555
WTNT41 KNHC 152105
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME BETTER DEFINED...WITH 1500 FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE
AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND ENOUGH WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER TO
JUSTIFY CALLING THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THESE
WESTERLIES ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 45 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON
THIS...THE LOW WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FAY...THE SIXTH OF
THE ATLANTIC SEASON.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12. FAY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A
WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
OR FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR. WHILE ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THIS WEAKNESS WILL CAUSE FAY TO TURN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS
IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST WHERE FAY WILL
TRACK. THE NAM CALLS FOR FAY TO PASS EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHILE THE HWRF CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS FORECAST A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS FAY TO TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND
INTERACTION CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AND REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR FAY
TO CROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF CUBA...THEN PASS
NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL
BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND INTERNAL STRUCTURE. THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO CROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND CUBA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES FROM THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW WELL ORGANIZED THE
STORM WILL BE AT THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT...AND THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT FAY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK THAT ALLOW FAY MORE
TIME OVER WATER WOULD RESULT IN A STORM STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 18.5N 69.4W 35 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 16/0600Z 18.9N 71.3W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 16/1800Z 19.4N 74.1W 35 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 81.0W 40 KT...OVER COAST OF FLORIDA
96HR VT 19/1800Z 26.5N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND OVER FLORIDA
120HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Fay HPC Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4391
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- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
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lonelymike
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 634
- Joined: Sat Jul 26, 2008 10:12 am
- Location: walton county fla
Re:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:AND THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT FAY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK THAT ALLOW FAY MORE
TIME OVER WATER WOULD RESULT IN A STORM STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
Always accentuate the negative
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4391
- Age: 42
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
Re: Re:
lonelymike wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:AND THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT FAY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK THAT ALLOW FAY MORE
TIME OVER WATER WOULD RESULT IN A STORM STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
Always accentuate the negative
I know im in the thread but why else are we here? To talk about sun and puffy Cirrus.?LOL
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MiamiensisWx
000
WTNT31 KNHC 152338
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
...TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN
PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES NORTHWARD...FOR THE TURK AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR LATITUDE 18.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT
335 MILES...540 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER
EASTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHIP OBERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING MAINLY OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY IS OVER HISPANIOLA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...18.6 N...70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT31 KNHC 152338
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
...TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN
PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES NORTHWARD...FOR THE TURK AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR LATITUDE 18.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT
335 MILES...540 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER
EASTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHIP OBERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING MAINLY OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY IS OVER HISPANIOLA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...18.6 N...70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Dean4Storms
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- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re: T S Fay Advisories=11 PM=NHC now forecasts a hurricane
31N 84W would put it making landfall in Appy Bay.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: T S Fay Advisories=11 PM=NHC now forecasts a hurricane
WTNT41 KNHC 160239
TCDAT1
WTNT31 KNHC 160237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
...FAY MOVING WESTWARD...APPROACHING HAITI...
AT 11 PM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PORT AU PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ENTIRE NORTH COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE
MACORIS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 305
MILES...490 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI EARLY
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY COULD WEAKEN SOME WHILE MOVING OVER LAND BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER ON
SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SANTO DOMINGO
RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.7 N...70.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
KNHC 160237
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008
AT 11 PM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PORT AU PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ENTIRE NORTH COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE
MACORIS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 70.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 50SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 70.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 70.2W
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 72.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.0N 81.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 27.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 70.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
WE KNOW THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS SOMEWHERE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
IMMEDIATE UNKNOWN IS HOW MUCH OF FAY WILL EMERGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOUR OR SO. BY LOOKING AT THE IMPRESSIVE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION...OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND THE STEADY WESTWARD MOTION...IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME
THAT FAY COULD SURVIVE THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA AND
MOVE ...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE SATURDAY MORNING.
IF SO...A NEW PROCESS OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN SINCE THE
SHEAR IS LIGHT AND THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM SOUTH OF CUBA. ONLY
THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA WOULD IMPEDE
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...MAKING FAY
A STRONG HURRICANE SOUTH OF CUBA AND EVEN A STRONGER ONE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTER CROSSING CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING BUT
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SIMPLY BECAUSE FAY IS EXPECTED TO STAY LONGER OVER WATER IN THIS
FORECAST.
BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING
CONTINUITY AND THE MOTION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS IS 275 DEGREES
AT 12 KNOTS. FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. BUT IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO ERODING THE RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE FAY TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN
GENERAL...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I
AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST...I WOULD RATHER WAIT
TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT.
IN SUMMARY...BOTH OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW AN
INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE MUST PAY VERY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0300Z 18.7N 70.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 18.8N 72.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.8W 50 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
48HR VT 18/0000Z 21.0N 79.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 24.0N 81.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 27.5N 83.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCDAT1
WTNT31 KNHC 160237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
...FAY MOVING WESTWARD...APPROACHING HAITI...
AT 11 PM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PORT AU PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ENTIRE NORTH COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE
MACORIS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 305
MILES...490 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI EARLY
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY COULD WEAKEN SOME WHILE MOVING OVER LAND BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER ON
SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SANTO DOMINGO
RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.7 N...70.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
KNHC 160237
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008
AT 11 PM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PORT AU PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ENTIRE NORTH COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE
MACORIS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 70.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 50SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 70.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 70.2W
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 72.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.0N 81.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 27.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 70.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
WE KNOW THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS SOMEWHERE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
IMMEDIATE UNKNOWN IS HOW MUCH OF FAY WILL EMERGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOUR OR SO. BY LOOKING AT THE IMPRESSIVE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION...OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND THE STEADY WESTWARD MOTION...IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME
THAT FAY COULD SURVIVE THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA AND
MOVE ...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE SATURDAY MORNING.
IF SO...A NEW PROCESS OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN SINCE THE
SHEAR IS LIGHT AND THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM SOUTH OF CUBA. ONLY
THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA WOULD IMPEDE
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...MAKING FAY
A STRONG HURRICANE SOUTH OF CUBA AND EVEN A STRONGER ONE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTER CROSSING CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING BUT
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SIMPLY BECAUSE FAY IS EXPECTED TO STAY LONGER OVER WATER IN THIS
FORECAST.
BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING
CONTINUITY AND THE MOTION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS IS 275 DEGREES
AT 12 KNOTS. FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. BUT IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO ERODING THE RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE FAY TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN
GENERAL...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I
AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST...I WOULD RATHER WAIT
TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT.
IN SUMMARY...BOTH OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW AN
INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE MUST PAY VERY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0300Z 18.7N 70.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 18.8N 72.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.8W 50 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
48HR VT 18/0000Z 21.0N 79.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 24.0N 81.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 27.5N 83.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: T S Fay Advisories=11 PM=NHC now forecasts a hurricane
Bottom line,we know Fay will become ahurricane but don't know how strong.She could potentially become a cat 4
0 likes
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139191
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 160554
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM AST SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER HISPANIOLA...
AT 200 AM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN
EXTENDED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE
MACORIS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...95 KM...EAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 260
MILES...415 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY COULD WEAKEN SOME WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON
SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...18.7 N...71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM AST SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER HISPANIOLA...
