy outside, should loose power soon

[wxman57]

media overdone something again

I definitely disagree. Earl was a large and very dangerous Category 4 hurricane that could easily have tracked 50-100 miles west of the forecast and maintained its intensity as was forecast. We do not have the ability to predict precisely where a hurricane will track or when it will weaken. In fact, I don't think that there was enough reaction to this potential very deadly threat. People will be killed next time because they didn't react quickly enough.

[ColinDelia]

People will be killed next time because they didn't react quickly enough.

And that pattern just keeps repeating itself over and over again.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Some heavy rain here the past two hours, not much in the way of wind as Earl nears landfall in NS:

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2010/09/tropical-storm-earl-makes-landfall-in.html

This storm certainly wasn't even as bad, wind & wave wise, as Noel in 2007 was here. At least not yet, but we'll see.

[CrazyC83]

Based on that buoy report and re-organization, I do agree that Earl is probably a hurricane right now.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2010/09/tropical-storm-earl-nova-scotia.html

Earl makes landfall in South-Western Nova Scotia

[wxman57]

Earl looks half way or more to ET transition now.

[CrazyC83]

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2010/09/tropical-storm-earl-nova-scotia.html

Earl makes landfall in South-Western Nova Scotia

Waiting to see land reports, but my guess for the landfall intensity at this point is 70 kt.

[CrazyC83]

Halifax: currently winds 47 mph gusting to 65 at the airport.

Beaver Island: 53 mph gusting to 64

McNabs Island: 56 mph gusting to 68

Lunenburg: 51 mph gusting to 62 (pressure 971)

Liverpool: Pressure 963 (landfall pressure likely 959mb)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Earl looks half way or more to ET transition now.

\

Agreed, Earl has to be at least Subtropical (in between) right now.

[CrazyC83]

If confirmed at 959mb (Liverpool reporting 963 with winds of near 40 kt), that would be the most intense storm to hit Canada in a long time I would think...

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Stay safe NS. I for one am glad to see Earl dissipate. My amateur observations elicited some fear in his lumbering modus operandi off Florida, wobbling as a tease just poised to take a run 50 to 100 miles to the west. Earl took my breath away at times...

[artist]

I noticed the webcam page for Nova Scotia is down. Prayers out to all there.

[CrazyC83]

Current winds in the affected area (in mph):

Tropical storm gusts
Tropical storm sustained OR 58 mph gusts
58 mph sustained OR hurricane gusts
Hurricane sustained

Beaver Island - 61 G 75
Charlottetown - 26 G 38
Greenwood - 22 G 31 (pressure 973)
Halifax Airport - 47 G 76 (pressure 976)
Halifax City - 55 G 77
Lunenburg - 41 G 52 (pressure 965)
McNabs Island - 65 G 77 (pressure 973)
Osborne Head - 63 G 77
Port Hawkesbury - 36 G 50
Sydney - 21 G 29
Truro - 31 G 43 (pressure 979)

[CrazyC83]

http://www.nspower.ca/en/home/residenti ... gemap.aspx

Right now, about 125,000 customers are without power in Nova Scotia.

[Sanibel]

So Halifax was the place to storm chase with Earl. They got the good NE shoulder of the eye and core.

[tropicana]

Halifax Stanfield International Airport (Nova Scotia) is reporting Moderate Rain at 12 noon AT ( 11amET) visibility just 1km, barometric pressure 976mb, winds SE 74km/h ( 46mph sustained) gusting to 121 km/h (75mph gust)

[CrazyC83]

I definitely believe it was a hurricane at NS landfall based on the wide spread of the observations (assuming the strongest winds were not sampled and that they are generally only hourly observations except for key sites like Halifax Airport).