South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)
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- HURAKAN
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Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)
16/1430 UTC 15.0S 165.8E T3.0/3.0 FUNA -- South Pacific Ocean
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN16 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 14:39:52 S Lon : 165:40:22 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 992.2mb/ 43.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.2 3.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -58.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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542
WWSO21 ABRF 161730
IDQ20015
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BULLETIN
1729 UTC 16 January 2008
Tropical Cyclone Funa
161730 UTC
15.0S 166.2E
Analysis based on: MTSAT IR
Latitude Detection Sum: 6
Longitude Detection Sum: 15
Dvorak analysis: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
Area of deep convection consolidating over centre in past 6 hours. Curved band
wrap 0.6 in CMG gives DT 3.5. MET also 3.5. Outflow good to the south, and may
be improving to the north.
Next bulletin available at 162330UTC
WHR BRISBANE
---------------------
684
TPPS10 PGTW 161811
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA)
B. 16/1730Z
C. 15.1S
D. 166.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (16/1730Z)
G. IR/EIR
38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .85 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT. PT AND MET AGREE.
WWSO21 ABRF 161730
IDQ20015
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BULLETIN
1729 UTC 16 January 2008
Tropical Cyclone Funa
161730 UTC
15.0S 166.2E
Analysis based on: MTSAT IR
Latitude Detection Sum: 6
Longitude Detection Sum: 15
Dvorak analysis: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
Area of deep convection consolidating over centre in past 6 hours. Curved band
wrap 0.6 in CMG gives DT 3.5. MET also 3.5. Outflow good to the south, and may
be improving to the north.
Next bulletin available at 162330UTC
WHR BRISBANE
---------------------
684
TPPS10 PGTW 161811
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA)
B. 16/1730Z
C. 15.1S
D. 166.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (16/1730Z)
G. IR/EIR
38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .85 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT. PT AND MET AGREE.
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- Crostorm
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Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN16 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 14:28:37 S Lon : 166:09:37 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 987.3mb/ 51.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.4 3.8
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.5mb
Center Temp : -72.4C Cloud Region Temp : -80.5C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN16 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 14:28:37 S Lon : 166:09:37 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 987.3mb/ 51.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.4 3.8
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.5mb
Center Temp : -72.4C Cloud Region Temp : -80.5C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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- Crostorm
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Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)
Funa Cat 2
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
STORM WARNING 019 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 16/1908 UTC 2008 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [978HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15
DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 166 DECIMAL 5 EAST AT 161800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.1 SOUTH 166.5 EAST AT 161800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.5S 168.7E AT 170600 UTC
AND NEAR 16.4S 170.3E AT 171800 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 018.
RE-ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
STORM WARNING 019 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 16/1908 UTC 2008 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [978HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15
DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 166 DECIMAL 5 EAST AT 161800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.1 SOUTH 166.5 EAST AT 161800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.5S 168.7E AT 170600 UTC
AND NEAR 16.4S 170.3E AT 171800 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 018.
RE-ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE.
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- P.K.
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- Contact:
Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)
90kts forecast within 48 hours.
WTPS11 NFFN 161800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 16/2021 UTC 2008 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [978HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 15.1S 166.5E AT
161800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, AND OVER
33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
ORGANISATION STEADILY INCREASING. CENTRE NOW UNDER DEEP AND COOLING
CONVECTION. SPIRAL BANDS CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND
LLCC. CYCLONE LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION AND MINIMAL SHEAR. SHEAR
[CIMSS] DECREASING OVER SYSTEM AND ALONG FORECAST TRACK.
EAST-SOUTHEAST STEERING INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVELS. DVORAK BASED ON 0.6
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL IN CMG, YIELDING A DT3.5. PAT=MET=3.5, THUS
T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION ON EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST TRACK.
FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 15.5S 168.7E MOV E 11KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 16.4S 170.3E MOV ESE
8KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 17.7S 171.3E MOV SE 8KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC NEAR 19.1S 172.0E MOV SSE 8KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC FUNA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 170230 UTC.
WTPS11 NFFN 161800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 16/2021 UTC 2008 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [978HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 15.1S 166.5E AT
161800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, AND OVER
33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
ORGANISATION STEADILY INCREASING. CENTRE NOW UNDER DEEP AND COOLING
CONVECTION. SPIRAL BANDS CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND
LLCC. CYCLONE LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION AND MINIMAL SHEAR. SHEAR
[CIMSS] DECREASING OVER SYSTEM AND ALONG FORECAST TRACK.
EAST-SOUTHEAST STEERING INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVELS. DVORAK BASED ON 0.6
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL IN CMG, YIELDING A DT3.5. PAT=MET=3.5, THUS
T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION ON EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST TRACK.
FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 15.5S 168.7E MOV E 11KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 16.4S 170.3E MOV ESE
8KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 17.7S 171.3E MOV SE 8KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC NEAR 19.1S 172.0E MOV SSE 8KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC FUNA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 170230 UTC.
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- Pedro Fernández
- Tropical Storm
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Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)
The sun is coming out and we can see satellite images in visible mode... Wow !
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- HURAKAN
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SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 14.8S 166.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 166.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.8S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.5S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.0S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 166.7E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.
