WPAC: Ex-Tropical Storm LIONROCK (1006/07W)

[Typhoon10]

Wow, this came out of nowhere, will be interesting to watch over the next few days!

[StormingB81]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc1 ... atest.html


It is on the NRL site now as a depression...Typhoon10 This maybe something you have to keep an eye on.

[StormingB81]

Going to be named Florita

[Typhoon Hunter]

JTWC have it peaking at 50kts. They are notorious for being very conservative with their initial intensity forecasts so I wouldn't be surprised if this turns out stronger than that. Mindulle, Chanthu and Conson are perfect examples...

[KWT]

ECMWF has got a handle on this now. The have it drifting north slowly and the stalling out south of Hong Kong whereupon it intensifies into a major typhoon albeit a small one. Then it gets pulled west and buzz saws Guangdong coast. Let's see if subsequent models runs support this...

Yeah stays weak for the next 48hrs but then steadily strengthens this one into a pretty impressive system from the looks of things, I'd love to see a higher resolution version of the ECM to see what strength its actually at.

[supercane]

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270430Z AUG 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN31 PGTW 270900
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 117.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 117.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.2N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.7N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.8N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.7N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.5N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.4N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.5N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 117.4E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 270430Z
AUG 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 270430 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 117.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 117.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.3N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.7N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.1N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.8N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.4N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 117.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

[KWT]

That JWTC track is much different to the ECM which takes the system NW and then pretty much stalls out and slowly moves to the west.

[supercane]

JMA Typhoon model also heads NW with little strengthening:

FXPQ20 RJTD 270600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 270600UTC 15.3N 116.5E
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=006 16.0N 117.4E +001HPA +001KT
T=012 16.8N 117.2E 000HPA +001KT
T=018 17.5N 116.7E +001HPA +002KT
T=024 18.2N 116.5E 000HPA +002KT
T=030 18.7N 115.9E +001HPA -001KT
T=036 19.1N 115.1E 000HPA -001KT
T=042 19.3N 114.9E +001HPA -001KT
T=048 19.8N 115.3E 000HPA 000KT
T=054 19.9N 115.3E 000HPA -001KT
T=060 20.2N 115.3E -001HPA -001KT
T=066 20.7N 115.4E 000HPA -001KT
T=072 20.8N 115.4E -001HPA 000KT
T=078 20.9N 115.2E -001HPA -002KT
T=084 21.1N 114.8E -001HPA -002KT
T=090 21.1N 114.6E -001HPA -001KT
T=096 21.0N 114.8E -002HPA 000KT
T=102 21.0N 113.5E -001HPA -002KT
T=108 21.4N 113.8E -001HPA 000KT
T=114 21.4N 113.3E 000HPA +001KT
T=120 21.2N 112.4E -001HPA -001KT
T=126 21.2N 111.2E +001HPA -002KT
T=132 20.6N 109.8E +001HPA -003KT=

[supercane]

PAGASA calls this Florita:
WTPH RPMM 270600
TTT STORM WARNING 01

AT 27 0600 UTC TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 280600 ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD

[KWT]

Yeah looks reasonble that this doesn't strengthen too much in the short term, the ECM only really gets it going by 96hrs...

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
450 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER.
HOWEVER, RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY (270939Z 91 GHZ SSMIS
AND 271046Z 91H GHZ SSMIS) DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING RESULTING
IN AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH ENHANCED
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH ITS LOCATION BENEATH THE RIDGE
AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG AN
AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (>28 DEGREES CELCIUS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND IT
ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST REASONING.
B. TD 07W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH OF JAPAN.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND CONTINUE TO TURN
POLEWARD AS A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA
BREAKS DOWN THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE EARLY TAUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 07W IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND BEGIN TRACKING
SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. A LARGE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN
THE LATER TAUS INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO THE FORECAST TRACK. NOGAPS AND GFS INDICATE A SHARPER
RECCURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE ECMWF, UKMET, AND JGSM INDICATE
A MORE NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS
THE ECMWF, UKMET, AND JGSM MODEL FORECAST TRACKS, AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Last vis:


IR:


Microwave:

[Chacor]

Nice ball of convection but not much more right now.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 15.5N 116.8E POOR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 17.6N 115.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



Map made in UW-CIMSS with IR sat, obs, shear, steering flow, dynamic model track overlays (too many things, I know). Note spread in models JTWC commented on in their prognostic reasoning, relatively low shear.

[Chacor]

Can't really tell anything from that image, supercane, way too cluttered, sorry.

[KWT]

Yeah decent ball of convection, sometimes that is a sign of a developing/strengthening system and in this case with fairly decent conditions aloft I do think this one will get going eventually.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 15.8N 116.9E POOR
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 281500UTC 17.9N 116.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 16.4N 117.4E POOR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 18.6N 116.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[supercane]

Scarce deep convection around the center: