WPAC SINLAKU: Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Chacor]

WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.5N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.0N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 29.2N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.2N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 124.3E.
TYPHOON(TY) 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

[CrazyC83]

Could become a super typhoon at this rate.

[RattleMan]

Current estimate:

2008SEP10 200000 6.5 915.0/ +1.0 /127.0 6.5 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 10.95 -70.08 EYE 18 IR 20.77 -124.36 COMBO

JTWC should be going with 125kt at 10/2100z based on the NRL filenames.

[RattleMan]

Super typhoon forecast:

WTPN31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.4N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.3N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.2N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.1N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 26.0N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.0N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 30.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 124.3E.
TYPHOON(TY) 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND
TRACK SPEEDS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
TY 15W IS ENTERING A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WAS PRE-
VIOUSLY EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE TWO
RIDGES SUFFICIENTLY TO INDUCE STEADY POLEWARD MOVEMENT AND
RECURVATURE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST MODEL PACKAGE DEPICTS A
SHALLOWER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITH LESS IMPACT ON THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. A SECOND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS NOW EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW RECURVATURE AFTER
TAU 72. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL TREND, THE TIMING
OF RECURVATURE AND EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND
112100Z.REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[CrazyC83]

Forecasting a near-Cat 5...

[RattleMan]

JMA doesn't budge, and no longer forecasts 95kt:

WTPQ20 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 20.8N 124.4E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 22.2N 124.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 121800UTC 23.3N 123.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 131800UTC 24.4N 122.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[Squarethecircle]

Whatever the intensity, this storm has ridiculous satellite presentation.

[bob rulz]

What happened to Sinlaku's floater? It's just showing up as completely black on the SSD page...

[Aslkahuna]

Just a reminder, though it may not be the reason right now, satellite eclipse occurs around 14Z in WPAC

Steve

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

That image, though not as impressive as some, is most definitely and without a doubt a keeper.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Most agencies have now swung to the west. HKO, JMA, CWB now all forecasting landfall around Ilan in NE Taiwan around Sunday morning local time.

Incidently CWB have now issued warnings for the typhoon and will be updating every 3 hours. Not long before JMA have hourly updates due to proximity to Ryuku Islands.

[bob rulz]

Hourly updates? They do that in the West Pacific?

Another question: When is this recon flight forecast to head into Sinlaku?

:uarrow: That image, though not as impressive as some, is most definitely and without a doubt a keeper.

Agreed. Incredible shot.

[RL3AO]

Hourly updates? They do that in the West Pacific?

JMA does when its a threat to Japan.

[RattleMan]

JMA forecasting 95kt again, JTWC no longer forecasting 135kt:

WTPQ20 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 21.2N 124.6E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 120300UTC 22.4N 124.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 130000UTC 23.5N 122.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 140000UTC 24.8N 121.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =



--------------------------------------

WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 21.0N 124.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 124.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.8N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.7N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.6N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.5N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.4N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 28.3N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 30.4N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 124.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z
AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 21.5N 124.6E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 22.5N 124.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 130600UTC 23.5N 122.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 140600UTC 25.2N 121.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

CWB have dropped pressure down to 925hPa and upped winds to 51m/s, around 100kts if I'm not mistaken.

JMA still 90kts at 06z update and forecast this to smash NE tip of Taiwan on Sunday afternoon. I intend to be there.

[senorpepr]

WTJP31 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0813 SINLAKU (0813) 935 HPA
AT 21.6N 124.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 22.4N 124.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 23.2N 123.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 21.6N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 23.2N 123.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 130600UTC 23.5N 122.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 140600UTC 25.2N 121.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 22.0N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 23.5N 123.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 131200UTC 24.0N 122.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 141200UTC 25.6N 120.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =