Derek Ortt wrote:not sure how this can be kept as a TS
I don't undestand that myself, but if current trends hold up, I expect it will be upgraded later tonight.
Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Re:
I don't undestand that myself, but if current trends hold up, I expect it will be upgraded later tonight.
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Derek Ortt
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Re: Tropical Storm Boris in EPAC=8 PM PDT=60 kts
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/EPAC/02E.BORIS/tmi/tmi_85h/2degreeticks/thumb/Latest.html
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Re: Tropical Storm Boris in EPAC
One degree=60 miles, and the eye is around 8/10th of one degree across. So around 48-50 miles across. At 48 nmi across you have 1,809.5 mi^2 inside of this eye.. That is a pretty big eye!
1,809.5 mile^2*5,280 feet^2=9,554,160 feet^2.
I say this is about 70 knots.
Edit!
1,809.5 mile^2*5,280 feet^2=9,554,160 feet^2.
I say this is about 70 knots.
Edit!
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Boris in EPAC
It looks like an upgrade will come on the next advisory.
AXPZ20 KNHC 010401
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 01 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BORIS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 123.0W...OR ABOUT
1030 NM...1660 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AT 01/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THAT BORIS IS QUICKLY BECOMING
STRONGER AS NOTED BY ITS NOW CLEARLY EVIDENT EYE FEATURE...AND
VERY PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES WITH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN
LOOKING VERY SYMMETRICAL. THE CYCLONE MAY POSSIBLY ACHIEVE
HURRICANE STATUS SHORTLY...BUT NOT LAST TOO LONG AT THAT
INTENSITY BEFORE WEAKENING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AGAIN.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N123W TO
13N121W. THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS THE CYCLONE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU AFTERNOON
IN A FEW DAYS.
AXPZ20 KNHC 010401
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 01 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BORIS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 123.0W...OR ABOUT
1030 NM...1660 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AT 01/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THAT BORIS IS QUICKLY BECOMING
STRONGER AS NOTED BY ITS NOW CLEARLY EVIDENT EYE FEATURE...AND
VERY PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES WITH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN
LOOKING VERY SYMMETRICAL. THE CYCLONE MAY POSSIBLY ACHIEVE
HURRICANE STATUS SHORTLY...BUT NOT LAST TOO LONG AT THAT
INTENSITY BEFORE WEAKENING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AGAIN.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N123W TO
13N121W. THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS THE CYCLONE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU AFTERNOON
IN A FEW DAYS.
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Derek Ortt
Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:that microwave indicates one thing
Annular hurricane. Conditions are ideal for one with the marginal SST and no shear
There is a first time for everything, including a met saying the A word before anyone else!
The eye seems very large though on mircowave and round.It should be declared a hurricane though.
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Re: Tropical Storm Boris in EPAC
WHXX01 KMIA 010647
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0647 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080701 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 0600 080701 1800 080702 0600 080702 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 123.7W 14.8N 125.5W 15.0N 127.4W 15.3N 129.3W
BAMD 14.6N 123.7W 14.7N 125.9W 15.0N 127.9W 15.4N 129.5W
BAMM 14.6N 123.7W 14.5N 125.9W 14.4N 127.6W 14.7N 129.1W
LBAR 14.6N 123.7W 14.9N 126.1W 15.6N 128.6W 16.4N 131.1W
SHIP 65KTS 65KTS 65KTS 63KTS
DSHP 65KTS 65KTS 65KTS 63KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 0600 080704 0600 080705 0600 080706 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 131.4W 14.7N 134.9W 13.5N 138.7W 12.1N 143.6W
BAMD 16.0N 131.1W 17.3N 133.8W 17.3N 137.5W 16.6N 141.6W
BAMM 15.2N 130.0W 16.0N 131.3W 15.4N 133.3W 13.6N 136.6W
LBAR 17.5N 133.0W 19.8N 136.1W 21.3N 139.4W 21.1N 143.4W
SHIP 60KTS 49KTS 37KTS 31KTS
DSHP 60KTS 49KTS 37KTS 31KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 123.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 121.5W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 119.0W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 60NM
$$
NNNN
Hurricane Boris is finally here. As for annularity... can someone post the 06z ships run which includes the annular index? I'm at work and can't access the ATCF FTP.
