ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal Model Runs
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- brunota2003
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs
450
WHXX01 KWBC 181853
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1853 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080718 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 1800 080719 0600 080719 1800 080720 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.2N 80.4W 32.0N 80.2W 32.8N 79.8W 33.1N 79.0W
BAMD 31.2N 80.4W 31.5N 80.7W 31.8N 80.9W 32.2N 80.9W
BAMM 31.2N 80.4W 31.8N 80.5W 32.4N 80.3W 32.7N 79.8W
LBAR 31.2N 80.4W 31.5N 80.5W 32.1N 80.5W 32.9N 80.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 33KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 33KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800 080723 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.4N 77.6W 33.6N 73.3W 35.2N 68.6W 38.3N 64.3W
BAMD 32.5N 80.4W 32.2N 78.0W 32.7N 77.4W 33.4N 77.8W
BAMM 33.0N 78.7W 32.9N 75.2W 34.5N 71.9W 37.2N 68.0W
LBAR 33.5N 79.4W 35.4N 76.0W 39.8N 69.6W 54.3N 53.7W
SHIP 37KTS 46KTS 54KTS 45KTS
DSHP 37KTS 46KTS 54KTS 45KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.2N LONCUR = 80.4W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 30.8N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 344DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 30.5N LONM24 = 80.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 181853
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1853 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080718 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 1800 080719 0600 080719 1800 080720 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.2N 80.4W 32.0N 80.2W 32.8N 79.8W 33.1N 79.0W
BAMD 31.2N 80.4W 31.5N 80.7W 31.8N 80.9W 32.2N 80.9W
BAMM 31.2N 80.4W 31.8N 80.5W 32.4N 80.3W 32.7N 79.8W
LBAR 31.2N 80.4W 31.5N 80.5W 32.1N 80.5W 32.9N 80.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 33KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 33KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800 080723 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.4N 77.6W 33.6N 73.3W 35.2N 68.6W 38.3N 64.3W
BAMD 32.5N 80.4W 32.2N 78.0W 32.7N 77.4W 33.4N 77.8W
BAMM 33.0N 78.7W 32.9N 75.2W 34.5N 71.9W 37.2N 68.0W
LBAR 33.5N 79.4W 35.4N 76.0W 39.8N 69.6W 54.3N 53.7W
SHIP 37KTS 46KTS 54KTS 45KTS
DSHP 37KTS 46KTS 54KTS 45KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.2N LONCUR = 80.4W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 30.8N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 344DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 30.5N LONM24 = 80.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- storms in NC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs
WHXX01 KWBC 190024
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032008) 20080719 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080719 0000 080719 1200 080720 0000 080720 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.7N 79.8W 32.5N 79.4W 33.2N 78.5W 33.5N 77.2W
BAMD 31.7N 79.8W 32.0N 80.0W 32.5N 79.9W 32.8N 79.3W
BAMM 31.7N 79.8W 32.4N 79.8W 33.0N 79.2W 33.4N 78.0W
LBAR 31.7N 79.8W 32.4N 79.6W 33.3N 79.0W 34.1N 77.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080721 0000 080722 0000 080723 0000 080724 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.5N 75.5W 33.3N 72.7W 34.0N 71.6W 37.9N 68.5W
BAMD 32.8N 78.1W 32.6N 77.3W 33.9N 77.4W 37.1N 74.5W
BAMM 33.4N 76.3W 33.6N 74.3W 35.3N 73.4W 39.9N 68.8W
LBAR 34.8N 76.2W 37.3N 71.9W 45.2N 62.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 31KTS 34KTS 42KTS 43KTS
DSHP 31KTS 34KTS 42KTS 43KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.7N LONCUR = 79.8W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 31.1N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 19DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 30.8N LONM24 = 80.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032008) 20080719 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080719 0000 080719 1200 080720 0000 080720 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.7N 79.8W 32.5N 79.4W 33.2N 78.5W 33.5N 77.2W
BAMD 31.7N 79.8W 32.0N 80.0W 32.5N 79.9W 32.8N 79.3W
BAMM 31.7N 79.8W 32.4N 79.8W 33.0N 79.2W 33.4N 78.0W
LBAR 31.7N 79.8W 32.4N 79.6W 33.3N 79.0W 34.1N 77.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080721 0000 080722 0000 080723 0000 080724 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.5N 75.5W 33.3N 72.7W 34.0N 71.6W 37.9N 68.5W
BAMD 32.8N 78.1W 32.6N 77.3W 33.9N 77.4W 37.1N 74.5W
BAMM 33.4N 76.3W 33.6N 74.3W 35.3N 73.4W 39.9N 68.8W
LBAR 34.8N 76.2W 37.3N 71.9W 45.2N 62.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 31KTS 34KTS 42KTS 43KTS
