UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 FEB 2009 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 18:40:06 S Lon : 55:19:59 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 982.5mb/ 59.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.7 4.0 5.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km
Center Temp : -28.8C Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
SIO: GAEL - Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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939
WTIO30 FMEE 051218
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/8/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/05 AT 1200 UTC :
18.3S / 56.0E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 350 SE: 320 SO: 200 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/06 00 UTC: 18.7S/54.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/02/06 12 UTC: 19.1S/52.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/02/07 00 UTC: 19.7S/51.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 20.8S/50.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/08 00 UTC: 21.9S/50.9E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 23.0S/51.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
THE SYSTEM IS CHANGING FROM A CURVED BAND PATTERN INTO A BANDED EYE
PATTERN.
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVOURABLE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND
AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BUILT.
GAEL IS STILL TRACKING ALONG THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
PRESENT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON
TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL IMPROVE BEYOND 24 HOURS (IMPROVING
TRADES INFLOW, HIGH SST, SECOND OUTFLOW POLARWARD).
WTIO30 FMEE 051218
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/8/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/05 AT 1200 UTC :
18.3S / 56.0E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 350 SE: 320 SO: 200 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/06 00 UTC: 18.7S/54.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/02/06 12 UTC: 19.1S/52.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/02/07 00 UTC: 19.7S/51.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 20.8S/50.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/08 00 UTC: 21.9S/50.9E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 23.0S/51.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
THE SYSTEM IS CHANGING FROM A CURVED BAND PATTERN INTO A BANDED EYE
PATTERN.
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVOURABLE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND
AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BUILT.
GAEL IS STILL TRACKING ALONG THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
PRESENT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON
TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL IMPROVE BEYOND 24 HOURS (IMPROVING
TRADES INFLOW, HIGH SST, SECOND OUTFLOW POLARWARD).
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Crostorm
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- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: SIO: GAEL - Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 FEB 2009 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 18:27:55 S Lon : 55:28:51 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 975.7mb/ 67.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 3.5 3.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb
Center Temp : -46.4C Cloud Region Temp : -62.5C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 FEB 2009 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 18:27:55 S Lon : 55:28:51 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 975.7mb/ 67.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 3.5 3.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb
Center Temp : -46.4C Cloud Region Temp : -62.5C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
0 likes
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
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- Contact:
Re: SIO: GAEL - Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
412
WTIO30 FMEE 051842
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/05 AT 1800 UTC :
18.3S / 55.1E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 230 NO: 230
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/06 06 UTC: 18.6S/53.3E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/02/06 18 UTC: 19.3S/52.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/02/07 06 UTC: 20.5S/51.1E, MAX WIND=095KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/02/07 18 UTC: 21.4S/51.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/08 06 UTC: 22.4S/51.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2009/02/08 18 UTC: 24.1S/51.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-
GAEL HAS INTENSIFIED AND SHOWS AN EYE PATTERN ON THE LAST IMAGES.
ENVIRONMENTS HAS BECOME FAVOURABLE AS THE WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE
PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD.
GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT
IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, AND THEN
SOUTHWARDS.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON IMPROVING (IMPROVING TRADES
INFLOW, HIGH SST, SECOND OUTFLOW POLEWARD).
WTIO30 FMEE 051842
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/05 AT 1800 UTC :
18.3S / 55.1E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 230 NO: 230
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/06 06 UTC: 18.6S/53.3E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/02/06 18 UTC: 19.3S/52.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/02/07 06 UTC: 20.5S/51.1E, MAX WIND=095KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/02/07 18 UTC: 21.4S/51.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/08 06 UTC: 22.4S/51.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2009/02/08 18 UTC: 24.1S/51.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-
GAEL HAS INTENSIFIED AND SHOWS AN EYE PATTERN ON THE LAST IMAGES.
ENVIRONMENTS HAS BECOME FAVOURABLE AS THE WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE
PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD.
GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT
IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, AND THEN
SOUTHWARDS.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON IMPROVING (IMPROVING TRADES
INFLOW, HIGH SST, SECOND OUTFLOW POLEWARD).