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0647 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080701 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 0600 080701 1800 080702 0600 080702 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 123.7W 14.8N 125.5W 15.0N 127.4W 15.3N 129.3W
BAMD 14.6N 123.7W 14.7N 125.9W 15.0N 127.9W 15.4N 129.5W
BAMM 14.6N 123.7W 14.5N 125.9W 14.4N 127.6W 14.7N 129.1W
LBAR 14.6N 123.7W 14.9N 126.1W 15.6N 128.6W 16.4N 131.1W
SHIP 65KTS 65KTS 65KTS 63KTS
DSHP 65KTS 65KTS 65KTS 63KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 0600 080704 0600 080705 0600 080706 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 131.4W 14.7N 134.9W 13.5N 138.7W 12.1N 143.6W
BAMD 16.0N 131.1W 17.3N 133.8W 17.3N 137.5W 16.6N 141.6W
BAMM 15.2N 130.0W 16.0N 131.3W 15.4N 133.3W 13.6N 136.6W
LBAR 17.5N 133.0W 19.8N 136.1W 21.3N 139.4W 21.1N 143.4W
SHIP 60KTS 49KTS 37KTS 31KTS
DSHP 60KTS 49KTS 37KTS 31KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 123.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 121.5W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 119.0W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 60NM
$$
NNNN
Hurricane Boris is finally here. As for annularity... can someone post the 06z ships run which includes the annular index? I'm at work and can't access the ATCF FTP.
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We have the first hurricane in the eastern Pacific and western Hemisphere this year! 
(Unofficially but very likely). In addition, my 50% chance of becoming a hurricane was not out of place after all!
48 hours ago, the forecast was for Boris to be 30 knots at this time. Now it's 65 knots, a difference of 35 knots.
(Unofficially but very likely). In addition, my 50% chance of becoming a hurricane was not out of place after all!48 hours ago, the forecast was for Boris to be 30 knots at this time. Now it's 65 knots, a difference of 35 knots.
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Re: Tropical Storm Boris in EPAC
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 010817
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008
...BORIS STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...THE FIRST OF 2008 SEASON...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BORIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1095 MILES
...1765 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THE SYSTEM MAY MOVE MORE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AND A SLOW DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE DAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...14.6 N...124.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 010819
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008
NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE FEATURE OF
BORIS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE SHOWN AN EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH
BROKEN TO NORTH. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE EYE SUGGESTS THAT THE
FEATURE IS REAL...AND THAT BORIS HAS FINALLY ATTAINED HURRICANE
STRENGTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB/TAFB.
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR ACROSS
BORIS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SYSTEM IS VIRTUALLY
PARALLELING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...SUGGESTING THAT ANY WEAKENING OF
BORIS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD
ENTER AN ANNULAR STATE DUE TO THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...WHICH WOULD ALSO FAVOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN
THE SHORT-TERM. IN A COUPLE DAYS...THE SSTS SHOULD COOL A LITTLE
QUICKER AND HELP ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THIS
SOLUTION IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AND IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF HWRF/GFS/LGEM/SHIPS
GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/12... A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. BORIS
HAS BEEN IGNORING THE MODELS SUGGESTING A SLOWDOWN AND IS
CONTINUING A RELATIVELY STEADY FORWARD MOTION. OVERALL...THE
COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO SLOW WITH THE HURRICANE...PERHAPS
BECAUSE OF THE MODELS OVERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH
A DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE
GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER IS THAT A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY OR SO. ALL MODELS RESPOND BY
TURNING BORIS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SHOWING SOME DECELERATION.
THE RIDGE THEN RESTRENGTHENS BEYOND DAY 3...CAUSING A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF BORIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE
TREND OF SPEEDING THE SYSTEM UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES
ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NOT TOO FAR
AWAY FROM THE UKMET AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 14.6N 124.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.6N 125.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 14.7N 127.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 128.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 15.3N 129.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 131.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 15.0N 133.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 14.3N 136.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WTPZ32 KNHC 010817
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008
...BORIS STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...THE FIRST OF 2008 SEASON...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BORIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1095 MILES
...1765 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THE SYSTEM MAY MOVE MORE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AND A SLOW DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE DAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...14.6 N...124.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 010819
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008
NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE FEATURE OF
BORIS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE SHOWN AN EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH
BROKEN TO NORTH. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE EYE SUGGESTS THAT THE
FEATURE IS REAL...AND THAT BORIS HAS FINALLY ATTAINED HURRICANE
STRENGTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB/TAFB.
