EPAC : Norbert: Tropical Depression - Discussion
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Norbert: Tropical Storm - Discussion
982
WTPZ45 KNHC 052041
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008
AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1252 UTC CONFIRMED THAT NORBERT'S
INTENSITY WAS NEAR 50 KT AT THAT TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT THAT VALUE SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. NORBERT IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE
GFDL AND HWRF FORECASTING NORBERT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE BUT IS STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED YIELDING AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 275/8. THE SHORT-TERM TRACK WILL BE GOVERNED BY
A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO TO THE
NORTH OF NORBERT. SINCE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST
THIS RIDGE TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE...A CONTINUED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. BY DAYS 4
AND 5...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED. SINCE THE
GUIDANCE HAS NOT DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...ONLY
SMALL CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THE
EXTENDED TIME RANGES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 14.4N 103.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 14.6N 104.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 14.9N 105.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 15.3N 106.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 15.9N 107.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 110.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 22.5N 114.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
WTPZ45 KNHC 052041
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008
AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1252 UTC CONFIRMED THAT NORBERT'S
INTENSITY WAS NEAR 50 KT AT THAT TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT THAT VALUE SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. NORBERT IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE
GFDL AND HWRF FORECASTING NORBERT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE BUT IS STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED YIELDING AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 275/8. THE SHORT-TERM TRACK WILL BE GOVERNED BY
A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO TO THE
NORTH OF NORBERT. SINCE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST
THIS RIDGE TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE...A CONTINUED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. BY DAYS 4
AND 5...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED. SINCE THE
GUIDANCE HAS NOT DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...ONLY
SMALL CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THE
EXTENDED TIME RANGES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 14.4N 103.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 14.6N 104.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 14.9N 105.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 15.3N 106.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 15.9N 107.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 110.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 22.5N 114.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Norbert: Tropical Storm - Discussion
770
WTPZ45 KNHC 060232
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WAXING AND WANING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
HOWEVER...3-HR AVERAGE ODT/ADT ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN T3.8 TO T3.9.
ALSO...THERE WAS A 05/2317Z AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED
ON A 05/2022Z AMSR OVERPASS...WHICH REVEALED A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL ALONG 14N LATITUDE. OTHER
THAN THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD RELOCATION...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY. FOR THE NEXT
96 HOURS...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER
THAT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND INTO THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST BY 120
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW NORBERT TO TURN
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING NORBERT FOR MANY
DAYS NOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT AROUND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OVER 28C AND WARMER SSTS DURING THIS TIME...THE MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS MOIST. THE RESULT
IS THAT ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY 1 OR 2 HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT IS MUCH LOWER
THAN THE HOT-TO-TROT HWRF MODEL...WHICH MAKES NORBERT A 119-KT
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS. IN CONTRAST...THE USUALLY ROBUST
GFDL MODEL BARELY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 70 KT IN 48 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 14.1N 103.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 14.3N 104.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 14.7N 105.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 15.1N 107.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 15.7N 108.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 17.3N 110.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 19.5N 112.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTPZ45 KNHC 060232
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WAXING AND WANING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
HOWEVER...3-HR AVERAGE ODT/ADT ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN T3.8 TO T3.9.
ALSO...THERE WAS A 05/2317Z AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED
ON A 05/2022Z AMSR OVERPASS...WHICH REVEALED A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL ALONG 14N LATITUDE. OTHER
THAN THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD RELOCATION...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY. FOR THE NEXT
96 HOURS...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER
THAT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND INTO THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST BY 120
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW NORBERT TO TURN
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING NORBERT FOR MANY
DAYS NOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT AROUND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OVER 28C AND WARMER SSTS DURING THIS TIME...THE MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS MOIST. THE RESULT
IS THAT ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY 1 OR 2 HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT IS MUCH LOWER
THAN THE HOT-TO-TROT HWRF MODEL...WHICH MAKES NORBERT A 119-KT
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS. IN CONTRAST...THE USUALLY ROBUST
GFDL MODEL BARELY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 70 KT IN 48 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 14.1N 103.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 14.3N 104.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 14.7N 105.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 15.1N 107.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 15.7N 108.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 17.3N 110.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 19.5N 112.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT NORBERT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED TO 60 KT AND NORBERT IS
NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE
ASSOCIATED REASONING ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE.
NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING AND ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE
CYCLONE TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY ONE INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HWRF REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...ALBEIT A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN BEFORE...AND SHOWS NORBERT BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE REMAINING INTENSITY MODELS ARE LOWER...AND A CONSENSUS OF THESE
MODELS IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BY DAYS 4 AND
5...NORBERT IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS. THEREFORE...SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN BEYOND 72
HOURS. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TRACK
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED...AT THESE
EXTENDED RANGES AND NORBERT COULD REACH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
SOONER OR LATER THAN SHOWN HERE.
NORBERT CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING OR 290/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
THEREAFTER...A LARGE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD
TURN IN 3-4 DAYS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
VARIOUS TRACK MODELS BEYOND 72 HOURS AND THE MODELS HAVE NOT
DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE GFS REMAINS THE
SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND NEVER GETS NORBERT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO RESPOND
TO THE TROUGH. CONVERSELY...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW NORBERT
ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND WEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 14.5N 105.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 14.7N 106.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 15.1N 107.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 15.7N 109.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 16.5N 110.4W 80 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 18.5N 112.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 21.0N 113.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 24.0N 112.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT NORBERT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED TO 60 KT AND NORBERT IS
NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE
ASSOCIATED REASONING ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE.
NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING AND ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE
CYCLONE TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY ONE INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HWRF REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...ALBEIT A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN BEFORE...AND SHOWS NORBERT BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE REMAINING INTENSITY MODELS ARE LOWER...AND A CONSENSUS OF THESE
MODELS IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BY DAYS 4 AND
5...NORBERT IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS. THEREFORE...SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN BEYOND 72
HOURS. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TRACK
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED...AT THESE
EXTENDED RANGES AND NORBERT COULD REACH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
SOONER OR LATER THAN SHOWN HERE.
NORBERT CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING OR 290/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
THEREAFTER...A LARGE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD
TURN IN 3-4 DAYS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
VARIOUS TRACK MODELS BEYOND 72 HOURS AND THE MODELS HAVE NOT
DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE GFS REMAINS THE
SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND NEVER GETS NORBERT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO RESPOND
TO THE TROUGH. CONVERSELY...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW NORBERT
ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND WEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 14.5N 105.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 14.7N 106.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 15.1N 107.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 15.7N 109.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 16.5N 110.4W 80 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 18.5N 112.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 21.0N 113.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 24.0N 112.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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EP, 15, 2008100700, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1056W, 65, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 60, 60, 1009, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100700, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1056W, 65, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 15, 1009, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100700, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1056W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100700, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1056W, 65, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 15, 1009, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100700, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1056W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Norbert: Hurricane - Discussion
TCMEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
0300 UTC TUE OCT 07 2008
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.6W
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.0N 106.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.4N 108.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W...INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 105.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 070247
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2008
NORBERT HAS BEEN PRODUCING A SOLID MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT T4.0...AND THE ADT
ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS ALSO NEAR T4.0. A COMPARISON OF 91 AND 37
GHZ CHANNELS FROM A 0003 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATES THAT THE
CIRCULATION MAY BE TILTED A LITTLE WESTWARD WITH HEIGHT DUE TO
EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN EYEWALL HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND THE CENTER. THEREFORE...NORBERT IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WITH 65-KT WINDS.
NORBERT HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 285/7. THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW NORBERT MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURNING NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO FROM DAY 3 THROUGH 5. MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR BECOMING THE
DOMINANT CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DOWNPLAYS THE
EXISTENCE OF NORBERT. SINCE THAT SOLUTION HAS BEEN WRONG FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THE GFS IS DISCOUNTED IN THIS FORECAST. THE HWRF HAS
ALSO BEEN DISCOUNTED SINCE IT SHOWS A WIDER AND FASTER SWING AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO WESTERN TEXAS BY DAY
5. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
OTHER MODELS...AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE PERIOD.
