H Dolly Recon Reports:

[ekal]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230536
AF304 1804A DOLLY HDOB 35 20080723
052530 2626N 09450W 6967 03147 0056 +081 +060 140050 051 034 004 00
052600 2627N 09449W 6964 03151 0055 +083 +060 141050 051 034 000 00
052630 2629N 09447W 6968 03148 0058 +082 +060 138047 050 035 001 00
052700 2630N 09446W 6967 03150 0061 +081 +060 139044 045 035 004 00
052730 2631N 09444W 6968 03149 0055 +085 +060 139045 046 034 001 00
052800 2633N 09443W 6957 03164 0056 +086 +060 137046 047 999 999 03
052830 2634N 09444W 6964 03154 0077 +071 +060 134047 048 999 999 03
052900 2634N 09446W 6963 03156 0075 +072 +060 133042 046 030 007 03
052930 2633N 09448W 6964 03154 0054 +086 +060 136039 040 035 004 03
053000 2632N 09450W 6965 03150 0056 +084 +060 135043 045 036 002 00
053030 2631N 09452W 6967 03149 0048 +089 +060 134046 047 036 002 00
053100 2631N 09454W 6965 03148 0055 +082 +060 133048 048 035 004 00
053130 2630N 09456W 6968 03144 0060 +078 +060 133048 048 035 003 00
053200 2630N 09458W 6969 03143 0060 +077 +060 132049 050 035 004 00
053230 2629N 09500W 6966 03145 0053 +081 +060 134047 049 032 004 00
053300 2629N 09502W 6964 03145 0048 +084 +060 132046 046 034 002 00
053330 2628N 09505W 6971 03136 0045 +085 +060 130047 049 035 001 00
053400 2628N 09507W 6967 03138 0043 +085 +060 129050 051 036 001 00
053430 2627N 09509W 6965 03139 0036 +088 +060 129050 051 036 000 00
053500 2627N 09511W 6964 03139 0039 +085 +060 128048 049 038 000 00
$$
;

[ekal]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230546
AF304 1804A DOLLY HDOB 36 20080723
053530 2627N 09513W 6965 03137 0036 +085 +060 127048 048 037 000 00
053600 2626N 09515W 6967 03134 0035 +087 +060 128047 048 036 000 00
053630 2626N 09518W 6963 03139 0027 +091 +060 127048 049 036 000 00
053700 2625N 09520W 6966 03134 0022 +098 +060 125049 049 038 000 00
053730 2625N 09522W 6967 03132 0024 +093 +060 123050 050 041 000 00
053800 2624N 09524W 6965 03134 0024 +094 +060 127049 051 041 000 00
053830 2624N 09526W 6965 03132 0030 +090 +060 127050 050 040 000 00
053900 2623N 09529W 6966 03130 0029 +088 +060 125048 048 040 000 00
053930 2623N 09531W 6964 03131 0029 +087 +060 122047 048 041 000 00
054000 2622N 09533W 6967 03127 0024 +087 +060 120047 048 042 000 00
054030 2622N 09535W 6968 03125 0025 +086 +060 120048 049 041 000 00
054100 2621N 09537W 6969 03122 0027 +085 +060 118049 050 041 002 00
054130 2621N 09540W 6960 03131 0029 +082 +060 116049 049 042 002 00
054200 2620N 09542W 6967 03122 0023 +085 +060 114048 048 042 001 00
054230 2619N 09544W 6963 03125 0020 +085 +060 112050 051 043 001 00
054300 2619N 09546W 6967 03119 0015 +090 +060 113050 050 044 002 00
054330 2618N 09549W 6965 03120 0010 +090 +060 110048 049 043 001 00
054400 2618N 09551W 6965 03119 0012 +090 +060 107048 048 045 001 00
054430 2617N 09553W 6961 03123 0009 +091 +060 107049 049 045 000 00
054500 2617N 09556W 6967 03115 0011 +090 +060 105050 050 045 000 00
$$
;

[gotoman38]

[Thunder44]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 230530
XXAA 73057 99255 70959 08255 99986 26000 10574 00622 ///// /////
92566 23200 13588 85304 20205 13565 70967 11018 14063 88999 77999
31313 09608 80502
61616 AF304 1804A DOLLY OB 16
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2553N09598W 0506 MBL WND 11588 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 13071 986718 WL150 11082 075 =
XXBB 73058 99255 70959 08255 00986 26000 11850 20205 22705 14414
33696 08222
21212 00986 10574 11979 11585 22960 11586 33953 11592 44949 11585
55944 12095 66936 13098 77910 14076 88890 13577 99863 13564 11850
13565 22718 13553 33696 14066
31313 09608 80502
61616 AF304 1804A DOLLY OB 16
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2553N09598W 0506 MBL WND 11588 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 13071 986718 WL150 11082 075 =
;

Eyewall drosponde:
Surface Winds (986mb) 74kts
979mb 85kts
960mb 86kts
953mb 92kts
949mb 85kts
925mb 88kts
850mb 65kts
700mb 63kts
MBL Wind 88kts

[ekal]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230556
AF304 1804A DOLLY HDOB 37 20080723
054530 2616N 09558W 6968 03113 0011 +085 +060 104050 050 045 001 00
054600 2616N 09600W 6963 03116 0014 +085 +060 101051 051 045 002 00
054630 2615N 09602W 6963 03117 0009 +085 +060 098051 052 044 001 00
054700 2615N 09605W 6967 03111 0010 +086 +060 097050 051 044 001 00
054730 2614N 09607W 6970 03108 0013 +085 +060 094050 050 044 003 00
054800 2614N 09610W 6963 03114 0013 +082 +060 093050 051 044 003 00
054830 2613N 09612W 6967 03110 0011 +085 +060 092050 051 044 002 00
054900 2612N 09614W 6965 03110 0009 +085 +060 090049 049 044 003 00
054930 2612N 09617W 6964 03111 0008 +084 +060 090052 053 044 002 00
055000 2611N 09619W 6968 03105 0009 +085 +060 087053 053 044 004 00
055030 2611N 09621W 6964 03110 0012 +081 +060 083052 052 045 005 00
055100 2610N 09624W 6967 03106 0008 +083 +060 083052 053 043 007 00
055130 2610N 09626W 6965 03108 0002 +087 +060 083053 053 041 005 00
055200 2609N 09629W 6963 03110 9999 +089 +060 082054 055 041 003 00
055230 2609N 09631W 6970 03103 0002 +088 +060 080052 054 043 004 00
055300 2608N 09633W 6966 03110 0013 +082 +060 076048 050 043 005 00
055330 2607N 09636W 6963 03111 0017 +078 +060 067047 048 044 005 00
055400 2607N 09638W 6966 03110 0021 +076 +060 063053 053 044 006 00
055430 2606N 09641W 6969 03108 0012 +083 +060 062053 055 044 006 00
055500 2606N 09643W 6962 03119 0007 +087 +060 062054 055 044 004 00
$$
;

[gotoman38]

[ekal]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230606
AF304 1804A DOLLY HDOB 38 20080723
055530 2605N 09645W 6967 03114 0024 +077 +060 061050 053 044 006 00
055600 2605N 09648W 6964 03117 0046 +062 +060 056049 050 047 014 00
055630 2604N 09650W 6963 03119 0045 +063 +060 050050 052 048 011 00
055700 2603N 09652W 6967 03117 0018 +084 +060 047045 046 047 004 00
055730 2603N 09655W 6965 03119 0014 +086 +060 045042 042 045 002 00
055800 2602N 09657W 6963 03123 0014 +088 +060 041043 043 042 001 00
055830 2602N 09659W 6966 03120 0012 +091 +060 039042 043 038 000 00
055900 2601N 09701W 6964 03121 0018 +085 +060 040043 044 035 000 03
055930 2559N 09702W 6969 03115 0014 +087 +060 038040 042 999 999 03
060000 2558N 09701W 6973 03106 0009 +089 +060 036037 038 033 001 00
060030 2557N 09659W 6965 03116 0008 +090 +060 034040 041 035 000 00
060100 2556N 09658W 6965 03114 0007 +088 +060 034039 040 037 001 00
060130 2554N 09656W 6965 03112 0006 +088 +060 032039 040 040 002 00
060200 2553N 09655W 6962 03114 0005 +086 +060 032041 042 041 003 00
060230 2552N 09653W 6966 03105 0001 +087 +060 030040 042 042 004 00
060300 2550N 09652W 6965 03104 9996 +088 +060 029039 040 041 004 00
060330 2549N 09650W 6959 03106 9988 +090 +060 030041 044 041 003 00
060400 2548N 09649W 6965 03095 9981 +092 +060 033044 045 041 005 00
060430 2546N 09648W 6967 03089 9981 +087 +060 038049 050 043 007 00
060500 2545N 09646W 6965 03083 9987 +078 +060 035049 051 046 011 00
$$
;

Getting ready for a penetration.

