WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

[StormingB81]

This storm should stay on it's path and not turn so it would be a direct hit to Okinawa. (wonder what kind of responses I will get from this post)

[Infdidoll]

This storm should stay on it's path and not turn so it would be a direct hit to Okinawa. (wonder what kind of responses I will get from this post)

lol...You are really trying to stir the pot, aren't you? They should have a gambling site for predicting who is going to get hit by typhoons if they don't already.

[StormingB81]

No I just want a typhoon. Yes and I know people are going to say I am crazy.

[StormingB81]

Now it will miss Okinawa by 189 NM. I will concede and conclude that this typhoon will MISS Okinawa.

[JTE50]

There was a reference to Choi Wan in this thread so I thought I would pass along this link from the Pacific Daily News. The US Navy came to the rescue of the injured on Alamagan after the eye of Choi Wan passed directly over them, some photos too: http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2009909190303

[JTE50]

wow, you can see the ocean through Melor's eye

[maraxus]

the 0530Z imagery



http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/0918.html
the 0900Z update from Japan Meteorological Agency.

[HURAKAN]

Still looks very powerful

[HURAKAN]

WTPN34 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 134.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.0N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 23.2N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.7N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.9N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.5N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 41.8N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 134.3E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL OF SUPER TYPHOON CLASSIFICATION AT 140
KNOTS. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AFTER PASSING TO THE EAST OF OKINAWA THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 35 TO 50 KNOT
WESTERLIES ALOFT (CONFIRMED BY A 050000Z SKEW-T SOUNDING FROM
OKINAWA). THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. SOUTH OF
TOKYO THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY,
WEAKEN FURTHER, AND GAIN EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL, AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW, BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 41
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 799
WTPQ52 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 19.2N 134.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 23.6N 130.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 070600UTC 27.9N 131.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 080600UTC 34.0N 137.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 090600UTC 39.5N 144.4E 350NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
120HF 100600UTC 43.8N 153.4E 450NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT =
NNNN

[StormingB81]

Looks like this thing may not turn may actually hit WEST of what the path is

[HURAKAN]

Looks like this thing may not turn may actually hit WEST of what the path is

Could you provide more details on this or is that just more wishful thinking on your part?

[StormingB81]

Wishful thinking..LOL

[cycloneye]

Wishful thinking..LOL

You are wishing it to go to your area,thats all,nothing scientific.

[StormingB81]

Sorry I cannot make a storm move in a paticular way. I dont have those powers

[HURAKAN]

The eye remains perfect but the convection looks weaker

[cycloneye]

Certainly is less than 140kts now.

[P.K.]

Remains at T7.0 from the JMA at 1200.

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be about 125 kt now in my opinion.

[Dianmu]

It's so beautiful......