ATL SIXTEEN: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[MiamiensisWx]

On this date and time climatology does not agree w/ a sharp left turn into CA. The comment was not meant to be scientific fact, I should have been more specific, Ike did not follow climatology and spared SFL and it seems 99L is not following climatology on this date and time.

There is no climatology for individual dates; climatology is solely intended for periods (i.e. October 1-15, etc.), months, years, etc. Your comment doesn't make sense (to me), but to each his own...

There is only one climatological database, and it does not agree with your hypothesis that Florida is more favored than Central America.

Although Ike was climatologically unusual, WSW/SW turns are common in September, so Ike wasn't unusual from that point of view; it was unusual because of its Texas landfall after it attained high latitudes.

Edit: Did you base your assertion on the CLP model?

[Blown Away]

The NCEP has 99L over the Yucatan in 72 hours, which seems farther N than most of the models:

The NCEP has 99L in the BOC in 96 hours:

[Sanibel]

CLP is a climatological average which the chart clearly shows to be right at Florida.

[gatorcane]

I just can't see it hooking west into Central America....given we are in mid October now and the troughs are becoming more pronounced across North America.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I just can't see it hooking west into Central America....given we are in mid October now and the troughs are becoming more pronounced across North America.

I have to agree with that and thats why I thnk if this gets into the GOMEX then florida could very well be the target area

[Sanibel]

Careful. Those models see something to bend it that far west. They could adjust in 36 hours however and return more to climatology - but that is ALWAYS dependent on real time synoptics. I got burned by Marco assuming what you're assuming now.

[CourierPR]

What makes sense to me is that the NHC progs this system to move north or northwest in the short term.

[Blown Away]

On this date and time climatology does not agree w/ a sharp left turn into CA. The comment was not meant to be scientific fact, I should have been more specific, Ike did not follow climatology and spared SFL and it seems 99L is not following climatology on this date and time.

There is no climatology for individual dates; climatology is solely intended for periods (i.e. October 1-15, etc.), months, years, etc. Your comment doesn't make sense (to me), but to each his own...
There is only one climatological database, and it does not agree with your hypothesis that Florida is more favored than Central America.
Although Ike was climatologically unusual, WSW/SW turns are common in September, so Ike wasn't unusual from that point of view; it was unusual because of its Texas landfall after it attained high latitudes.
Edit: Did you base your assertion on the CLP model?

Most including I understand that there are (3) likely tracks for a system in this area during October (Into CA or N towards SFL or E of FL). The track the models depict now w/ the sharp left turn into CA is not "Likely" based on climatology. I was not implying that every storm that develops in the area of 99L moves towards SFL, but "Most Likely" it will. Your technical knowledge of weather is well respected by me and most on this board, but no offense you tend to over analyze.

[Nimbus]

Historically Tampa bay area has had its worst storms in October. The last big cat 4 to hit the area was in October 1921.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/fredwx ... amp=200607

Slow track over high heat content combined with a trough late in the forecast are always a bad setup for the west coast of Florida.

I was hoping the CONUS might get lucky and not have any more threats this season.

[Blown Away]

Sure does appear the circulation is moving slowly NNE. IMO, I think 99L is on the verge of becoming a TD.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami snippet, there is the big trough that may "pluck" 99L up from the NW Caribbean if 99L ends up in the NW Caribbean:

IN THE EXTENDED, MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE S FROM CANADA CARVING
OUT A STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING THE FIRST BONAFIDE FRONT THROUGH S FLA EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER IN THE TIMING. AS IS ALWAYS
THE CASE WITH THE FIRST FRONT OF THE SEASON, NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE
CHANGE EXPECTED BUT IT IS A SIGN THAT THE RAINY SEASON WILL BE
COMING TO A CLOSURE. ALSO, THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MOISTURE
INCREASE SO NO PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FCST EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

[Sanibel]

This expansion could be a "gear change". Watch for re-burst near center.

[Recurve]

I admit to not paying any attention, but did this go from "nothing" to high chance of development all at once?

[Sanibel]

Last night there was a clear rotation off Nicaragua.

[RattleMan]

I admit to not paying any attention, but did this go from "nothing" to high chance of development all at once?

2am - Nothing
8am - Nothing, Nothing then Orange (it was released three times)
2pm - Red

[Recurve]

I admit to not paying any attention, but did this go from "nothing" to high chance of development all at once?

2am - Nothing
8am - Nothing, Nothing then Orange (it was released three times)
2pm - Red

Thanks! I guess you can't turn your back on the tropics for six hours, much less half a day.

[Sanibel]

Folks, the thinning out has allowed the center to become more visible.


Edit: On second look the center is more like 14.25-81.4W

[AJC3]

NWS Miami snippet, there is the big trough that may "pluck" 99L up from the NW Caribbean if 99L ends up in the NW Caribbean:

IN THE EXTENDED, MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE S FROM CANADA CARVING
OUT A STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING THE FIRST BONAFIDE FRONT THROUGH S FLA EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER IN THE TIMING. AS IS ALWAYS
THE CASE WITH THE FIRST FRONT OF THE SEASON, NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE
CHANGE EXPECTED BUT IT IS A SIGN THAT THE RAINY SEASON WILL BE
COMING TO A CLOSURE. ALSO, THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MOISTURE
INCREASE SO NO PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FCST EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

Your assertion in untrue. The trough is forecast to amplify too far to the east to pull 99L northeastward toward FL. Note this part of the discussion:

"THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MOISTURE INCREASE SO NO PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FCST EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE."

That should raise a flag that there is going to be little if any deep layer moisture advection into FL and thus little south to southwest flow ahead of the passage of the next short wave trough and front. This is because the ridge collapses over FL rather than gets pushed eastward by the approaching late week trough. What is more likely to occur is that...assuming whatever 99L becomes does not die over the Yucatan, Honduras, or Guatemala, whatever form the system is in will be pushed east, and possibly even left behind by next weekend.

Unless there is a major change in the model guidance, the Florida threat with this system is minimal.

[ts_kakolina]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT03 KNGU 131900
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 82.5W TO 14.8N 85.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 82.5W IS CURRENTLY
ENCOUNTERING WEAK SHEAR OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND SEA WATER
TEMPERATURES OF 82 TO 85 F. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS A MORE CONDUCIVE AREA FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, CANCELLED, OR EXPIRE
BY 141900Z OCTOBER 2008.//

[ts_kakolina]