Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

[cycloneye]

359
WTPZ42 KNHC 302046
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

BORIS HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AND HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN EITHER. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BEEN ASYMMETRIC AND UNIMPRESSIVE MOST OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH IT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION DURING THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. BORIS COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY IN THE
NEAR TERM...12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.

BORIS IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 TO 13 KNOTS. IN GENERAL...MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A RIDGE NORTH OF BORIS STRONG ENOUGH TO
STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH SOME
MODELS MOVE BORIS EASTWARD AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...THE DISCREPANCY
AMONG TRACK MODELS IS LESS OBVIOUS. THIS CAN BE TRANSLATED INTO A
REDUCTION OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 14.7N 122.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.6N 123.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.5N 127.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 129.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 14.5N 130.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

A faint eye feature once again?

[HURAKAN]

Say hello to my little eye!

[KWT]

Yeah it looks like its trying to clear out another ragged eye feature once again, not as good looking as last night mind you and if that is a eye and not just a fluke shape of clouds then its very ragged indeed and poorly formed.

Edit---yep that looks like a eye on Hurakan's image, at least holding steady if not actually strengthening a little.

[HURAKAN]

It's an eye.

[HURAKAN]

Bill Read wants to talk about the eye but Boris doesn't seem to be liked by the NHC Staff.

[HURAKAN]

More defined.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 30 2008

TROPICAL STORM BORIS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 122.1W...OR ABOUT 980
NM...1575 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT 30/2100 UTC MOVING W AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 995 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER SYMMETRICAL WITH THE CENTER BECOMING
MORE DEFINED AS A SMALL CDO CORE STRUCTURE WITH THE COLDEST OF
THE CONVECTION CLOUD TOPS CONFINED TO ITS SE AN SW QUADRANTS.
THIS CONVECTION CONSISTS OF THE NUMEROUS STRONG TYPE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SE QUADRANT...AND SCATTERED STRONG TYPE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER ALSO IN THE SE QUADRANT...
AND WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW
QUADRANT. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE
CYCLONE DEPICTING BANDING FEATURES COILING TIGHTLY AROUND THE
CENTER WITH CDO TYPE FEATURE MENTIONED. THE CYCLONE MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A WINDOW OF 12-24 HOURS IN WHICH TO ACHIEVE HURRICANE
STATUS BEFORE WEAKENING TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AGAIN. THE
LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU AFTERNOON.



Boris very close to hurricane intensity, if not there already.

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclenall]

It has that hurricane look to it when it moves. The eye is just very broad and not clear. Outflow is improving I think on all sides. I think 60 knots right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah, looks to be close to hurricane strength again. Looks like that northly shear has weakened that was holding it back. Who knows if it when it come back, but this could easly get to hurricane before so.

[Category 5]

It's very possible that this could flirt with Hurricane intensity or even get there, but like the NHC says it's got a 12-24 hour window before it begins moving into cooler waters.

[Chacor]

EP, 02, 2008070100, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1225W, 60, 992, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 75, 75, 60, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BORIS, D,
EP, 02, 2008070100, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1225W, 60, 992, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 30, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BORIS, D,

Up to 60 kts/992 hPa.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now looks like a 65 knot hurricane!

[cycloneye]

Still a Tropical Storm.


WTPZ22 KNHC 010234
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.0W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.0W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 122.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.5N 124.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 127.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.5N 128.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 134.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 123.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

It looks like a hurricane. No doubt about it.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ42 KNHC 010239
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

AS IT DID AROUND THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...BORIS IS SHOWING EVIDENCE OF
AN EYE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE 65 AND 55
KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST UW/CIMSS ADT WAS 57 KT...WHILE A
CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE AT 21Z WAS 76 KT...INDICATING THAT BORIS HAS A
STRONG UPPER WARM CORE SIGNATURE. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS NOW
SHOWING EXCELLENT BANDING...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.

THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...BUT THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS NEAR 26C FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONSEQUENTLY...A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE HWRF NOW
MAINTAINS BORIS AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY
PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE AS RAPID A
DECLINE AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/11. THE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW THAN IT HAS BEEN...AS ONE BY ONE THE MODELS ARE GIVING UP ON A
TURN BACK TO THE EAST. IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR HOW STRONG THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN THREE OR FOUR DAYS...BUT AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY DOMINATE
THE STEERING. CONSEQUENTLY...A WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM
BAM...THE GFS...AND THE UKMET...AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 14.6N 123.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 14.5N 124.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.5N 127.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 14.5N 128.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 130.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 14.5N 134.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Derek Ortt]

not sure how this can be kept as a TS