#489 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 02, 2009 3:50 pm
JTWC 21:00Z Warning=40 kts
WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 21.5N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 134.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.6N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.7N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 134.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED 90 NM EAST OF THE LLCC. IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS AN
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT INDICATING
COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. SHIP
OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT CONFIRM COOLER TEMPERATURES
(25C) AND DRY AIR ADVECTION (DEWPOINT 20C). THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES A NORTHWARD
TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER, RECENT IMAGERY AS
WELL AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORT A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK. BASED ON THE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING LLCC AND INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER AIR, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z
AND 031500Z.//
NNNN
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