WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[KWT]

Thanks Rob!

The Ascat pass sort of confirms what I thought, I suspect its still not quite there but the MJO phase really favours some development in the WPAC and I tend to find the MJO is more important in the WPAC then it'd normally be in a La Nina.

The ECM really is quite impressive though it doesn't really develop much from this area till 96hrs time where it tracks it to the Philippines...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thoughts on 90W!
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2JvqO7mrLU[/youtube]

[Typhoon Hunter]

Rob! Can't thank you enough for taking the time to put those videos together, really great work, thanks so much!

JMA already upgraded 90W to an unwarned TD:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 12N 142E WEST SLOWLY.

And well done KWT!

[KWT]

This one may well give you a chance to chase TH, looks like there maybe multiple landfall threats in the next 2 weeks from this system.

[Typhoon Hunter]

This one may well give you a chance to chase TH, looks like there maybe multiple landfall threats in the next 2 weeks from this system.

Yeah could be time to dust off the volcanic ash and sulphuric acid residue from my camera and prepare myself for a typhoon. We'll see, early days yet, but the season out here has really lacked long track typhoons.

[supercane]

Latest ASCAT shows clear circulation WSW of Guam with one wind flagged to 25kt.

Latest Dvorak of T1.5 from KNES:

TXPN23 KNES 121601
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 12/1457Z
C. 12.0N
D. 141.6E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...PBO IN PART ON 1134Z ASCAT DATA SHOWING A CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH MAX WINDS OF 25KTS. 3/10 WHITE BAND RESULTS IN DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES
WHILE MET IS 1.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...EARLE
=
Forecast graphic for 90W=ITOP 30 from yesterday's discussion:

[KWT]

Looks like the forecast track has followed the ECM's last few runs, looks pretty reasonable...

Quite clearly got a circulation and it looks stronger then it did a few hours ago, could well become our next long tracker of the season...it has been a bit poor on that front recently...

[supercane]

BTW looks like recon will fly into this. From the ITOP site:
PGUA 12/0100
WEATHER RESEARCH FLIGHTS
ITOP10 GUAM OPERATIONS CENTER, MARRIOTT HOTEL, TUMON, GUAM
1100 AM ChST TUE 12 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: ITOP10 WPAC TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (WPTCPOD)
Valid: 12/1200Z (2200 ChST) TO 13/1159Z
WPTCPoD Number.....WP10-054a
I.- WPAC Requirements
Day 1 (AC#1) - ITOP30 SURVEILLANCE | FLT2 (AC#2) - NEGATIVE REQUIREMENTS
[A] 12/1900Z | [A]
[B] AF307 0130W ITOP | [B]
[C] 12/1800Z | [C]
[D] 13N 140E CTR | [D]
[E] 12/1900Z TO 13/0300Z | [E]
[F] 30,100 FT | [F]
[G] Science Crew: Heather Hornick, Matt Kucas, Kurt Nielsen; Fly surveillance with 300 nm N-S by 300 nm E-W 'square spiral' pattern at 30,100 FT into ITOP30 with EP of 15.5N 142.6E; deploy 32 sondes and Sippican AXBTs, one pair every 60 nm- skip outer corner points; EP at ~15.5N 142.7E; Initial heading 270 deg. | [G]
Succeeding Day OUTLOOK
Day 2 (AC#1)- ITOP30 SURVEILLANCE | FLT2 (AC#2)- NEGATIVE REQUIREMENTS
[A] 13/1930Z | [A]
[B] AF307 0230W ITOP | [B]
[C] 13/1800Z | [C]
[D] 14N 136.5E CTR | [D]
[E] 13/1930Z TO 14/0330Z | [E]
[F] 30,100 FT | [F]
[G] Science Crew: Robert Lee, Bob Creasey; Fly surveillance with 300 nm N-S by 300 nm E-W 'square spiral' pattern at 30,100 FT into ITOP30; deploy 36 sondes and Sparton AXBTs at 60 nm intervals with EP ~16.5N 139.2E | [G]
Long Term Outlook:

Science Crew: Heather Hornick, Matt Kucas, Kurt Nielsen; Fly outer square spiral at 30,100 ft with 300 nm E-W and N-S legs with EP1 in SE corner; descend to 10,000 ft and fly inner alpha pattern with 120 nm radial legs commencing at EP2 120 nm SE of CTR; T.O. at 14/1800Z

[supercane]

18Z JMA update:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 12N 142E WEST SLOWLY.



