ATL: KARL - Models

[Weatherfreak000]

So difficult to say at this point where this may go...it almost seems crazy to even speculate...

MIMIC imagery is honestly not all too impressive...most vorticity is located slightly SW of the main convective blowup....which has been already dieing off today.


I need to see some more spin develop before I feel confident we even have development. 60% is classic professional work from the NHC.

[Steve]

>>MIMIC imagery is honestly not all too impressive...most vorticity is located slightly SW of the main convective blowup....which has been already dieing off today.

Agreed. It took off in the middle of the night, peaked, and is waning now. But it does have a fairly large envelope. And is often the case in the Caribbean in September, one of these pulses could have staying power. It wasn't last night's, but possibly today or tomorrow as the evolution continues. KWT said he was sufficiently convinced the energy was there, and there is reasonable model support outside of the GFS to think that it may crank.

Oh and GFDL coming in much weaker at 12z

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models Suite

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564
WHXX01 KWBC 111906
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1906 UTC SAT SEP 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100911 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100911  1800   100912  0600   100912  1800   100913  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  65.7W   15.3N  67.5W   15.9N  69.5W   16.5N  71.4W
BAMD    14.6N  65.7W   15.2N  68.0W   15.7N  70.3W   16.1N  72.6W
BAMM    14.6N  65.7W   15.2N  68.0W   15.8N  70.2W   16.3N  72.5W
LBAR    14.6N  65.7W   15.5N  68.1W   16.4N  70.5W   17.2N  72.7W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          53KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          53KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100913  1800   100914  1800   100915  1800   100916  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.1N  73.4W   18.2N  77.8W   19.1N  82.6W   19.9N  87.3W
BAMD    16.7N  74.6W   17.8N  79.0W   18.8N  84.5W   19.7N  89.6W
BAMM    16.9N  74.7W   18.0N  79.5W   19.0N  85.1W   19.7N  90.5W
LBAR    18.4N  74.8W   20.7N  78.3W   23.1N  81.3W   23.7N  82.3W
SHIP        67KTS          81KTS          92KTS         109KTS
DSHP        67KTS          81KTS          92KTS          46KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.6N LONCUR =  65.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  13.7N LONM12 =  62.6W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  13.2N LONM24 =  60.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[jinftl]

A bit more spread with the latest (18z) model runs...a few more tracks north of Jamaica

[gatorcane]

The lbar and clp5 that track north of Jamaica are not exactly good models. Just throw them out.

[Aquawind]

Not much to model as of yet..intensity and timing will be key if it's to miss the Yukatan imo..

[ericinmia]

The lbar and clp5 that track north of Jamaica are not exactly good models. Just throw them out.

After I first read the labels Lbar and Clipper I lol'ed and then saw the HWRF and CMC too! So I laughed again, because they are in good company.

[jinftl]

How accurate are model runs when they are initiated based on an estimated low level center that has...to my knowledge...not been identified yet?

[rockyman]

The tvcn points toward the Channel...that's pretty significant

[jeff]

A bit more spread with the latest (18z) model runs...a few more tracks north of Jamaica

The consensus is south of Jamaica besides the CMC and HWRF those models tracking north of Jamaica should not be used for forecasting guidance. The CMC and HWRF have some strange tracks and as WXMAN pointed out in the discussion thread the steering flow will be east to west over the W Caribbean Sea and Gulf..so it would be hard for the northern tracks to verify.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 120036
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC SUN SEP 12 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100912 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100912  0000   100912  1200   100913  0000   100913  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.2N  67.5W   16.1N  69.6W   17.1N  71.8W   17.8N  74.0W
BAMD    15.2N  67.5W   15.9N  69.7W   16.5N  71.8W   17.1N  73.8W
BAMM    15.2N  67.5W   16.0N  69.8W   16.6N  72.1W   17.2N  74.4W
LBAR    15.2N  67.5W   16.4N  70.2W   17.5N  72.8W   18.7N  75.1W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          52KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100914  0000   100915  0000   100916  0000   100917  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.4N  76.2W   19.7N  81.4W   20.9N  86.8W   22.1N  91.4W
BAMD    17.8N  75.7W   19.1N  80.2W   20.3N  85.3W   21.7N  89.7W
BAMM    17.9N  76.5W   19.0N  81.7W   20.2N  87.4W   21.5N  92.2W
LBAR    19.9N  77.1W   22.2N  80.1W   24.2N  82.1W   25.4N  81.9W
SHIP        65KTS          79KTS          92KTS         105KTS
DSHP        56KTS          65KTS          68KTS          52KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.2N LONCUR =  67.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  14.1N LONM12 =  64.1W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  61.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[BigB0882]

This morning our local met was showing a front moving through followed by a high parking over us for a few days. Makes it hard for me to think a tropical system will get anywhere near us for the next week or so. I can't see this going anywhere except W or WNW at best.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 0z nada

[gatorcane]

GFS 0z nada

I think the gfs dropped this system a couple of days ago. Remember it did the same thing for gaston though other models insisted on development. The gfs certainly seems to have the synoptics right in this part of the basin.

[ROCK]

really it all depends where a LLC sets up shop (if it does develop) for any of these runs to verify.....GFS withstanding....

oz NAM sees it.....

[Weatherfreak000]

really it all depends where a LLC sets up shop (if it does develop) for any of these runs to verify.....GFS withstanding....

oz NAM sees it.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

[Wx_Warrior]

0z CMC nada

[ROCK]

0z CMC nada

yep....0z NOGAPS nada.....weird the NHC kept it at 60% given the models are dropping like flys...

[Weatherfreak000]

0z CMC nada

yep....0z NOGAPS nada.....weird the NHC kept it at 60% given the models are dropping like flys...

Convection is on the rise...

[Wx_Warrior]