WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (0911/12W)

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 025
WTPQ50 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0911 KROVANH (0911)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 24.4N 148.3E POOR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 26.6N 145.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 301800UTC 28.9N 141.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 311800UTC 32.1N 138.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 011800UTC 36.8N 139.5E 350NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
120HF 021800UTC 40.9N 144.3E 450NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 24.8N 148.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 148.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 27.0N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 28.9N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 30.9N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 32.6N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 35.6N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 41.2N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 44.8N 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 147.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM WITH A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC (TUTT) CELL TO THE WEST PROVIDING POLEWARD VENTILATION
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
TS 12W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY AND ON A 281612Z AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. TS
KROVANH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS CENTRAL JAPAN, MAKE LANDFALL
THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY TAU 72. THE RECURVATURE WILL BE DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
MONGOLIA THAT WILL DESCEND INTO JAPAN. MOST AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN FAVOR OF THIS FORECAST WITH GFS AND JGSM MOST LEFT OF
THE TRACK ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

28/2030 UTC 25.1N 148.5E T3.5/3.5 KROVANH -- West Pacific

[StormingB81]

WOW! What happend? I went ot sleep with teh projected path and it was supposed to be about 300 miles north of us now its way up north. Crazy! It is like okinawa has a block for typhoons! Cmon!

[Cookie]

most people in you're place mate would be happy

[StormingB81]

Yes but I want a typhoon!

[Category 5]

Yes but I want a typhoon!

That may be the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen posted on this website.......... and I've seen some nonsense.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 26.0N 147.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 147.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 28.1N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 30.0N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 31.9N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 33.9N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 37.0N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 41.5N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 45.7N 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 147.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.
//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

See I want to be that guy on the weather channel grabbing onto a pole being blown around in the middle of a hurricane. That would be awesome. Yes I am crazy!

[StormingB81]

Looking at this radar it looks like it has taken a sharp turn west. I dont even think the storm knows where it wants to go. I think all of japan should be watching this storm!

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0911 KROVANH (0911)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 26.7N 147.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300300UTC 30.6N 143.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 310000UTC 33.3N 140.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 010000UTC 38.8N 142.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 06
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 27.4N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 30.0N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 32.5N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 35.0N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 37.8N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 43.5N 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 45.1N 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 146.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROVANH) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM SOUTHEAST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE
RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.

[HURAKAN]

Very large eye developing

[P.K.]

Just upgraded.

WTPQ20 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0911 KROVANH (0911) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 29.9N 144.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 32.7N 140.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 311800UTC 38.4N 142.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 011800UTC 44.3N 150.1E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 29.9N 144.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9N 144.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 31.9N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 34.0N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 36.9N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 40.5N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 47.0N 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 30.4N 144.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 12W HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AND HAS
MOVED ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED AS THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL FORMERLY TO ITS WEST THAT WAS PROVIDING THE
MECHANISM, HAS NOW LAGGED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER
A RIDGE AXIS IN A ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG ITS TRACK ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON
DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE. TS KROVANH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWEST-
WARD UP TO TAU 24 BEFORE IT RECURVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGINS ITS
RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY TO
MINIMUM TYPHOON STRENGTH THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER RECURVATURE.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONSENSUS
JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THIS TRACK FORECAST. GFS HAS EMERGED AS THE
EXTREME LEFT OUTLIER. WORTH MENTIONING IS THAT JGSM AND ECMWF ARE
JUST LEFT OF THIS FORECAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, ALL MODELS DO
NOT BRING THE SYSTEM TO A LANDFALL IN CENTRAL JAPAN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Not looking as good as it did before

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 075
WTPQ20 RJTD 292100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0911 KROVANH (0911)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 30.2N 143.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 302100UTC 33.5N 140.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 311800UTC 38.4N 142.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 011800UTC 44.3N 150.1E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0911 KROVANH (0911)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 31.1N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 310600UTC 35.2N 140.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 010600UTC 42.9N 146.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 020600UTC 45.2N 156.2E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Chacor]

Right now both JMA and JTWC agree it will pass just south of Tokyo in 24 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Not looking very good