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- Crostorm
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Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN16 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 14:45:31 S Lon : 166:37:29 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 986.8mb/ 53.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb
Center Temp : -55.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN16 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 14:45:31 S Lon : 166:37:29 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 986.8mb/ 53.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb
Center Temp : -55.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN16 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 15:11:54 S Lon : 167:27:56 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 985.8mb/ 55.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.8mb
Center Temp : -84.0C Cloud Region Temp : -79.4C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN16 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 15:11:54 S Lon : 167:27:56 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 985.8mb/ 55.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.8mb
Center Temp : -84.0C Cloud Region Temp : -79.4C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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- Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)
HURRICANE WARNING 020 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 17/0135 UTC 2008 UTC.
******** CORRECTED STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [970HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL 0
SOUTH 167 DECIMAL 9 EAST AT 170000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.0 SOUTH 167.9 EAST AT 170000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.5S 170.0E AT 171200 UTC
AND NEAR 16.7S 171.0E AT 180000 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 019.
******** CORRECTED STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [970HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL 0
SOUTH 167 DECIMAL 9 EAST AT 170000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.0 SOUTH 167.9 EAST AT 170000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.5S 170.0E AT 171200 UTC
AND NEAR 16.7S 171.0E AT 180000 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 019.
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- Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN17 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 14:44:54 S Lon : 167:37:37 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 985.3mb/ 57.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb
Center Temp : -50.3C Cloud Region Temp : -64.9C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.83 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN17 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 14:44:54 S Lon : 167:37:37 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 985.3mb/ 57.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb
Center Temp : -50.3C Cloud Region Temp : -64.9C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.83 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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WTPS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 169.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.3S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.2S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.8S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.7S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 169.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FUNA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
FIXES FROM NFFN, PGTW AND ABRF, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
65 KT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK VALUES OF 4.0 FROM PGTW AND NFFN.
ADDITIONALLY, AN SSMI 170540z MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A BANDING EYE WITH
AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO A WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 12P WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY NEAR TAU 24 BEFORE
ACCELERATING POLEWARD IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICTION THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. BY TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS ALIGNMENT WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WHICH
IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY STIPS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW
AND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO EVEN HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES.
THE STORM WILL REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND
180900Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 169.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.3S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.2S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.8S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.7S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 169.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FUNA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
FIXES FROM NFFN, PGTW AND ABRF, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
65 KT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK VALUES OF 4.0 FROM PGTW AND NFFN.
ADDITIONALLY, AN SSMI 170540z MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A BANDING EYE WITH
AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO A WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 12P WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY NEAR TAU 24 BEFORE
ACCELERATING POLEWARD IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICTION THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. BY TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS ALIGNMENT WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WHICH
IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY STIPS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW
AND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO EVEN HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES.
THE STORM WILL REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND
180900Z.//
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Special Advisory Number SEVEN for Vanuatu on TC FUNA ISSUED FROM RSMC
NADI
Jan 17/0809 UTC 2008 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [970HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 15.3S 169.5E AT
170600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING
AND MOVING EAST AT 12 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST
IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 55
KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE, AND OVER
33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
ORGANISATION DECREASED AS CYCLONE MOVED OVER SANTO. DEEP CONVECTION
ABOUT CENTRE ERUPTED PAST 3 HOURS, COOLING AND INCREASING SPATIALLY.
SYSTEM STILL LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION WITH MINIMAL SHEAR. CIMSS
MAITAINS DECREASING SHEAR OVER SYSTEM AND ALONG FORECAST TRACK.
EASTERLY STEERING INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. DVORAK BASED ON IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN GIVING A CF=3.0 AND
BF=0.50 YIELDING A DT=3.5 PAT=3.5 MET=4.0, THUS T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ON
EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST TRACK.
ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VANUATU IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER AWAY
FROM VANUATU. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL
AREAS STILL EXPECTED. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL VANUATU WATERS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.
FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 16.4S 171.0E MOV SE 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 17.5S 172.0E MOV SE
8KT WITH 70KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC NEAR 18.6S 172.7E MOV SSE 7KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC NEAR 19.9S 173.1E MOV SSE 7KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC FUNA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 171430 UTC.
VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
NADI
Jan 17/0809 UTC 2008 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [970HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 15.3S 169.5E AT
170600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING
AND MOVING EAST AT 12 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST
IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 55
KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE, AND OVER
33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
ORGANISATION DECREASED AS CYCLONE MOVED OVER SANTO. DEEP CONVECTION
ABOUT CENTRE ERUPTED PAST 3 HOURS, COOLING AND INCREASING SPATIALLY.
SYSTEM STILL LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION WITH MINIMAL SHEAR. CIMSS
MAITAINS DECREASING SHEAR OVER SYSTEM AND ALONG FORECAST TRACK.
EASTERLY STEERING INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. DVORAK BASED ON IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN GIVING A CF=3.0 AND
BF=0.50 YIELDING A DT=3.5 PAT=3.5 MET=4.0, THUS T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ON
EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST TRACK.
ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VANUATU IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER AWAY
FROM VANUATU. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL
AREAS STILL EXPECTED. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL VANUATU WATERS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.
FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 16.4S 171.0E MOV SE 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 17.5S 172.0E MOV SE
8KT WITH 70KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC NEAR 18.6S 172.7E MOV SSE 7KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC NEAR 19.9S 173.1E MOV SSE 7KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC FUNA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 171430 UTC.
VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
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