Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[Ad Novoxium]

Might be of interest to people to see how the Burma state media has reported this.

http://www.mrtv3.net.mm/news/070508press.html

The wind when it was out to sea has been under-reported somewhat. They claim to have issued warnings of this from a full two days before a LPA even formed which seems rather odd. Even on there they are downplaying the damage.

There are rumours related to the loss and damage and people should not believe them. The State-owned media has released information and news. Relief and rehabilitation works are being carried out as a national duty. People are to inform the local authority if they find those who spread rumours.

Probably the best use of a picture I've ever seen.

[Chacor]

EU Aid Commissioner Louis Michel is heading for Burma to appeal for relief workers to have "free and unfettered" access to areas hit by the cyclone.

EU ministers backed away from a threat to impose aid, announcing instead that all help would be "entirely neutral, impartial and independent".

Earlier, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said "all possible means" were being considered.

Mr Michel's spokesman said he had received a visa from the Burmese junta.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7398313.stm

[tgenius]

I don't know if this has been posted but...
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/0 ... index.html

If that's so.. what kinda storm are they looking at, and what category would it be? Those people can't take another hit!

[Chacor]

There's a TCFA out right now. It's over land over the delta region, so when a TC does form it won't actually make landfall in Burma.

[RattleMan]

There's a TCFA out right now. It's over land over the delta region, so when a TC does form it won't actually make landfall in Burma.

Not anymore:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7N
95.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 94.4E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
FLARING DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THE 141320Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A POORLY DEFINED LLCC. RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER INDICATED SLP OF
1002 MB AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTERACTING WITH THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE WEAKENED LLCC AND LAND
INTERACTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 132030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

[senorpepr]

I don't know if this has been posted but...
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/0 ... index.html

If that's so.. what kinda storm are they looking at, and what category would it be? Those people can't take another hit!

For more information, check out our Invest 96B thread at: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=100967

[Chacor]

The UN has sharply increased its estimate of those severely affected by Burma's cyclone to 2.5m people.

The figure was revised up from the 1.5m previously thought to be in need, following the storm 12 days ago.

Since Cyclone Nargis struck, hardly any foreign aid workers have been allowed into Burma to hand out relief supplies.

Latest Burmese official figures put the death toll at almost 38,500 with 27,838 more missing.

But the Red Cross warned the actual figure could be as high as 128,000 dead.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he "regretted" the UN had spent more time arranging rather than delivering help, amid claims of stonewalling by the junta.

[Cyclenall]

On the news, they were saying; "This disturbance didn't actually form but it could have became a major cyclone yesterday." They honestly believe it would automatically become another category 4 Cyclone within 12 hours from being a cluster of thunderstorms and rain? This was a met saying this too...

[RL3AO]

Was this your local news Cyclenall, or Myanmar news?

[Cyclenall]

Was this your local news Cyclenall, or Myanmar news?

It was from the noon edition of Local 4 News of Detroit (WDIV).

[P.K.]

The UN has sharply increased its estimate of those severely affected by Burma's cyclone to 2.5m people.

The figure was revised up from the 1.5m previously thought to be in need, following the storm 12 days ago.

Since Cyclone Nargis struck, hardly any foreign aid workers have been allowed into Burma to hand out relief supplies.

As forecasters warned a new cyclone was brewing off the coast, latest Burmese official figures put the death toll at almost 38,500 with 27,838 more missing.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7401572.stm

[fasterdisaster]

The UN has sharply increased its estimate of those severely affected by Burma's cyclone to 2.5m people.

The figure was revised up from the 1.5m previously thought to be in need, following the storm 12 days ago.

Since Cyclone Nargis struck, hardly any foreign aid workers have been allowed into Burma to hand out relief supplies.

As forecasters warned a new cyclone was brewing off the coast, latest Burmese official figures put the death toll at almost 38,500 with 27,838 more missing.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7401572.stm

f

Gawd.

[HurricaneBill]

Damn them. That's all I can say.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/0 ... index.html

UN has CONFIRMED 38491 deaths

[HURAKAN]

Myanmar cyclone death toll soars above 43,000

"The government said Thursday that the official death toll from the May 2-3 cyclone had climbed by almost 5,000 to 43,318. The number of missing has remained at 27,838 for at least two days."

[Sanibel]

NY Times had a good article about coastal Myanmar villages swept away by a large surge containing waves. They say the cyclone hit at 155mph catgeory 4 intensity. Victims spoke of jet engine noise from the storm as well as not being able to hear someone shouting right next to them at the storm's height. One man spoke of reaching out for the very tops of trees as the surge swept him miles inland. I think we are probably talking higher than 12 feet from this description. Most of the houses lived in by these rural poor rice farmers were made of bamboo and just washed away under the surge. I think the death toll is higher than what is being reported from eyewitness accounts telling of few survivors from these coastal villages. The article says the undercount is due to something similar to the 2004 Tsunami where many bodies were washed out to sea. UN relief officials said the scattered corpses would have minimal affect on health of the survivors and that food, clean water and shelter would be the most critical. The malaria and dengue fever season is just starting.

Government rumors were circulating of a US invasion of the coast after locals reported seeing a large US disaster relief ship offshore.

[RL3AO]

78,000 dead (official)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7405260.stm

[HURAKAN]

& 56,000 missing. The real death toll is very likely far above 100,000. What a sad tragedy.

[Frank2]

That and more than 50,000 killed in the China earthquake (or almost 130,000 combined fatalities in just a few days time) - time to pray, folks...

Unfortunately, someone here in the office sent an e-mail today (one of those "send to everyone on your list" e-mails), complaining about chicken products imported from China to the U.S. - apparently he forgets that at least we have food to eat (right now, anyway), unlike the millions affected by both the hurricane and earthquake...

Some folks just don't realize how fortunate we are - a day or two after Hurricane Andrew, the middle school down the street from my former house had the only toilet "bowl" for about 500 people staying at that shelter - it amounted to two water-filled 55-gallon metal trash cans, marked "Mens" and "Womens" (many were shocked into realizing just how bad the situation was when that was shown on the local NBC station)...

Another reminder of how quickly things can change...

[Sanibel]

Times paraphrase: World Food Program thinks the annual harvest might be missed this year in southern Myanmar. CARE says delta farmers lost 149,000 water buffaloes that would be impossible to replace before plowing season. This will likely lead to the buying of "iron buffaloes" - which are small red $1000 tractors from China. Huge deliveries of rice seed are also needed that will most likely come from neighboring Thailand. Relief agencies say livestock like pigs, chickens, ducks, and fish fingerlings are needed to avoid a food cycle gap. UN and other relief agancies are having emergency sessions to plan how to bring delta farmers back to production. Unless they can get the displaced back to their farms another 50,000 tons of rice will be needed. Yangoon harbor has been cleared of sunken ships allowing more relief supplies to enter the country. Reports of many children found alone in devasted villages. They say the salt water intrusion will not affect the rice plants.