ATL: KARL - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

Further north into Mexicon on 0z EURO run. Ridge not as strong, neither is the cyclone.

[Wx_Warrior]

FWIW...ridge back in

[KWT]

ECM still likes this area in about 48hrs and has been pretty keen on developing this region for days, will be interesting to see if it actually happens.

Nothing too strong but it probably does develop a TS into the Yucatan.

[ColinDelia]

These were at 0z.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 121249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC SUN SEP 12 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100912 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100912  1200   100913  0000   100913  1200   100914  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.7N  70.7W   16.5N  73.1W   16.9N  75.4W   17.5N  77.8W
BAMD    15.7N  70.7W   16.2N  73.2W   16.7N  75.6W   17.2N  78.0W
BAMM    15.7N  70.7W   16.3N  73.2W   16.8N  75.7W   17.3N  78.2W
LBAR    15.7N  70.7W   16.6N  73.4W   17.6N  76.0W   18.6N  78.3W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          39KTS          50KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          39KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100914  1200   100915  1200   100916  1200   100917  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.9N  80.4W   18.8N  85.8W   19.6N  91.0W   20.0N  95.1W
BAMD    17.7N  80.4W   18.4N  86.0W   19.2N  91.5W   19.6N  95.8W
BAMM    17.7N  80.8W   18.4N  86.6W   19.2N  92.1W   19.6N  96.4W
LBAR    19.6N  80.4W   21.6N  84.5W   23.4N  88.0W   24.9N  89.3W
SHIP        64KTS          80KTS          95KTS         107KTS
DSHP        64KTS          80KTS          50KTS          54KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.7N LONCUR =  70.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  15.2N LONM12 =  67.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  14.1N LONM24 =  64.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Macrocane]

I guess extrapolation is not a bad "model" this time

Seriously, IF it develops it bears watching even if it is just a TS or cat 1 hurricane, Stan was only a cat 1 and caused serious flooding and mudslides in the region so I'm watching carefully this system.

[KWT]

Yeah exactly and remember Hermine dropped alot of rain in this area as well recently so if the ECM came off then flooding would possibly be a big issue I'd have thought.

ECM still keen on development, hard to go against it when its that presistant on development.

[shah8]

12z CMC doesn't develop this much, but it does look like a major rainmaker into S Texas.

[KWT]

ECM makes it a moderate TS hitting the Central Yucatan and then into the BoC with very favourable conditions and rapidly drops 20mbs, probably would be a decent 1/2 into Mexico on this run.

Not unrealistic solution IMO either given La Nina.

[Wx_Warrior]

[KWT]

Landfall looks to be in a similar place to where Hermine hit, which would also enance the flooding threat even if this ends up only weakly developing...

ECM ensembles are actually quite agressive with this FWIW developing this into a decent system...

GFDL loses it but it is trackable, HWRF develops it and then *totally* loses the plot, take a look!

[ROCK]

[quote="Wx_Warrior"]


not taking the image tag off Mods... so sorry....just need to make a point about this ECM run at 168hr...

where is the ridge and why is 92 not gaining lat? it obvious if a LLC sets up shop say above Jam then this run can go into the garbage.....blinders back on....

[Aric Dunn]

does not have the Euro.. but have fun..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 0&title=92

[KWT]

Rock, there is a upper ridge in place, a slight weakness does develop but the system is just too far south to really get any impacts from it, so it just skips it by like we've seen with countless other storms.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... TNA096.gif

96hrs out, notice all the oranges and the 588 colouring...there is your upper high...its not actually that strong but its enough to take a system that far south into Mexico quite deep down...

I actually think though the ECM maybe a touch too far south but we will see!