ATL INVEST 91L: Discussion

[gatorcane]

wobble wars have already begun it looks like

Hurakan, yeah probably an MLC.

[CourierPR]

Yep, Gatorcane. Get the coffee and Visine ready.

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC BEST TRACK for 91L.

AL, 91, 2008091118, , BEST, 0, 222N, 662W, 25, 1013, DB,

[CrazyC83]

Keep as a separate entity. From the NHC's analysis, this is a repeat of TD10/TD12 (Katrina).

[gatorcane]

I see a pretty vigorous MLC drifting NW:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[cycloneye]

Keep as a separate entity. From the NHC's analysis, this is a repeat of TD10/TD12 (Katrina).

Yes,if this develops into a Tropical Cyclone,it will be TD 11 and Tropical Storm Kyle.

[gatorcane]

Considering that yesterday there was nothing organized at all where 91L is at and now I see a well-defined MLC and some convection (albeit not deep yet)...91L has made some quick progress.

[HURAKAN]

Lets see if DMAX can help this system by tomorrow morning

[jinftl]

A "Bahama Bomber"

I wonder if Ike will exert any influence on 91L....as far as strength or direction of movement

Keep as a separate entity. From the NHC's analysis, this is a repeat of TD10/TD12 (Katrina).

[ronjon]

From NWS Tampa Bay AFD:

DURING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME ALIGNED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF...AND A COOL FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN GULF. INCREASING MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING BACK TOWARD 2") COMBINED WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH WILL HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BACK TOWARD CLIMO LEVELS

[gatorcane]

Check out 91L from afar on this wide atlantic visible........certainly looks to be suspicious if you ask me:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Not seeing Much here Gatorcane...Looking like it will pass thru FL as a Wave most likely..few Xtra Showers sunday...

[bob rulz]

Not seeing Much here Gatorcane...Looking like it will pass thru FL as a Wave most likely..few Xtra Showers sunday...

Way too early to say. There's still LOTS of water between it and Florida.

[HURAKAN]

Miami:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS SAT
NIGHT TO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. WL HOWEVER, INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP SAT THROUGH MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE WL STAY
CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH MOSTLY ISOLD TO LOW SCT POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PACKAGE.

Link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[gatorcane]

convection burst right near under the MLC in the last frame...looks like light to moderate shear from the SW

[Dean4Storms]

This needs a major shot of convection to have any chance.

[bob rulz]

This needs a major shot of convection to have any chance.

Agreed.

But again...lots of water.

[gatorcane]

This needs a major shot of convection to have any chance.

Agreed.

But again...lots of water.

I predict its going to get a big shot of convection probably sometime tonight toward DMIN that will he sheared some to the NE -- three key reasons:

-excellent moisture envelope
-vigorous MLC
-warm SSTs

Unfortunately this is not going poof folks.

[KWT]

This feels like De ja vu all over again with a big hurricane in the gulf and a system trying to form to its east. As long as this doesn't get too close to Ike I see no reason why this can't develop but thats a big if of course.

[CourierPR]

That piece of energy southeast of Puerto Rico appears to be headed to join 91L.