South Pacific Ocean: Invest 96P

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Saturday 9 February 2008

A weak tropical low is located in the GULF OF CARPENTARIA to the east of Groote
Eylandt. The low is expected to move southeast and may develop in the short term
but is expected to move over land by Monday. Increasing showers and storms over
the Top End and northern waters is due to a developing northwest monsoonal flow.


The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
Saturday: low,
Sunday: low,
Monday: low.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[Squarethecircle]

Lol, I don't get it. Is this some sort of practical joke?

[HURAKAN]

Lots of convection.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.4S 137.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT
METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THIS AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL
WINDS SHEAR AND HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

[HurricaneRobert]

This is probably one of those cyclones that strengthens over land. Australia gets lots of Erins.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Lots of convection.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 7:55 am CST Sunday 10 February 2008

A weak tropical low is located in the GULF OF CARPENTARIA to the east of Groote
Eylandt. The low is expected to move southeast and may develop in the short term
but is expected to move over land by Monday. Increasing showers and storms over
the Top End and northern waters is due to a developing northwest monsoonal flow.


The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
Sunday: low,
Monday: low,
Tuesday: low.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[HURAKAN]

09/2030 UTC 15.5S 139.0E T1.5/1.5 96P -- South Pacific Ocean





Popping.

[HURAKAN]

Trying to organize but too close to land.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
137.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM WEST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY AND A MORNINGTON
ISLAND RADAR LOOP INDICATE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. A 091942Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 2112Z QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOWS 15 TO 20-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

10/0230 UTC 16.0S 140.1E T1.5/1.5 96P -- South Pacific Ocean





Lots and lots of convection.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK


TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Sunday 10 February 2008

A tropical low is located in the GULF OF CARPENTARIA to the north of Mornington
Island. The low is expected to move over land tonight and is not expected to
develop into a Tropical Cyclone during the next few days.

The active monsoon is generating squally showers and storms over the Top End.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S
138.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 139.8E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT AND MORNINGTON ISLAND
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[Coredesat]

Over land now but still looks good.

[Squarethecircle]

Ah yes. We here have another land-liver. It does look pretty nice.

[HURAKAN]

It looks like a cyclone.

[Coredesat]

If it manages to make it over water I could see Brisbane upgrading it straight away. The next name on its list is Rebecca.

However, right now there's no mention of it in TCWC Brisbane's bulletins.

[Sanibel]

Over land and dumping rain on Queensland.

[Coredesat]

Apparently I'm wrong.

IDQ20032
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds and Flash Flooding
For people in the following forecast districts:
Peninsula south of Weipa;
Gulf Country to the north and to the east of Karumba;
northern parts of Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders.
Issued at 11:20 pm on Sunday 10 February 2008

Synoptic situation: A monsoon low is crossing the coast near Karumba and is
expected to continue moving southeast towards Richmond this evening.

The low is expected to remain an intense system as it moves inland with the
likelihood of very heavy rainfall, particularly on its eastern flank, and
locally damaging wind gusts up to 90 km/h in the warning area.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:

- seek shelter, indoors where possible, and never under trees
- secure outdoor items
- beware of fallen trees and powerlines
- avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.

The next warning is due to be issued by 5 am Monday EST.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and State Emergency
Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.