EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908081714
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2009, DB, O, 2009080818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902009
EP, 90, 2009080818, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1174W, 25, 0, DB
EP, 90, 2009080800, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1146W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2009080806, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1156W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2009080812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1166W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2009080818, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1174W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, I see it. Nice little blob South of Hawai'i as well.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 8 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FELICIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1030 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 800
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 081733
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 8 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

HURRICANE FELICIA HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN AND IS
LOCATED ABOUT 930 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON
FELICIA WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

First Model Plots

It doesnt look too promising if the models are right.


WHXX01 KMIA 081802
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1802 UTC SAT AUG 8 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902009) 20090808 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090808 1800 090809 0600 090809 1800 090810 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 117.5W 14.5N 119.9W 15.0N 122.3W 15.4N 124.7W
BAMD 13.8N 117.5W 14.2N 119.0W 14.6N 120.4W 15.0N 121.6W
BAMM 13.8N 117.5W 14.3N 119.4W 14.7N 121.1W 15.2N 122.8W
LBAR 13.8N 117.5W 14.4N 119.3W 15.1N 121.1W 15.8N 123.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090810 1800 090811 1800 090812 1800 090813 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 127.3W 17.5N 132.4W 18.8N 136.8W 19.8N 140.8W
BAMD 15.6N 123.0W 17.0N 126.1W 18.0N 129.8W 19.5N 134.0W
BAMM 15.9N 124.7W 17.8N 128.5W 19.4N 132.2W 21.4N 135.6W
LBAR 16.7N 125.3W 18.9N 129.8W 23.0N 133.5W 29.1N 133.7W
SHIP 33KTS 31KTS 27KTS 15KTS
DSHP 33KTS 31KTS 27KTS 15KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 117.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 115.6W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 113.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

It needs a lot more convection

[cycloneye]

897
ABPZ20 KNHC 082340
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 8 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
REMAINS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Remains weak

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 8 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 825 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
REMAINS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

09/1200 UTC 14.7N 119.6W T1.5/1.5 90E -- East Pacific

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 9 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST
OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

Looking much better now.

[HURAKAN]

Luis stole my line!

[HURAKAN]

Loop. Increasing organization

[KWT]

Sure does look like a developing system there, can see the convection really starting to wrap round.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 9 2009

CORRECTED TO ADD PROBABILITY IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a tropical depression or weak tropical storm

[KWT]

Yep, I'd guess thats a 30kt depression at the moment, so the EPAC continues its more active streak as expected in El Nino years.

[RL3AO]

EP, 90, 2009080918, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1200W, 30, 1007, TD

TD Nine-E at 21z.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 091845
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1845 UTC SUN AUG 9 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

[b]TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (EP092009) 20090809 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090809 1800 090810 0600 090810 1800 090811 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 120.0W 14.4N 122.1W 14.8N 124.4W 15.3N 126.8W
BAMD 14.0N 120.0W 14.2N 121.3W 14.5N 122.6W 14.8N 124.1W
BAMM 14.0N 120.0W 14.3N 121.5W 14.7N 123.3W 15.1N 125.1W
LBAR 14.0N 120.0W 14.3N 121.4W 14.9N 123.2W 15.8N 125.4W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 41KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 41KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090811 1800 090812 1800 090813 1800 090814 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 129.2W 17.0N 133.8W 17.9N 138.4W 18.9N 143.7W
BAMD 15.2N 125.6W 15.8N 129.1W 16.0N 133.2W 16.5N 137.7W
BAMM 15.8N 127.0W 16.8N 130.7W 17.4N 134.8W 18.3N 139.2W
LBAR 16.6N 127.9W 19.3N 132.8W 22.6N 137.1W 27.5N 139.0W
SHIP 45KTS 48KTS 46KTS 42KTS
DSHP 45KTS 48KTS 46KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 120.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 118.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 117.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
[/b]