Latest KNES Dvorak T1.5.
TXPN23 KNES 122108
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 12/2030Z
C. 12.0N
D. 141.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF
1.5. WHITE BAND. MET = 1.0 AND PT = 1.5. FT BASED ON DT.
NIL
...KIBLER
=

Recon out flying; no vortex message.

[KWT]

Sure does look like the system is trying to wrap itself up looking at that IR image.

12z ECM once again suggests a pretty strong system developing...

[StormingB81]

SHould be interesting. NOGAPS has it going between Okinawa and Tawain and ECM has it going to PI.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Good morning, ( I slept in) Wow, that most recent ASCAT imagery is all the proof I would need to jump that storm up to a TD. I think JT will do it on the 03Z wrng. If not then the 9Z.

O and TH, its no problem. you chase typhoons I geek out at home. LOL

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 143.1E TO 14.4N 138.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 120830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 142.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
142.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 120452Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE INCREASED CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND CURVED INFLOW WRAPPING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AT 12/06Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC REPORTED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. A 120028Z
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH WEST/SOUTH-WESTERLIES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRONGER EAST/NORTH-EASTERLIES
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIVERGENT
REGION OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE
NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A POSITIVE EFFECT ON THE SYSTEMS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130900Z.//
NNNN

[Typhoon10]

I am up for chasing this one as well, if it doesnt come near HK.

[RobWESTPACWX]

If it goes towards the RYUKU I may go, I may able to catch a free flight down there, but don't think thats going to happen. (The storm go up that way that is)

[supercane]

If JTWC is upgrading, they're not tipping their hand in the latest Dvorak, although T2.0 would be enough.

TPPN11 PGTW 130022
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SW OF GUAM)
B. 12/2330Z
C. 12.1N
D. 140.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG-10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/2151Z 12.4N 141.0E AMSU
KIENZLE



AF recon flying system in square spiral pattern as part of ITOP, but winds do not make sense, with really low flight level winds and seemingly unreliable SFMR winds. Lowest pressure around 1000 mb.

Latest forecast data from ITOP:

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE BRIEF
Storm ID:    Name: Tropical Low
Issued at: 2237 UTC 12/10/2010
Data at: 0000 UTC 13 October 2010

TECHNICAL REMARKS
 

Latitude: 12.0N
Longitude: 140.6E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm (75 km)
Movement Towards: west (261 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (12 km/h)

Bearing 1: From Guam
   At  +0: 265 nm (490 km) west southwest
   At +12: 310 nm (570 km) west southwest
   At +24:     
   At +36: 440 nm (820 km) west
   At +48:     
   At +60: 640 nm (1190 km) west northwest
   At +72:     



Maximum 10 Minute Mean Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1004 hPa



FORECAST DATA *** Mean wind is 10 minute mean wind ***
 Date/Time     : Location     : Acc : Mean: Max : Pres :
 (UTC)         : degrees      : nm  : kts : kts : hPa  : 3
  +0 : 13/0000 : 12.0N 140.6E : 040 : 025 : 045 : 1004 :
  +6 : 13/0600 :              :     :     :     :      :
 +12 : 13/1200 : 12.2N 139.7E : 050 : 030 : 045 :      :
 +18 : 13/1800 :              :     :     :     :      :
 +24 : 14/0000 :              :     :     :     :      :
 +36 : 14/1200 : 13.5N 137.2E : 060 : 040 : 055 :      :
 +48 : 15/0000 :              :     :     :     :      :
 +60 : 15/1200 : 15.9N 134.0E : 070 : 050 : 070 :      :
 +72 : 16/0000 :              :     :     :     :      :
 +84 : 16/1200 : 17.2N 128.5E : 080 : 060 : 085 :      :
 +96 : 17/0000 :              :     :     :     :      :
+108 : 17/1200 : 16.6N 125.9E : 090 : 070 : 100 :      :
+120 : 18/0000 :              :     :     :     :      :
+132 : 18/1200 : 17.0N 123.0E : 100 : 055 : 080 :      :
+144 : 19/0000 :              :     :     :     :      :
*** 10 minute mean wind - increase by about 10% to get to 1 minute mean wind***

[StormingB81]

If it goes towards the RYUKU I may go, I may able to catch a free flight down there, but don't think thats going to happen. (The storm go up that way that is)

It would be interesting....some models have it going toawards PI som have it going toward Okinawa. We shall see in the coming days

[supercane]

90W off NRL site. JTWC upgrade imminent?

[StormingB81]

Says 15W on mine NRL has UPGRADED to Tropical Depression 15