WPAC: TS MORAKOT (0908/09W/PAGASA: KIKO)

[senorpepr]

Almost looks like a transitioning storm that was subtropical yesterday...I would say 50 kt based on old QuikSCAT data, but that it was an STS yesterday. Given its huge size, 980mb may be its current pressure...

Not really subtropical in nature. The circulation was a monsoonal gyre (a different type of ballgame when compared to a subtropical cyclone) that has transitioned into a tropical cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 275
WTPQ50 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0908 MORAKOT (0908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 22.5N 134.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 450NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 23.6N 131.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 061200UTC 24.8N 128.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 071200UTC 26.0N 124.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 081200UTC 27.4N 121.4E 280NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
120HF 091200UTC 29.2N 119.3E 375NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 50 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 22.4N 133.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 133.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.0N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 23.8N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.7N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 27.4N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 29.1N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 133.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MORAKOT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TS
09W. RECENTLY A FLARE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
BASED ON RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS THE 35 KNOT WIND-
FIELD HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE
NORTHEAST, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. BASED ON THE
FORECASTED INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH, AND CONTINUED INCREASES
IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES/OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, THE POSSIBILITY
EXISTS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND
052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (GONI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 063
WTPQ50 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0908 MORAKOT (0908) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 22.5N 133.6E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 450NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 23.5N 130.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 061800UTC 24.8N 126.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 071800UTC 26.5N 123.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 081800UTC 27.9N 120.4E 280NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
120HF 091800UTC 28.8N 118.2E 375NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY =

[HURAKAN]

Very broad center

[HURAKAN]

David and Goliath!

[CrazyC83]

It may take a while to get organized with such a huge structure. I'd say 55 kt/974mb right now.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of work to do. The ballerina needs to pull its arms closer to the center

[CrazyC83]

A lot of work to do. The ballerina needs to pull its arms closer to the center

Kinda reminds me of Ike in the Gulf, albeit weaker...

[Derek Ortt]

and about 3X the size of Ike

[JTE50]

Here is the color IR loop from Guam (where I grew up)
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops ... color.html

Visible loop:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamvs.html

WV loop:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamwv.html

If I were on this one I'd go to Okinawa or north of Fuzhou, China

[JTE50]

Looks like Morakot is getting it's act together now on this just in visible image.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/GUAMVS.JPG

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 502
WTPQ50 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0908 MORAKOT (0908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 22.6N 133.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 475NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 23.9N 129.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 070000UTC 25.3N 124.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 080000UTC 26.3N 121.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 090000UTC 27.1N 119.7E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
120HF 100000UTC 28.2N 118.7E 300NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 22.5N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.1N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.7N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.3N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.7N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 28.3N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 132.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MORAKOT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (GONI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Giant eye beings to peek out

[Normandy]

Reminds me of Ike when it was in the Gulf of Mexico, but like Derek said larger. Gonna take another day or two for this to ramp up IMO due to its size. Should be interesting to watch unfold though.

[wxmann_91]

Reminds me of Ike when it was in the Gulf of Mexico, but like Derek said larger. Gonna take another day or two for this to ramp up IMO due to its size. Should be interesting to watch unfold though.

It's only got 2 days before downslope off the Taiwanese mountains starts affecting the system. But to be honest, it looks better than I thought it would at this stage - probably very close to typhoon status now (but not there yet due to the weak pressure gradient).

[CrazyC83]

With a storm like this, the surge will surely be much greater than what its intensity normally calls for...

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 707
WTPQ50 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0908 MORAKOT (0908) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 22.6N 132.1E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 325NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 23.8N 126.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 070600UTC 25.5N 122.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 080600UTC 26.9N 118.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 090600UTC 27.2N 118.4E 240NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 100600UTC 27.7N 118.0E 300NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY =
NNNN