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
NORBERT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS...SO ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. THIS IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...SHIPS BEGINS TO WEAKEN NORBERT BY 72 HOURS
DUE TO THE IDIOSYNCRASIES OF THE GFS AND ITS OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC
DEVELOPMENT OF THE OTHER DISTURBANCE. DISREGARDING THAT
CONTRIBUTION IN THE SHIPS MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS
NORBERT AT 80 KT AT DAY 3. THEREAFTER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS NORBERT IS PICKED UP BY A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 14.7N 105.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 15.0N 106.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 15.4N 108.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 15.9N 109.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 21.5N 112.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W 60 KT...INLAND BAJA CALIFORNIA
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
0300 UTC TUE OCT 07 2008
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.6W
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.0N 106.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.4N 108.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W...INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 105.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 070247
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2008
NORBERT HAS BEEN PRODUCING A SOLID MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT T4.0...AND THE ADT
ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS ALSO NEAR T4.0. A COMPARISON OF 91 AND 37
GHZ CHANNELS FROM A 0003 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATES THAT THE
CIRCULATION MAY BE TILTED A LITTLE WESTWARD WITH HEIGHT DUE TO
EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN EYEWALL HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND THE CENTER. THEREFORE...NORBERT IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WITH 65-KT WINDS.
NORBERT HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 285/7. THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW NORBERT MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURNING NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO FROM DAY 3 THROUGH 5. MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR BECOMING THE
DOMINANT CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DOWNPLAYS THE
EXISTENCE OF NORBERT. SINCE THAT SOLUTION HAS BEEN WRONG FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THE GFS IS DISCOUNTED IN THIS FORECAST. THE HWRF HAS
ALSO BEEN DISCOUNTED SINCE IT SHOWS A WIDER AND FASTER SWING AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO WESTERN TEXAS BY DAY
5. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
OTHER MODELS...AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE PERIOD.
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
NORBERT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS...SO ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. THIS IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...SHIPS BEGINS TO WEAKEN NORBERT BY 72 HOURS
DUE TO THE IDIOSYNCRASIES OF THE GFS AND ITS OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC
DEVELOPMENT OF THE OTHER DISTURBANCE. DISREGARDING THAT
CONTRIBUTION IN THE SHIPS MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS
NORBERT AT 80 KT AT DAY 3. THEREAFTER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS NORBERT IS PICKED UP BY A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 14.7N 105.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 15.0N 106.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 15.4N 108.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 15.9N 109.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 21.5N 112.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W 60 KT...INLAND BAJA CALIFORNIA
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Norbert: Hurricane - Discussion
864
WTPZ45 KNHC 071434
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2008
NORBERT'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A VERY COLD-TOPPED CDO FEATURE
AND EVIDENCE OF BANDING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT WHICH IS BETWEEN DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. NORBERT SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATER ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS SO
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS. THE HWRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST
STRENGTHENING WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE BEING MUCH LOWER.
ONE OF THE INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE LATTER TWO STATISTICAL/
DYNAMICAL TECHNIQUES IS THE GFS VORTEX TENDENCY TERM...WHICH
COULD BE UNREALISTICALLY NEGATIVE SINCE THAT GLOBAL MODEL APPEARS
TO SPIN NORBERT DOWN TOO MUCH...AND SPIN UP A SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF
NORBERT TOO MUCH...IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/7.
OUR TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW NORBERT TURNING NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A ROBUST MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER NOT ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CARRY NORBERT OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FOR
EXAMPLE THE HIGHLY-REGARDED ECMWF MODEL DEPICTS THE TROUGH MISSING
NORBERT AND SHOWS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WANDERING OFF TO THE WEST
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOR
THIS ADVISORY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 15.3N 107.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 15.7N 108.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 16.3N 109.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 17.1N 111.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 112.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 20.5N 113.4W 80 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 23.5N 112.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 110.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTPZ45 KNHC 071434
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2008
NORBERT'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A VERY COLD-TOPPED CDO FEATURE
AND EVIDENCE OF BANDING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT WHICH IS BETWEEN DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. NORBERT SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATER ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS SO
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS. THE HWRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST
STRENGTHENING WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE BEING MUCH LOWER.
ONE OF THE INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE LATTER TWO STATISTICAL/
DYNAMICAL TECHNIQUES IS THE GFS VORTEX TENDENCY TERM...WHICH
COULD BE UNREALISTICALLY NEGATIVE SINCE THAT GLOBAL MODEL APPEARS
TO SPIN NORBERT DOWN TOO MUCH...AND SPIN UP A SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF
NORBERT TOO MUCH...IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/7.
OUR TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW NORBERT TURNING NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A ROBUST MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER NOT ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CARRY NORBERT OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FOR
EXAMPLE THE HIGHLY-REGARDED ECMWF MODEL DEPICTS THE TROUGH MISSING
NORBERT AND SHOWS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WANDERING OFF TO THE WEST
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOR
THIS ADVISORY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 15.3N 107.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 15.7N 108.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 16.3N 109.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 17.1N 111.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 112.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 20.5N 113.4W 80 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 23.5N 112.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 110.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Norbert: Hurricane - Discussion
Norbert continues to get stronger.
Best Track at 18:00 UTC:
EP, 15, 2008100718, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1077W, 75, 980, HU,
Best Track at 18:00 UTC:
EP, 15, 2008100718, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1077W, 75, 980, HU,
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC : Norbert: Hurricane - Discussion
553
WTPZ45 KNHC 072033
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2008
NORBERT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS SUGGESTED BY THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE HINTS OF AN EYE ON
VISIBLE IMAGES. AN SSMIS IMAGE FROM 1513 UTC SHOWED A BANDING-
TYPE...PARTIALLY-CLOSED...EYE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT
IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL-DEFINED OVER MOST OF THE
CIRCULATION. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE
SHOULD REMAIN IN A WARM WATER AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE NEAR FUTURE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
STRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. ALSO...THE SHIPS MODEL NOW SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION
THAN EARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY
BRINGS NORBERT TO CATEGORY TWO STATUS...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD... INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
INDUCE WEAKENING.
NORBERT HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/8. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME. IN 2-3 DAYS...NORBERT IS
PREDICTED TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AFTERWARDS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS 500 MB TROUGH
THAT DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AS WAS THE CASE ON
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...NOT ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BRING
NORBERT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. NOTABLY...THE
GFS WEAKENS NORBERT CONSIDERABLY SO THAT IT DOES NOT RESPOND TO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING...RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM BEING ENTRAINED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF A
STRENGTHENING CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF NORBERT. WHETHER OR NOT THE
EASTERN SYSTEM ENDS UP DEVELOPING...THE WEAKENING OF NORBERT
DEPICTED BY THE GFS SEEMS UNREALISTIC. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL
MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THIS REPRESENTS ONLY A
SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
IT IS PREMATURE TO SAY WHAT KIND OF IMPACT NORBERT MAY HAVE ON BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 15.2N 108.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 15.5N 109.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 16.1N 110.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 17.0N 112.1W 90 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 18.0N 113.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 21.0N 113.7W 85 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 24.5N 112.0W 75 KT...ON COAST
120HR VT 12/1800Z 28.0N 110.0W 60 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTPZ45 KNHC 072033
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2008
NORBERT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS SUGGESTED BY THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE HINTS OF AN EYE ON
VISIBLE IMAGES. AN SSMIS IMAGE FROM 1513 UTC SHOWED A BANDING-
TYPE...PARTIALLY-CLOSED...EYE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT
IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL-DEFINED OVER MOST OF THE
CIRCULATION. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE
SHOULD REMAIN IN A WARM WATER AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE NEAR FUTURE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
STRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. ALSO...THE SHIPS MODEL NOW SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION
THAN EARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY
BRINGS NORBERT TO CATEGORY TWO STATUS...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD... INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
INDUCE WEAKENING.
NORBERT HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/8. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME. IN 2-3 DAYS...NORBERT IS
PREDICTED TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AFTERWARDS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS 500 MB TROUGH
THAT DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AS WAS THE CASE ON
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...NOT ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BRING
NORBERT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. NOTABLY...THE
GFS WEAKENS NORBERT CONSIDERABLY SO THAT IT DOES NOT RESPOND TO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING...RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM BEING ENTRAINED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF A
STRENGTHENING CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF NORBERT. WHETHER OR NOT THE
EASTERN SYSTEM ENDS UP DEVELOPING...THE WEAKENING OF NORBERT
DEPICTED BY THE GFS SEEMS UNREALISTIC. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL
MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THIS REPRESENTS ONLY A
SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
IT IS PREMATURE TO SAY WHAT KIND OF IMPACT NORBERT MAY HAVE ON BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 15.2N 108.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 15.5N 109.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 16.1N 110.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 17.0N 112.1W 90 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 18.0N 113.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 21.0N 113.7W 85 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 24.5N 112.0W 75 KT...ON COAST
120HR VT 12/1800Z 28.0N 110.0W 60 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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