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
WTXS31 PGTW 052100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 55.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.6S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.0S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.9S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.9S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 54.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WITH A BANDING EYE AND OVERALL SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 051548Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 12-
HOUR MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO RE-
CURVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER
MADGASCAR. THIS WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND PROVIDE AN ENHANCED
NORTHWESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING INFLUENCE AS WELL AS AN
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE RE-
CURVATURE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS
WHICH INDICATE A DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED BY TAU 24. BASED ON A
NUMBER OF FACTORS INCLUDING THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE, CHIPS AND STIPS
GUIDANCE, AND EXPECTED IMPROVEMENTS IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW, TC 13S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 20-25 KNOT PER DAY RATE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z AND 062100Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
412
WTIO30 FMEE 051842
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/05 AT 1800 UTC :
18.3S / 55.1E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 230 NO: 230
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/06 06 UTC: 18.6S/53.3E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/02/06 18 UTC: 19.3S/52.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/02/07 06 UTC: 20.5S/51.1E, MAX WIND=095KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/02/07 18 UTC: 21.4S/51.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/08 06 UTC: 22.4S/51.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2009/02/08 18 UTC: 24.1S/51.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-
GAEL HAS INTENSIFIED AND SHOWS AN EYE PATTERN ON THE LAST IMAGES.
ENVIRONMENTS HAS BECOME FAVOURABLE AS THE WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE
PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD.
GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT
IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, AND THEN
SOUTHWARDS.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON IMPROVING (IMPROVING TRADES
INFLOW, HIGH SST, SECOND OUTFLOW POLEWARD).
WTIO30 FMEE 051842
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/05 AT 1800 UTC :
18.3S / 55.1E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 230 NO: 230
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/06 06 UTC: 18.6S/53.3E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/02/06 18 UTC: 19.3S/52.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/02/07 06 UTC: 20.5S/51.1E, MAX WIND=095KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/02/07 18 UTC: 21.4S/51.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/08 06 UTC: 22.4S/51.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2009/02/08 18 UTC: 24.1S/51.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-
GAEL HAS INTENSIFIED AND SHOWS AN EYE PATTERN ON THE LAST IMAGES.
ENVIRONMENTS HAS BECOME FAVOURABLE AS THE WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE
PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD.
GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT
IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, AND THEN
SOUTHWARDS.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON IMPROVING (IMPROVING TRADES
INFLOW, HIGH SST, SECOND OUTFLOW POLEWARD).
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Crostorm
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Re: SIO: GAEL - Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
387
WTIO30 FMEE 060042
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/06 AT 0000 UTC :
18.5S / 54.3E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/06 12 UTC: 19.0S/52.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/02/07 00 UTC: 20.2S/51.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 21.0S/51.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2009/02/08 00 UTC: 22.1S/51.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 23.9S/52.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2009/02/09 00 UTC: 25.8S/53.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5+
GAEL SHOWS AN EYE PATTERN. THE EYE IS BETTER DEFINED ON THE LAST IMAGERY
(SINCE 23100Z), COMPARED TO BEFORE WHEN THE SYSTEM SHOWED A RAGGED EYE.
ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME FAVOURABLE AS THE WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED AND DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF AN EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS LIMITED.
GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT
IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL RIDGE (DUE TO A MID LAT TROUGH) SHOULD RECURVE THE TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARDS,
AND THEN SOUTHWARDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON IMPROVING: BETTER TRADES INFLOW,
HIGH SST, PRESENCE OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE TROUGH.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS.
WTIO30 FMEE 060042
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/06 AT 0000 UTC :
18.5S / 54.3E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/06 12 UTC: 19.0S/52.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/02/07 00 UTC: 20.2S/51.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 21.0S/51.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2009/02/08 00 UTC: 22.1S/51.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 23.9S/52.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2009/02/09 00 UTC: 25.8S/53.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5+
GAEL SHOWS AN EYE PATTERN. THE EYE IS BETTER DEFINED ON THE LAST IMAGERY
(SINCE 23100Z), COMPARED TO BEFORE WHEN THE SYSTEM SHOWED A RAGGED EYE.
ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME FAVOURABLE AS THE WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED AND DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF AN EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS LIMITED.
GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT
IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL RIDGE (DUE TO A MID LAT TROUGH) SHOULD RECURVE THE TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARDS,
AND THEN SOUTHWARDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON IMPROVING: BETTER TRADES INFLOW,
HIGH SST, PRESENCE OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE TROUGH.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS.
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Crostorm
- Category 5
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- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
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- Contact:
Re: SIO: GAEL - Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 FEB 2009 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 18:37:00 S Lon : 54:09:09 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 975.7mb/ 67.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.0 6.2 6.2
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km
Center Temp : -8.7C Cloud Region Temp : -69.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: SIO: GAEL - Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 FEB 2009 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 18:21:08 S Lon : 53:02:30 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 958.2mb/ 87.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.5 3.5 3.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.8mb
Center Temp : -74.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 FEB 2009 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 18:21:08 S Lon : 53:02:30 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 958.2mb/ 87.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.5 3.5 3.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.8mb
Center Temp : -74.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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