EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO (12E)

[clfenwi]

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invest_ep932009.invest
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200908222126
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 93, 2009, DB, O, 2009082218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP932009
EP, 93, 2009082118, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1021W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2009082200, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1032W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2009082206, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1044W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2009082212, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1055W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2009082218, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1065W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

18Z TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE INCREASED
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



22Z TWD:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 108W FROM 08N TO 20N MOVING W AT 17 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY
TODAY SHOWED AN IMPROVED AREA OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH EVIDENCE OF A CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE AXIS
NEAR 14N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO 15N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM
W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N TO 20N. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

190
WHXX01 KMIA 222128
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2128 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932009) 20090822 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090822 1800 090823 0600 090823 1800 090824 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 106.5W 14.2N 108.7W 15.3N 110.6W 16.3N 112.5W
BAMD 13.0N 106.5W 13.3N 108.7W 13.7N 111.0W 14.2N 113.2W
BAMM 13.0N 106.5W 13.8N 108.7W 14.7N 110.9W 15.6N 112.9W
LBAR 13.0N 106.5W 13.6N 108.7W 14.1N 111.2W 14.5N 114.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090824 1800 090825 1800 090826 1800 090827 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 114.7W 19.6N 119.7W 22.3N 125.6W 25.0N 131.5W
BAMD 14.8N 115.1W 16.7N 119.0W 20.0N 123.1W 24.1N 126.8W
BAMM 16.5N 115.0W 18.8N 119.7W 22.1N 125.2W 26.1N 129.9W
LBAR 14.8N 116.9W 16.7N 123.1W 18.1N 128.5W 21.4N 130.6W
SHIP 51KTS 57KTS 51KTS 37KTS
DSHP 51KTS 57KTS 51KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 106.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 104.4W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 102.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[clfenwi]

While a model or two may be picking up on the disturbance to the west rather than this one, there is relative unanimity that we will see Ignacio in the next three or four days.

[brunota2003]

Hmm...interesting little disturbance. It needs to get a LLC, but judging by the storms...if they persist, it should develop one within the next few days.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL STORM HILDA...LOCATED ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO HAWAII.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[clfenwi]

23/0000 UTC 13.6N 107.4W TOO WEAK 93E -- East Pacific

Young and immature.

[HURAKAN]

713
ABPZ20 KNHC 230527
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HILDA...LOCATED ABOUT 1155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[clfenwi]

First light:



Still very much one for the patient as it's yet to merit numbers:

23/1200 UTC 12.8N 112.6W TOO WEAK 93E -- East Pacific

[HURAKAN]

Still has a lot of work to do

[HURAKAN]

060
ABPZ20 KNHC 231751
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL STORM HILDA HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AND IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1070 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE NEXT
ADVISORY ON HILDA WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[clfenwi]

22Z TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED NEAR 16N112W WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008
MB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE INDICATED
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW MAINLY IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM
14N TO 19N BETWEEN 112W AND 119W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN
THIS AREA HAS WEAKENED. THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEVERAL OF THE NWP MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
AS WELL.

[clfenwi]

Still deemed too weak to classify by SAB.



24/0000 UTC 16.3N 113.5W TOO WEAK 93E -- East Pacific

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 23 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932009 08/24/09 00 UTC *

SHEAR (KT) 12 7 6 5 5 2 6 2 11 6 14 17 20
SHEAR DIR 39 48 52 70 117 91 133 101 164 201 207 245 246
SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.2 26.8 25.7 24.2 22.9 22.1 21.7 21.5 21.7

Shear looks favorable in the next 12 hours and on. In a few days shear will increase.

[clfenwi]

Definitely not lacking strong convection this evening (though it is to the west of the "center"):



04Z TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 16N112W WITH AN
ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE INDICATED A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WEST OF THE LOW IN THE AREA
FROM 15N TO 19N FROM 112W TO 119W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN
THIS AREA HAS WEAKENED. THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEVERAL OF THE NWP MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS
WELL.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 23 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN22 PHNC 241030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 114.6W TO 17.8N 121.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 115.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 113.7W IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.2W, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A BROAD
CIRCULATION NEAR 16N 117W. A 240526Z 89 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 240845Z INFRARED IMAGE SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST, SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LLCC AND THESE ARE PROVIDING BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 29C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOUR IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251030Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

24/1200 UTC 16.5N 116.2W T1.5/1.5 93E -- East Pacific

[HURAKAN]

Looking quite good. TD 12-E could be around the corner

[HURAKAN]

083
ABPZ20 KNHC 241758
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH