ATL : INVEST 95L

[BigA]

Let's get back on topic. I know that the lack of action is frustrating; I'd prefer to be tracking an intresting tropical storm/hurricane rather than watching feeble tropical waves and lows get ripped apart by wind shear. Nevertheless, the frustration is not a legitimate reason to take it out on the professional meteorologists. They're being intellectually honest when they say what they think (and good science tells them) what is going to happen, rather than telling us what we wish would happen.

As for 95L, from what I can tell, its only legitimate shot is to stay disorganized at a low enough latitude that it can avoid the screaming shear for the next few days, until it moves more than halfway to the Caribbean, where conditions look like they will be more favorable in 4 days (with the necessary caveat that shear forecasts are always suspect). As the invest is gaining latitude as we type, I see this scenario as unlikely.

Therefore, as much as it disappoints me, I see Wxman's prediction of no significant development to be a logical one.

Take heart, however, as the CMC, GFS, and NOGAPS shear maps all forecast the shear wall of death in the Atlantic to start to break down late this week. It may not help this system, but there will be more waves behind this one, and the western Atlantic doesn't shut down until a couple of weeks later.

[floridasun78]

The NHC has a very strict protocol. If they request an investigation, it's because the area has the potential to develop THAT MY THING ABOUT ISSUE READ THIS WX

[funster]

Love that BAMD model run that loops

[WeatherLovingDoc]

You bunch of anarchists! How can you think yourself when we have the NHC authority. Never, never doubt their analysis.

Good to see you're alive and kicking, expat. How right you are to at least think! WLD

[StormClouds63]

Noticed MJO currently unfavorable:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... thly_1.gif

Any idea regarding its movement during the next couple of weeks?
Is favorable MJO any more (or less) significant during an El Nino season?

[floridasun78]

So by requesting an investigation on an area, they are able to incorporate numerous other tools to forecast this invest area.

[Evil Jeremy]

The BAMD pulls a Jeanne lol

['CaneFreak]

Noticed MJO currently unfavorable:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... thly_1.gif

Any idea regarding its movement during the next couple of weeks?
Is favorable MJO any more (or less) significant during an El Nino season?

El nino and mjo arent related at all

[cycloneye]

There will be a weakness in the Central Atlantic for 95L to track as a fish.

[BigA]

The NHC has a very strict protocol. If they request an investigation, it's because the area has the potential to develop THAT MY THING ABOUT ISSUE READ THIS WX

Fair enough, and yes, there can be legitimate disagreements between good scientists about the interpretation of data. Goodness knows weather is a difficult science. I don't want to put words in anyone's mouth, but I think that if one were to ask the NHC forecasters at this time about 95L's future, the would say that it could develop in the next two days, but its prospects after that are bleak. This is largely in agreement with what Wxman is arguing.

[HURAKAN]

Lets see what D-MAX brings.

[ConvergenceZone]

bored with the tropics and wanting winter storms?

Winter storms are merely a nuisance. Over hyped beyond belief. So what they close down the roads. Big deal! Where I grew up a foot of snow was just another day and nothing to be excited about

Yea I know...I want softball sized hail and SEVERE thunderstorms!! That's what I'm talking about!!!!! To heck with this wimpy crap.

[Frank2]

Both 95L and the wave behind it look to be fishies...

[jasons2k]

Let's stay on topic please......

[BensonTCwatcher]

All I can say about the BAM deep is.


BOINNGGGG

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Lets not deviate from the topic 95L and not talk about other members.

[Gustywind]

Ok,ok,ok,lets have the discussioins returned to 95L please.,or I will lock it (jk on that last part)

Yeah tkanks!!! Luis "SUPERMAN" is there to put some brightness

[Gustywind]

CALM DOWN, PEACE AND LOVE MY FRIENDS!








Hope all is ok right now...

[terrapintransit]

Look.....They just caught 95L