DSHP 31KTS 34KTS 42KTS 43KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.7N LONCUR = 79.8W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 31.1N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 19DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 30.8N LONM24 = 80.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
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- brunota2003
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- Stormtrack03
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs
According to local forecaster, we may not see much rain in SC at all, because of all the dry air... we did have some yesterday though so that will help some really dry areas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs
hopefully the nc coast will benefit from rain since it juts out farther than charleston and the southern sc coastline.
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- brunota2003
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well wouldn't you know i see a loop.... that is not surprising at all since the trough that is supposed pick this up is hardly anywhere to be found .. also kind of creepy it makes landfall in NC than does a loop to make landfall again in nearly the same spot that would be interesting to watch lol not good for the residents but interesting
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- webke
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Re:
brunota2003 wrote:Oh lovely...almost all coming directly over me...The only question remaining with those is, does it hug the coast or stay out further offshore before moving into Onslow County?
Dont feel bad , based on that I have no choice so I'll see what it brings.
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:well wouldn't you know i see a loop.... that is not surprising at all since the trough that is supposed pick this up is hardly anywhere to be found .. also kind of creepy it makes landfall in NC than does a loop to make landfall again in nearly the same spot that would be interesting to watch lol not good for the residents but interesting
if it stays weak, the loop wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.
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- webke
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs
Rainband wrote:Hopefully areas that need rain get some but not too much.
I hope the areas that need it in NC get it, however here where I am we had rain everyday last week and i am not sure if the ground can soak up a major rainfall.
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- brunota2003
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Re: Re:
Bane wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:well wouldn't you know i see a loop.... that is not surprising at all since the trough that is supposed pick this up is hardly anywhere to be found .. also kind of creepy it makes landfall in NC than does a loop to make landfall again in nearly the same spot that would be interesting to watch lol not good for the residents but interesting
if it stays weak, the loop wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.
But at the same time, it can be. It is slow moving, so it would possibly bring flooding...Anyone remember Dennis the Menace in 1999, and what came after he did his loopy loop?
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Re: Re:
brunota2003 wrote:Bane wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:well wouldn't you know i see a loop.... that is not surprising at all since the trough that is supposed pick this up is hardly anywhere to be found .. also kind of creepy it makes landfall in NC than does a loop to make landfall again in nearly the same spot that would be interesting to watch lol not good for the residents but interesting
if it stays weak, the loop wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.
But at the same time, it can be. It is slow moving, so it would possibly bring flooding...Anyone remember Dennis the Menace in 1999, and what came after he did his loopy loop?
I believe the loops is response the system being stronger and hence the midlevel ridge that is going to building north if would induce a motion like that ..
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Re: Re:
not sure this is like dennisbrunota2003 wrote:Bane wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:well wouldn't you know i see a loop.... that is not surprising at all since the trough that is supposed pick this up is hardly anywhere to be found .. also kind of creepy it makes landfall in NC than does a loop to make landfall again in nearly the same spot that would be interesting to watch lol not good for the residents but interesting
if it stays weak, the loop wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.
But at the same time, it can be. It is slow moving, so it would possibly bring flooding...Anyone remember Dennis the Menace in 1999, and what came after he did his loopy loop?
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