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR ACROSS
BORIS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SYSTEM IS VIRTUALLY
PARALLELING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...SUGGESTING THAT ANY WEAKENING OF
BORIS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD
ENTER AN ANNULAR STATE DUE TO THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...WHICH WOULD ALSO FAVOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN
THE SHORT-TERM. IN A COUPLE DAYS...THE SSTS SHOULD COOL A LITTLE
QUICKER AND HELP ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THIS
SOLUTION IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AND IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF HWRF/GFS/LGEM/SHIPS
GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/12... A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. BORIS
HAS BEEN IGNORING THE MODELS SUGGESTING A SLOWDOWN AND IS
CONTINUING A RELATIVELY STEADY FORWARD MOTION. OVERALL...THE
COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO SLOW WITH THE HURRICANE...PERHAPS
BECAUSE OF THE MODELS OVERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH
A DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE
GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER IS THAT A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY OR SO. ALL MODELS RESPOND BY
TURNING BORIS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SHOWING SOME DECELERATION.
THE RIDGE THEN RESTRENGTHENS BEYOND DAY 3...CAUSING A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF BORIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE
TREND OF SPEEDING THE SYSTEM UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES
ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NOT TOO FAR
AWAY FROM THE UKMET AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 14.6N 124.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.6N 125.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 14.7N 127.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 128.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 15.3N 129.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 131.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 15.0N 133.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 14.3N 136.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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wow very interesting vto see, does have a very large eye and small CDO present so it does look close to being annular if not already and if thats the case this system will probably sustain itself a lot longer then the forecast progs, remember Epsilon which took something close to Annular and how that took to die off...
Oh well there we go the first hurricane of the 2008 hurricane season!
Oh well there we go the first hurricane of the 2008 hurricane season!
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139333
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Hurricane Boris in EPAC
WHXX01 KMIA 011316
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1316 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080701 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 1200 080702 0000 080702 1200 080703 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 124.6W 15.0N 126.5W 15.5N 128.5W 15.8N 130.6W
BAMD 14.6N 124.6W 14.9N 126.8W 15.3N 128.7W 15.9N 130.5W
BAMM 14.6N 124.6W 14.9N 126.5W 15.2N 128.1W 15.9N 129.6W
LBAR 14.6N 124.6W 14.9N 126.8W 15.8N 129.1W 16.9N 131.2W
SHIP 65KTS 60KTS 57KTS 52KTS
DSHP 65KTS 60KTS 57KTS 52KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 1200 080704 1200 080705 1200 080706 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 132.5W 15.1N 135.2W 14.8N 137.9W 14.3N 142.8W
BAMD 16.6N 131.9W 17.9N 134.5W 17.9N 138.2W 16.9N 142.4W
BAMM 16.5N 130.7W 17.2N 132.8W 16.5N 135.9W 14.8N 139.9W
LBAR 18.0N 132.9W 19.9N 135.7W 20.5N 138.8W 19.3N 142.9W
SHIP 47KTS 33KTS 23KTS 19KTS
DSHP 47KTS 33KTS 23KTS 19KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 124.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 122.5W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 120.2W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 60NM
$$
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1316 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080701 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 1200 080702 0000 080702 1200 080703 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 124.6W 15.0N 126.5W 15.5N 128.5W 15.8N 130.6W
BAMD 14.6N 124.6W 14.9N 126.8W 15.3N 128.7W 15.9N 130.5W
BAMM 14.6N 124.6W 14.9N 126.5W 15.2N 128.1W 15.9N 129.6W
LBAR 14.6N 124.6W 14.9N 126.8W 15.8N 129.1W 16.9N 131.2W
SHIP 65KTS 60KTS 57KTS 52KTS
DSHP 65KTS 60KTS 57KTS 52KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 1200 080704 1200 080705 1200 080706 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 132.5W 15.1N 135.2W 14.8N 137.9W 14.3N 142.8W
BAMD 16.6N 131.9W 17.9N 134.5W 17.9N 138.2W 16.9N 142.4W
BAMM 16.5N 130.7W 17.2N 132.8W 16.5N 135.9W 14.8N 139.9W
LBAR 18.0N 132.9W 19.9N 135.7W 20.5N 138.8W 19.3N 142.9W
SHIP 47KTS 33KTS 23KTS 19KTS
DSHP 47KTS 33KTS 23KTS 19KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 124.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 122.5W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 120.2W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 60NM
$$
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brunota2003
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414
WTPZ22 KNHC 011450
TCMEP2
HURRICANE BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2008
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 125.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 125.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.6W
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.7N 126.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.0N 127.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 129.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 130.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 15.2N 134.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 14.8N 137.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 125.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTPZ22 KNHC 011450
TCMEP2
HURRICANE BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2008
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 125.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 125.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.6W
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.7N 126.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.0N 127.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 129.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 130.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 15.2N 134.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 14.8N 137.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 125.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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