WPAC SINLAKU: Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

[RattleMan]

Rapid intensification:

WTPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.1N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.9N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.0N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 27.9N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 30.5N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 124.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 15W HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY AND HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED A 15-NM EYE EVIDENT IN ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON THE EYE, THERE IS VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 6-HOUR MOTION. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED BASED ON THE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SST
AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WITH A PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED
NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't look organized enough for 90 knots.

[Chacor]

Recon will say something. At least we have it now.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Sinlaku continues to crank up. The models have shifted west somewhat over the last 12 hours. JTWC mention this in their prognostic reasoning and it looks like they wrote this up over dinner.
The current JMA track concerns me. If this tracks a little further to the west and crawls at a snails pace past Taiwan the flooding could be really bad, especially in the east coast region.

WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 15W HAS INTENSIFIED 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE DYNAMIC MODELS
WERE IN FAIRLY FOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL WARNINGS BUT
ARE CURRENTLY IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 36 WITH A LARGE SPREAD.
B. TY 15W IS TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD UNDER THE STERING INFL-
UENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS ALSO BEING INFLUENCED SLIGHTLY BY A FINGER OF
THE STR POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS PROVIDING A
SLIGHT WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK. OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED STRONG
AND IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW WEST OF KYUSHU AND AN UPPER-LOW
NEAR 27N 150E. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES,
SUPPORTED BY A 092242Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
SO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND 6-HOUR MOTION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TRACK AND TRACK PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER,
INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 125 KNOTS FORECAST.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND TRACK ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE STR, CURRENTLY OVER THE OKINAWA REGION. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CHINA. THE 09/12Z
500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH IS A RELATIVELY DEEP,
DYNAMIC TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OVER EASTERN CHINA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE INTO
THE EAST CHINA SEA BY TAU 36, WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE STR NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCE THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN. TY 15W IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT SHIFT IN
SEVERAL MODELS WEST OF OKINAWA. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A SHIFT WEST OF OKINAWA WILL BE RE-EVALUATED
IN THE NEXT 2 WARNINGS IF THE MODEL TRACKERS BECOME MORE STABLE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
AND TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT INTERACST WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR TAU 96. THE EXTENDED
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 20.1N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 21.2N 124.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 120000UTC 22.5N 124.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 130000UTC 24.0N 124.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[Chacor]

[bob rulz]

I just realized that recon is going into this typhoon!

Just out of curiosity, is this just a one-off thing or are they going to start flying into these typhoons consistently again?

[fasterdisaster]

[Insert HurricaneGirl catchphrase here]

[Chacor]

I just realized that recon is going into this typhoon!

Just out of curiosity, is this just a one-off thing or are they going to start flying into these typhoons consistently again?

Part of a two-month nine-country research project.

[Ad Novoxium]

WHAT THE?!?!? Are we SURE this is only the strength roughly of a Cat 2?

[Typhoon Hunter]

80kts now from JMA, forecast max of 95kts in 48 hours. For those who haven't tracked Wpac typhoons for a while, 95kts from JMA is a very powerful storm!

Now I am due to fly to Taipei on Friday for work but now looks like like my plans could be disrupted by this. ECMWF 00z run is out and that is also another model which has shifted to the west, CMC, GFS and UKMET all forecast big hit/impact for Taiwan. ECMWF actually stalls this over the exact location I'm due to be filming on Sunday....

[bob rulz]

80kts now from JMA, forecast max of 95kts in 48 hours. For those who haven't tracked Wpac typhoons for a while, 95kts from JMA is a very powerful storm!

Isn't that because they use 10-minute average winds instead of 1-minute?

I never understood why the WMO standard is 10-minute winds. For example, 150mph winds over the course of 1 minute will certainly seem sustained to anyone who's caught in it!

I just realized that recon is going into this typhoon!

Just out of curiosity, is this just a one-off thing or are they going to start flying into these typhoons consistently again?

Part of a two-month nine-country research project.

Awesome. Is there anywhere that I can find details on this project?

[Chacor]

Yes, check the recon thread - there's a link.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I just realized that recon is going into this typhoon!

Just out of curiosity, is this just a one-off thing or are they going to start flying into these typhoons consistently again?

Part of a two-month nine-country research project.

You would think that Japan being the second biggest economy and China the third that one of them would own a fleet of recon planes. Cyclones effect them very much and I would think they would have some for year around use. Makes no sense.

[Ad Novoxium]

I...I...I...I don't know what to say.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Can one of the mods please update the active storms list - we have an exploding typhoon not far from land.

508
TPPN10 PGTW 100916

A. TYPHOON 15W (SINLAKU)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 20.5N

D. 124.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS (10/0830Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 10NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
CONVECTIVE RING YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. PT YIELDS A 6.5. MET YIELDS
AN UNREP 5.5. DBO PT.

UEHARA

[Chacor]

Raw T-number from CIMSS is T6.9.

[Typhoon Hunter]

The only way is up....

821
TPPN10 PGTW 101210

A. TYPHOON 15W (SINLAKU)

B. 10/1130Z

C. 20.6N

D. 124.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS (10/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR

05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 7NM WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
CONVECTIVE RING YIELDS A DT OF 7.5. PT YIELDS A 6.5. MET YIELDS
AN UNREP 5.5. DBO PT.

UEHARA

[apocalypt-flyer]

I'm sorry but I had a feeling this might be a big one.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 20.6N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 21.9N 124.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 121200UTC 23.0N 124.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 131200UTC 24.6N 124.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

Recon into Sinlaku tomorrow will be amazing to follow.