Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[hsvwx]

Status quo remains for the ECMWF, very interesting indeed! Do not think that the ridge will be aligned to direct Fay almost due westward from where she is now followed by the northwest motion into the Mobile area. While I will not completely discount this solution due to run to run consistencies, it looks like most models have hooked onto a solution similar to the NHC track, so kudos to those guys down in Miami. They have done a wonderful job in a very hard forecasting situation!

[Mississippi Storm Magnet]

Opal should remind us that a storm can go from almost dead to Cat 5 quickly. Heck, it was at 916 at one time just before landfall.

Although, I don't think Fay will do that. It hasn't even turned West yet. I guess we will find out.

[Thunder44]

The 12z Euro doesn't go down anywhere near 970mb. It has 986mb at 120hrs.

[KWT]

Still deeper then all the other models though Thunder...mind you nearly all the models has this over land for most of the time!

[Ivanhater]

The 12z Euro doesn't go down anywhere near 970mb. It has 986mb at 120hrs.

Hmm..I'm hearing from folks who have the higher resolution output, it is 970 at 120 hours

[hcane27]

Yep ... higher resolution puts it in 970 area ....

[N2Storms]

[quote="hcane27"]Yep ... higher resolution puts it in 970 area ....[/quote]


Looks like the Tallahassee NWS is starting to buy into a more southern track for Fay but they do not call for any major strengthening...



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[KWT]

Very interesting to see the ECM get this system that strong, must expect good conditions!

Exactly where does the ECM has this exiting in terms of latitude?

[bayoubebe]

Can someone post the latest spaghetti models please or show me the link to see them?

[AL Chili Pepper]

I'll believe the EURO when I see it. Fay has been over FL for what, over 24 hours? Right now it's looking rather ragged, and for it to cross FL again, travel due west, and then build into a cat 2 or 3 hurricane just seems a little farfetched. Time to go check out some WV loops and upper air charts.

[N2Storms]

[quote="AL Chili Pepper"]I'll believe the EURO when I see it. Fay has been over FL for what, over 24 hours? Right now it's looking rather ragged, and for it to cross FL again, travel due west, and then build into a cat 2 or 3 hurricane just seems a little farfetched. Time to go check out some WV loops and upper air charts.[/quote]



I agree and so do the folks at the NHC...given the difficulties and all the curve balls that Fay has thrown at them IMO the NHC has done a fantastic job with progging Fay and I believe they have a decent handle on her track and her intensity...

[hcane27]

http://www.hurricanealley.net/natl.html

[hcane27]

Very interesting to see the ECM get this system that strong, must expect good conditions!

Exactly where does the ECM has this exiting in terms of latitude?

approximately 28.9N / 82.7 W

[N2Storms]

[quote="hcane27"][quote="KWT"]Very interesting to see the ECM get this system that strong, must expect good conditions!

Exactly where does the ECM has this exiting in terms of latitude?[/quote]

approximately 28.9N / 82.7 W[/quote]


that means it would have to go due west from it's current position and although it could happen it doesn't seem likely since she is drifting Northward right now...

[Javlin]

Well if we use what was used before the upper cloud direction(WX57 noted upon exiting Cuba)they are pointing W now.Not that has to happen but I myself have use this tool only as a short term means of direction .

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[JonathanBelles]

Tampa Bay models are both south of the NHC track. VIPIR takes it off in Hernando County and TITAN takes it off much farther south in Manatee County.

[KWT]

In fact thats way south of the NHC, very close to the NHC track for that matter BUT it would probably have to go a touch south of west now.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Our local met gave a pretty good forecast as to why the models were trending more north now. He showed the high centered around TN/KY area although strong but elongated north to south instead of broad east to west like normal for this time of year. That will move whatever Fay is towards the west for a little while but as the narrow high slides east she will turn pretty quick to the nw. Now how accurate that is who knows as yesterday he was stressing about fay coming west towards SE LA from the gulf.

[Brent]

I'll believe the EURO when I see it. Fay has been over FL for what, over 24 hours? Right now it's looking rather ragged, and for it to cross FL again, travel due west, and then build into a cat 2 or 3 hurricane just seems a little farfetched. Time to go check out some WV loops and upper air charts.

I agree, I don't see this becoming a hurricane even if it got into the Gulf, which I'm not convinced of.

[jinftl]

Fay likes land....that is working in our favor....if we can ger her another 50 miles or so north, she will have to begin a motion with some degree of a southward motion (WSW at a minimum) in the next few days to end up in the GOM.

Very interesting to see the ECM get this system that strong, must expect good conditions!

Exactly where does the ECM has this exiting in terms of latitude?

approximately 28.9N / 82.7 W

that means it would have to go due west from it's current position and although it could happen it doesn't seem likely since she is drifting Northward right now...