[Derek Ortt]

25.2N 96.3W according to NHC

an hour earlier, I had it at 25.1N 96.1W

to those who think this is going to turn north, forget about it. It is not moving north and it is getting to the point where it is going to be very hard to reach the border

[gotoman38]

Penetration prepared

[ekal]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230616
AF304 1804A DOLLY HDOB 39 20080723
060530 2544N 09645W 6969 03073 9992 +072 +060 031046 047 046 010 00
060600 2543N 09643W 6967 03071 9964 +087 +060 035050 051 046 006 00
060630 2541N 09642W 6965 03069 9944 +097 +060 033051 052 047 006 00
060700 2540N 09640W 6966 03062 9950 +089 +060 036052 053 048 006 00
060730 2539N 09639W 6964 03058 9944 +087 +060 035055 057 052 012 00
060800 2538N 09638W 6962 03052 9953 +074 +060 032049 050 055 016 00
060830 2536N 09636W 6971 03036 9950 +072 +060 029051 054 055 015 00
060900 2535N 09635W 6965 03034 9916 +090 +060 033052 053 052 007 00
060930 2534N 09633W 6965 03025 9890 +101 +060 030055 055 054 005 00
061000 2532N 09632W 6963 03017 9884 +098 +060 026055 057 053 004 03
061030 2531N 09630W 6968 03003 9871 +100 +060 022053 053 053 004 00
061100 2530N 09628W 6965 02993 9852 +105 +060 019056 058 053 005 00
061130 2530N 09627W 6962 02985 9842 +101 +060 019053 059 053 006 00
061200 2529N 09625W 6964 02970 9841 +093 +060 021037 043 049 013 00
061230 2528N 09623W 6961 02969 9804 +115 +060 024025 026 037 003 00
061300 2527N 09621W 6965 02957 9789 +120 +060 023021 024 027 001 00
061330 2527N 09619W 6967 02950 9785 +119 +060 004012 015 017 001 00
061400 2526N 09617W 6965 02947 9789 +111 +060 322007 008 008 001 03
061430 2527N 09616W 6967 02942 9792 +108 +060 290001 004 015 000 03
061500 2528N 09614W 6963 02944 9801 +105 +058 198003 007 002 002 03
$$
;

59 knots FL; 55 knots SFMR.
Pressure 978.5 mb extrap.

[gotoman38]

[gotoman38]

Hooking N?

or is USAF just searching for the core?

or a wobble?

[ekal]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230626
AF304 1804A DOLLY HDOB 40 20080723
061530 2527N 09612W 6963 02946 9787 +112 +060 196007 008 013 001 03
061600 2526N 09611W 6964 02947 9795 +108 +060 209011 014 014 000 00
061630 2524N 09609W 6968 02946 9799 +106 +060 202015 016 013 000 00
061700 2523N 09608W 6964 02952 9795 +110 +060 204016 017 017 000 00
061730 2522N 09607W 6967 02953 9797 +115 +060 200022 023 020 000 00
061800 2521N 09605W 6968 02952 9797 +115 +060 203025 025 026 000 00
061830 2519N 09604W 6965 02958 9799 +115 +060 204032 034 040 004 00
061900 2518N 09603W 6968 02959 9805 +114 +060 210038 040 054 002 00
061930 2517N 09602W 6962 02972 9826 +103 +060 216052 059 061 015 00
062000 2516N 09600W 6976 02965 9869 +081 +060 220071 073 064 013 00
062030 2514N 09559W 6960 02995 9885 +078 +060 216070 071 064 016 00
062100 2513N 09558W 6973 02994 9906 +072 +060 215068 069 063 015 00
062130 2512N 09557W 6965 03015 9911 +078 +060 218066 067 062 009 00
062200 2511N 09555W 6967 03026 9900 +096 +060 220063 064 060 004 00
062230 2510N 09554W 6963 03038 9924 +085 +060 223066 068 060 006 00
062300 2509N 09553W 6974 03033 9947 +074 +060 225067 071 058 010 00
062330 2507N 09551W 6962 03053 9936 +087 +060 230064 068 058 006 00
062400 2506N 09550W 6966 03054 9946 +087 +060 231059 060 055 005 00
062430 2506N 09550W 6966 03054 9956 +083 +058 229058 059 055 005 00
062500 2504N 09547W 6961 03075 9958 +087 +060 229054 055 053 004 00
$$
;

73 knots FL; 64 knots SFMR.
Looks like they are proceeding as planned through the SE quad, go2, but my mental lat/lon plotter is a little sketchy and I will wait for your plot to be sure.

