TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (06S)

[CrazyC83]

It might even be stronger than that since it is busting Dvorak constraints...

[HURAKAN]

15/1430 UTC 14.8S 124.7E T6.0/6.0 LAURENCE -- Southeast Indian

wow, 115 knots

[HURAKAN]

Very small eye

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 DEC 2009 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 15:11:16 S Lon : 124:36:43 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 932.5mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.7 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -27.0C Cloud Region Temp : -81.1C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 37
Issued at 2:50 am WST on Wednesday, 16 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent areas to the south.

At 2:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 4 was estimated to be
55 kilometres north of Kuri Bay and
155 kilometres northeast of Cockatoo Island and
moving southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but intense tropical cyclone having
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 230 kilometres per hour close to the
cyclone centre. As Laurence tracks to the southwest near the Kimberley coast
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may develop at Kuri Bay during Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour should extend further southwest
along the coast, reaching Cockatoo and Koolan Islands during Wednesday and
should the centre pass close by VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible during the
afternoon and evening. GALES may extend to Derby and Beagle Bay overnight
Wednesday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north Kimberley region, extending
into the western Kimberley during Wednesday. Daily rainfall totals in excess of
100mm are possible near the coast with totals decreasing further inland.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Kuri Bay need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People at or near Mitchell Plateau should be taking action.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Koolan Island and Cockatoo
Island should start taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in Kalumburu are advised that wind danger has passed but you
need to take care to avoid any danger caused by the heavy rain.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.0 degrees South 124.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 954 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Wednesday 16 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[Cookie]

this thing went mad, I hope thier ready down their.

[P.K.]

90kt cat 4.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1916 UTC 15/12/2009
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 124.5E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [234 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 954 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0600: 16.0S 123.9E: 045 [085]: 090 [165]: 955
+24: 16/1800: 16.6S 123.9E: 080 [150]: 060 [110]: 979
+36: 17/0600: 17.1S 123.8E: 095 [175]: 045 [085]: 989
+48: 17/1800: 17.6S 123.5E: 110 [205]: 035 [065]: 995
+60: 18/0600: 18.0S 122.6E: 180 [335]: 030 [055]: 998
+72: 18/1800: 18.1S 122.0E: 235 [435]: 030 [055]: 999
REMARKS:
Laurence is a small but intense system, as demonstrated by the observations at
Troughton Island on Tuesday morning, where a peak gust of 185 km/h was measured
as the system went directly over the island. An eye is evident on IR and
microwave imagery . Recent EIR images produced a DT of 5.5-6.0. While DT may
suggest 6.0 based on surround CMG [-0.5 eye adjustment CDG/B], the FT is set at
5.5 in agreement with the PAT.

Laurence has intensified under favourable upper level outflow and low shear but
despite being in close proximity to land. Intensity is maintained at 90 knot
mean winds for next 12-18 hours as it tracks parallel to the coast, but
intensity is heavily dependent upon the influence of land. Most models suggest
landfall is the most likely scenario by about +18-24 hours and weakening is then
likely as a more southerly track ensues.

A more westerly track is possible beyond +48 hours and potentially the system
may move offshore and redevelop in the longer term.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 DEC 2009 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 15:19:10 S Lon : 124:21:58 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 921.9mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.4 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -58.0C Cloud Region Temp : -80.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

WTXS33 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.7S 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.6S 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.4S 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.2S 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.5S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 124.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. TC LAURENCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE, LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS AS IT HAS STAYED OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH ROBUST
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PINHOLE EYE WHILE A 151730Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE
MIDGET SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
DEPICT EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH DEVELOPED POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, LAURENCE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING TOWARD 10-
DEGREES SOUTH. HOWEVER, BY TAU 36 THE TROUGH WILL START TO FLATTEN
OUT AND THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL START TO FILL. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE
STEERING RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, ENABLING
THE TC TO TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48. AS FOR
INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 12, AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO TURN MORE
POLEWARD, LAURENCE WILL START TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND
AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE
RAPIDLY AND BY TAU 72 LAURENCE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE (AFTER TRACKING OVER LAND FOR MORE THAN
36 HOURS). THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD, OVER LAND, THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THREE
DAYS, HOWEVER, THE AIDS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SOME OF THE MODELS
TRY TO TRACK LAURENCE BACK OVER WATER. THAT SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM
LIKELY AS A TRACK OVER LAND FOR A LONG DURATION OF TIME WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST CONTINUES
TO REFLECT A DISSIPATION PHILOSPHY BY TAU 72 AND IS JUST WEST OF THE
JTWC CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

Looks close to landfall now.

