ATL: IKE Discussion

[HURAKAN]

TCFA please!!

Now we may be needing it.

[captain east]

TCFA please!!

Now we may be needing it.

That looks really good for a tropical wave...

[Bane]

it definitely looks to be close to a depression.

[HURAKAN]

It even looks good in IR.

[KWT]

I actually don't think it looks as good as it did about 36hrs ago however I think it may not be all that far from being a depression either now but there is little to no convection down where any LLC is according to the Qscat.

[HURAKAN]

111
ABNT20 KNHC 311756
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES
NORTH OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE CHANGED LITTLE TODAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Dissecting the information:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 21N WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS CLEARLY
SHOWED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE N SEMICIRCLE. SHOWER AND TSTMS
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
COVERING THE AREA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 31.5W-34W. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.

[KWT]

I think any LLC that does try to form will more likely have to relocate further north near the deep convection, if it doesn't don't expect any quick formation.

[RL3AO]

I think any LLC that does try to form will more likely have to relocate further north near the deep convection, if it doesn't don't expect any quick formation.

It already has a clear LLC.

[KWT]

Ah yeah my bad RL3AO I've just looked at the loop and it looks like its got a tight LLC. I agree we do need a TCFA.

Convection still not at all impressive around that circulation however.

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC Best Track has a 1 mb lower pressure than this morning.

AL, 97, 2008083118, , BEST, 0, 160N, 340W, 30, 1006, DB

[KWT]

Looks like the LLC has taken something of a WSW dive just recently (last 2-3hrs from around 16.3N to 16.0N)

[HURAKAN]

If convection is able to increase by tomorrow morning like it did today, then we may have TD #9.

[KWT]

Yep I agree Hurakan we just need convection now and then we will be off to the races, the LLC looks evident enough for now.

[bob rulz]

TD by 5pm tomorrow?

[HURAKAN]

TD by 5pm tomorrow?

It will depend on the convection.

[BigA]

Seems to me that a new llc is forming/has formed near 18 north, near the bulk of the deeper convection. Looks apparent on last visible images of day.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 291300.GIF

In the loop the circulation is evident and you see the development of a great northern outflow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a depression to me. I expect Advisorys by 11pm.

[KWT]

Yeah I've got to admit it does look like a tropical depression but I wouldn't count on it, the NHC has been practically wanting systems on the verge of TS strength this year so far!