[gotoman38]

[ekal]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230636
AF304 1804A DOLLY HDOB 41 20080723
062530 2502N 09546W 6961 03078 9975 +079 +060 227053 055 054 009 00
062600 2501N 09545W 6972 03070 9994 +068 +060 233054 055 055 016 00
062630 2500N 09543W 6956 03093 0010 +060 +060 225049 055 052 017 00
062700 2458N 09542W 6962 03087 0017 +057 +057 212048 053 052 015 00
062730 2457N 09541W 6959 03092 0006 +064 +060 210048 049 052 013 00
062800 2456N 09540W 6971 03078 9992 +076 +060 213049 050 049 013 00
062830 2455N 09538W 6971 03081 0013 +063 +060 212053 054 045 008 00
062900 2454N 09537W 6963 03094 0010 +067 +060 209053 054 046 006 00
062930 2453N 09536W 6966 03093 0001 +076 +060 211051 052 045 005 00
063000 2451N 09535W 6965 03096 0010 +072 +058 211051 051 044 005 00
063030 2450N 09533W 6967 03098 0006 +078 +060 211054 055 043 002 00
063100 2449N 09532W 6964 03104 0013 +074 +058 212052 053 043 003 00
063130 2448N 09531W 6968 03102 0012 +078 +060 210048 049 042 003 00
063200 2447N 09530W 6963 03109 0015 +076 +060 213049 049 041 004 00
063230 2445N 09528W 6964 03110 0017 +076 +060 211047 048 040 000 00
063300 2444N 09527W 6965 03110 0016 +079 +060 210046 046 040 000 00
063330 2443N 09526W 6967 03109 0018 +078 +060 210046 047 039 000 00
063400 2442N 09525W 6963 03116 0020 +079 +060 212047 047 039 001 00
063430 2441N 09523W 6966 03113 0015 +085 +060 213047 048 039 001 00
063500 2439N 09522W 6963 03119 0020 +080 +060 213046 046 040 001 00
$$
;

[ekal]

000
URNT12 KNHC 230637
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 23/06:14:30Z
B. 25 deg 27 min N
096 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2902 m
D. 55 kt
E. 296 deg 22 nm
F. 020 deg 060 kt
G. 286 deg 011 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 10 C/ 3049 m
J. 12 C/ 3047 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. C22
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1804A DOLLY OB 19
MAX FL WIND 75 KT NE QUAD 05:04:20 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 73 KT SE QUAD 06:20:10 Z
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 64 KT SE QUAD 06:20:20 Z
;

Contrary to what radar suggests, eyewall is still open.
Pressure down slightly.

[gotoman38]

Looks like they are proceeding as planned through the SE quad, go2, but my mental lat/lon plotter is a little sketchy and I will wait for your plot to be sure.

Noles are shite Pack rules.

I have started to depend on computer map plots too btw

Rock on - how many more flights are there tonight?

[gotoman38]

Back on topic

[RL3AO]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 230641
XXAA 73067 99255 70963 08256 99980 26820 13505 00678 ///// /////
92512 23614 16007 85251 21034 16005 70913 11800 19502 88999 77999
31313 09608 80614
61616 AF304 1804A DOLLY OB 21
62626 EYE SPL 2545N09625W 0618 MBL WND 14506 AEV 00000 DLM WND 15
503 980728 WL150 14006 075 =
XXBB 73068 99255 70963 08256 00980 26820 11850 21034 22735 14836
33715 13014 44707 13801 55697 11000
21212 00980 13505 11903 13008 22872 16502 33850 16005 44697 18502
31313 09608 80614
61616 AF304 1804A DOLLY OB 21
62626 EYE SPL 2545N09625W 0618 MBL WND 14506 AEV 00000 DLM WND 15
503 980728 WL150 14006 075 =
;


Dropped in the center.

[ekal]

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
11145 AM EDT MON 21 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2008
         TCPOD NUMBER.....08-051
I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

    1. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70      FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 22/18Z,21Z, & 23/00Z    A. 23/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 1604 DOLLY        B. NOAA9 1704A DOLLY
       C. 22/1515Z                C. 22/1730Z
       D. 24.7N 94.5W             D. NA
       E. 22/1700Z TO 23/0000Z    E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. 41000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43    FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
       A. 23/0000Z                A. 23/03Z, 06Z, 09Z
       B. NOAA3 1804A DOLLY       B. AFXXX 1904A DOLLY
       C. 22/2030Z                C. 23/0001Z
       D. 25.2N 95.2 W            D. 25.3N 95.5W
       E. 22/2230Z TO 23/0300Z    E. 23/0200Z TO 23/0900Z
       F. SFC TO 14,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 42     FLIGHT SIX -- TEAL 72
       A. 23/1200Z                A. 23/12Z,15Z,18Z
       B. NOAA2 2004A DOLLY       B. AFXXX 2104A DOLLY
       C. 23/0900Z                C. 23/0900Z
       D. 25.9N 96.4W             D. 25.9N 96.4W
       E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1530Z    E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 14,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK; CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES.


Looks like three-hourly fixes will continue all night and into tomorrow. Since it is late, I will let the nole comments slide.