AT 200 AM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN
EXTENDED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE
MACORIS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...95 KM...EAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 260
MILES...415 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY COULD WEAKEN SOME WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON
SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...18.7 N...71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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246
WTNT21 KNHC 160850
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0900 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO ON THE
NORTHERN COAST TO SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS ON THE SOUTHERN COAST HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PROVINCES OF
CENTRAL CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 72.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 72.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 71.4W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.6N 76.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 78.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.8N 79.9W...NEAR SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 28.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 32.0N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 72.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT21 KNHC 160850
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0900 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO ON THE
NORTHERN COAST TO SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS ON THE SOUTHERN COAST HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PROVINCES OF
CENTRAL CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 72.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 72.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 71.4W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.6N 76.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 78.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.8N 79.9W...NEAR SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 28.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 32.0N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 72.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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WTNT31 KNHC 160852
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY WILL CROSS HAITI AND EMERGE OVER WATER LATER TODAY...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO ON THE
NORTHERN COAST TO SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS ON THE SOUTHERN COAST HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PROVINCES OF CENTRAL CUBA
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES... 35 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
235 MILES...375 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE MOVING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FAY COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON
SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...18.7 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY WILL CROSS HAITI AND EMERGE OVER WATER LATER TODAY...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO ON THE
NORTHERN COAST TO SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS ON THE SOUTHERN COAST HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PROVINCES OF CENTRAL CUBA
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES... 35 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
235 MILES...375 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE MOVING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FAY COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON
SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...18.7 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PROVINCES OF CENTRAL CUBA
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
170 MILES...275 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE MOVING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING OVER HAITI THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON
SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...18.8 N...72.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PROVINCES OF CENTRAL CUBA
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
170 MILES...275 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE MOVING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING OVER HAITI THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON
SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...18.8 N...72.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139191
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 161435
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM HAITI...NEW WARNINGS AND
WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...
AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO IS IN EFFECT
FOE THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. ALSO....THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
130 MILES...205 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL CUBA ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...19.0 N...73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
562
WTNT21 KNHC 161435
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1500 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...
AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO IS IN EFFECT
FOE THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. ALSO....THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 73.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 73.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 72.9W
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.1N 79.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.7N 80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.0N 82.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 75SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 32.5N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 73.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM HAITI...NEW WARNINGS AND
WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...
AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO IS IN EFFECT
FOE THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. ALSO....THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
130 MILES...205 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL CUBA ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...19.0 N...73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
562
WTNT21 KNHC 161435
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1500 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...
AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO IS IN EFFECT
FOE THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. ALSO....THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 73.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 73.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 72.9W
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.1N 79.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.7N 80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.0N 82.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 75SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 32.5N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 73.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories
363
WTNT41 KNHC 161507
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS NOW OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THE STORM PRODUCED A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST DURING THE NIGHT OVER
THE WATER SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
BURST WAS AT THE FAR END OF A CONVECTIVE BAND AND NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT
BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY AROUND 18Z TO
PROVIDE BETTER DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13. FAY REMAINS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OR FLORIDA THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 36 HR. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAM ARE FARTHEST TO THE EAST...CALLING FOR
FAY TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. THE
GFDL IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. THE GFS...HWRF...FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST
CENTRAL CUBA AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE UKMET AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO
MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE NOGAPS IS THE FARTHEST
WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THUS...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AFTER 48 HR. EVERYONE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.
WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY
WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON
THE STORM STRUCTURE. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...AND
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY
FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL
ORGANIZED OVER WATER. ON THE OTHER HAND IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 19.0N 73.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.5W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/0000Z 21.1N 79.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 22.7N 80.6W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/1200Z 26.0N 82.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 21/1200Z 32.5N 83.0W 35 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT41 KNHC 161507
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS NOW OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THE STORM PRODUCED A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST DURING THE NIGHT OVER
THE WATER SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
BURST WAS AT THE FAR END OF A CONVECTIVE BAND AND NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT
BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY AROUND 18Z TO
PROVIDE BETTER DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13. FAY REMAINS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OR FLORIDA THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 36 HR. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAM ARE FARTHEST TO THE EAST...CALLING FOR
FAY TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. THE
GFDL IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. THE GFS...HWRF...FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST
CENTRAL CUBA AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE UKMET AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO
MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE NOGAPS IS THE FARTHEST
WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THUS...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AFTER 48 HR. EVERYONE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.
WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY
WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON
THE STORM STRUCTURE. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...AND
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY
FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL
ORGANIZED OVER WATER. ON THE OTHER HAND IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 19.0N 73.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.5W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/0000Z 21.1N 79.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 22.7N 80.6W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/1200Z 26.0N 82.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 21/1200Z 32.5N 83.0W 35 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 161743
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA AND ABOUT
175 MILES...280 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL CUBA ON SUNDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE FAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...19.2 N...74.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT31 KNHC 161743
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA AND ABOUT
175 MILES...280 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL CUBA ON SUNDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE FAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...19.2 N...74.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Brent
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CINEFUEGOS...AND
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND
SANCTI SPIRITUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CANCELED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELED NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 75.2W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 75.2W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 74.6W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N 77.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N 79.1W...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N 81.6W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N 82.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 75.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CINEFUEGOS...AND
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND
SANCTI SPIRITUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CANCELED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELED NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 75.2W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 75.2W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 74.6W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N 77.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N 79.1W...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N 81.6W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N 82.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 75.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Brent
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY WEAKER BUT RE-ORGANIZING SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...NEW WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR CUBA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND
SANCTI SPIRITUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CANCELED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELED NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 225
MILES...365 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT FAY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS WESTERN CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WHILE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...75.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY WEAKER BUT RE-ORGANIZING SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...NEW WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR CUBA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND
SANCTI SPIRITUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CANCELED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELED NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 225
MILES...365 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT FAY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS WESTERN CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WHILE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...75.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37123
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT FAY
IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN BELIEVED EARLIER...WITH THE INITIAL
INTENSITY NEAR 35 KT AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE WAS RAGGED A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT A NEW CLUSTER
OF STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR
ELSEWHERE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. FAY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA
THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH
AFTER 36 HR. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN
AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND HAVE BEEN JOINED BY
THE GFDL WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THESE
MODELS CALL FOR A SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA LANDFALL. THE GFS...HWRF...
GFDN...FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS
FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE
BOTH SHIFTED EAST OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT ARE STILL ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CALLING FOR A MOTION TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AFTER THE 48 HR POINT. EVERYONE IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST
LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT.
WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY
WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON
THE STORM STRUCTURE. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
INTENSITY FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES
WELL ORGANIZED OVER WATER...SUCH AS WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF CUBA OR
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ON THE OTHER HAND...IT MIGHT NOT
STRENGTHEN MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FAY TO WEAKEN OVER THE UNITED
STATES AFTER LANDFALL. SHOULD IT REMAIN OVER WATER AFTER 72
HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.3N 75.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 19.9N 77.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 20.9N 79.1W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 23.6N 81.6W 55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 82.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 21/1800Z 33.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT FAY
IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN BELIEVED EARLIER...WITH THE INITIAL
INTENSITY NEAR 35 KT AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE WAS RAGGED A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT A NEW CLUSTER
OF STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR
ELSEWHERE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. FAY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA
THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH
AFTER 36 HR. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN
AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND HAVE BEEN JOINED BY
THE GFDL WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THESE
MODELS CALL FOR A SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA LANDFALL. THE GFS...HWRF...
GFDN...FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS
FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE
BOTH SHIFTED EAST OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT ARE STILL ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CALLING FOR A MOTION TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AFTER THE 48 HR POINT. EVERYONE IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST
LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT.
WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY
WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON
THE STORM STRUCTURE. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
INTENSITY FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES
WELL ORGANIZED OVER WATER...SUCH AS WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF CUBA OR
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ON THE OTHER HAND...IT MIGHT NOT
STRENGTHEN MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FAY TO WEAKEN OVER THE UNITED
STATES AFTER LANDFALL. SHOULD IT REMAIN OVER WATER AFTER 72
HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.3N 75.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 19.9N 77.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 20.9N 79.1W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 23.6N 81.6W 55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 82.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 21/1800Z 33.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139191
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 162348
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA...
AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...AND FOR CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE
MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...70KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FAY IS BECOMING A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS
WESTERN CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND ARE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA...
AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...AND FOR CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE
MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...70KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FAY IS BECOMING A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS
WESTERN CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND ARE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
-
vacanechaser
- Category 5
- Posts: 1461
- Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
- Location: Portsmouth, Va
- Contact:
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA...
AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...AND FOR CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE
MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...70KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FAY IS BECOMING A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS
WESTERN CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND ARE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA...
AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...AND FOR CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE
MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...70KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FAY IS BECOMING A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS
WESTERN CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND ARE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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