[HURAKAN]

The eye is just offshore

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 38
Issued at 5:55 am WST on Wednesday, 16 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay and adjacent inland parts.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent areas to the south.

At 5:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 4 was estimated to be
40 kilometres northwest of Kuri Bay and
125 kilometres northeast of Cockatoo Island and
moving southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but intense tropical cyclone having
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 260 kilometres per hour close to the
cyclone centre. As Laurence tracks to the southwest near the Kimberley coast
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may be experienced at Kuri Bay during Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour should extend further southwest
along the coast, reaching Cockatoo and Koolan Islands during Wednesday and
should the centre pass close by VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible during the
afternoon and evening. GALES may extend to Derby and Beagle Bay overnight
Wednesday or on Thursday morning.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north Kimberley region, extending
into the western Kimberley during Wednesday and Thursday. Daily rainfall totals
in excess of 100mm are possible near the coast with totals decreasing further
inland.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Kuri Bay need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Koolan
Island and Cockatoo Island should be taking action.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Cape Leveque, One Arm Point,
Djarindjin, Lombadina and Derby should start taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in Kalumburu are advised that the wind danger has passed but
you need to take care to avoid any danger caused by the heavy rain.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.2 degrees South 124.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 260 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 944 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Wednesday 16 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

15/2030 UTC 15.2S 124.4E T6.5/6.5 LAURENCE -- Southeast Indian

127 knots

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 DEC 2009 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 15:26:12 S Lon : 124:16:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 916.7mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.7 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.8C Cloud Region Temp : -78.3C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HurricaneBill]

This is getting close to Category 5 (Australian scale).

Isn't there a link between El Nino and intense TCs making landfall on western Australia?

[HURAKAN]

The eye is so small that's basically invisible in the microwave

[RattleMan]

Cat 5 on their scale:

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Kuri Bay and Cockatoo Island are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39
Issued at 8:45 am WST on Wednesday, 16 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay and adjacent inland parts.

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga and extending
inland towards Fitzroy Crossing.

At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 5 was estimated to be
35 kilometres west northwest of Kuri Bay and
220 kilometres north northeast of Derby and
moving southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but very intense tropical cyclone
having VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 285 kilometres per hour close to the
cyclone centre. VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts are possible on the coast near Kuri
Bay during today.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour will extend further southwest along
the coast, reaching Cockatoo and Koolan Islands during the day. Should the
centre pass close by VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible during the afternoon
and evening. GALES, and possibly DESTRUCTIVE winds may extend to Derby and
Beagle Bay on Thursday morning.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north Kimberley region, extending
into the western Kimberley later today and during Thursday. Daily rainfall
totals in excess of 100mm are possible near the coast with totals decreasing
further inland.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Kuri Bay need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People at or near the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Koolan
Island and Cockatoo Island should be taking action.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Cape Leveque, One Arm Point,
Djarindjin, Lombadina and Derby should start taking precautions.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.4 degrees South 124.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 933 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Wednesday 16 December.Cyclone
advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Chacor]

Gusts are to 155 kts

AXAU01 APRF 160052
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0051 UTC 16/12/2009
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 124.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h]
Central Pressure: 933 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: D6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1200: 16.2S 123.7E: 045 [085]: 105 [195]: 938
+24: 17/0000: 16.7S 123.7E: 080 [150]: 075 [140]: 967
+36: 17/1200: 17.2S 123.5E: 095 [175]: 060 [110]: 979
+48: 18/0000: 17.7S 122.9E: 110 [205]: 040 [075]: 993
+60: 18/1200: 17.9S 122.1E: 180 [335]: 040 [075]: 993
+72: 19/0000: 18.0S 121.3E: 230 [425]: 050 [095]: 985
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small and very intense system. A well
defined eye has been evident on microwave and IR imagery. EIR analysis was
consistently giving a DT of 6.5 and FT is assigned on this basis with no
constraints broken following reanalysis of previous imagery. The latest image
shows some filling of the eye with the warmest eye temp grey shade being white,
which will imply a weakening trend if it continues.

It has remained sufficiently off the coast and is in a very favourable low shear
environment. Guidance indicates the shear environment will remain generally
favourable over the next 48-72 hours despite some fluctuation. Only interaction
with land is likely to weaken the system, hence the forecast intensity is
dependent on the track. The track is likely to become more southerly during
today under the influence of a highly meridional mid level pattern with a
stationary trough to the west and an anticyclone to the east.

A more westerly track is possible during Friday and in the longer term the
system may move offshore and redevelop.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest