ATL SIXTEEN: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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sargeabernathy
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Re: Re:

#121 Postby sargeabernathy » Tue Oct 14, 2008 8:50 am

vbhoutex wrote:
Chacor wrote:16L.SIXTEEN, vbhoutex...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html


It wasn't on the link he provided when I looked at it. I have now deleted my post since it is obvious it will be called shortly.


I was about to reply too ;)

It was on the main page originally. But the NRL has a really bad website that apparently gets messed up really easily while they are updating new information. I've been frustrated with both them and the NHC site for years (being a web master myself). However, I'll admit that NHC has gotten a lot better lately.

Don't worry, I wouldn't have posted it if I hadn't saw it :)
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: INVEST 99L: invest_RENUMBER_al992008_al162008.ren

#122 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 14, 2008 8:52 am

As noted on model thread, GFDL coarse grid revives 99L/16 in the East Pac after crossing CA, then drifts it NW towards Tehuanepec.

Not that that is all that likely, but a Caribbean cyclone that makes it to the Eastern Pacific, and still somehow finds a way to hit Florida, well, the board would be jumping.
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Re: INVEST 99L: invest_RENUMBER_al992008_al162008.ren

#123 Postby BZSTORM » Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:11 am

I'm new to posting so bear with me, what does this new numbering al992008_al162008.ren mean?

I was in Belize for Mitch which stalled off Belize for days getting HUGE, then dropped south missing us but dumping allot of rain - we were flooded for weeks. I was also here for Iris in Seine Bight which is about 3 miles North of Placencia. Bz can't take any major flooding right now as currently since TS Arthur which was more in Chetemal MX, dumped tons of rain causing flash floods in South & washed out the main bridge from South to North Belize and there is just a temp causeway, which everytime we get more than 3" rain is unpassable. So..... anyone in south is stuck if this storm really comes our way, we have south & inland south as options. So yes I'm watching this really closely because if the storm even comes in on the Punta Gorda BZ border with Guatemala its going to dump allot of rain over us in Placencia. If its now a depression, this storm if it sits of coast of BZ is going to grow water temps at 5ft are still over 85 degrees and this is all the way to the outer (barrier) reef, ther is extensive coral bleaching occuring which indicates surpface temps are well over 85 degrees.

It should be noted that at 8am central time the BZ weather department was still issuing the same alert for last night i.e. Low possibly developing in next day or 2 when the 8am on website said later to day depression and it already looked very organized to me at that time.
Off to get some supplies this morning before a watch is issued and its nigh on impossible to buy anything.
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#124 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:14 am

BZSTORM, welcome to S2K.

The renumbering simply means that the NHC is changing its designation of this disturbance from Invest 99L (Invest = Short for Area of Investigation, and the numbers run from 90 - 99) to Tropical Depression 16.
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Re: INVEST 99L: invest_RENUMBER_al992008_al162008.ren

#125 Postby tailgater » Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:21 am

57 Can you post a GARP chart for us, this one seems to have the upper level environment in it's favor but low level looks disorganized to me on visible sat. loops so far. Doesn't look good for you in Belize either way, sorry.
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#126 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:34 am

Looks like the center has consolidated a bit more offshore of Honduras looking at the latest loops. I judge it is about 75 miles offshore at least...
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Re: INVEST 99L: invest_RENUMBER_al992008_al162008.ren

#127 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:35 am

Three named systems in a week's time....amazing.


TD #16 has the potential to rapidly intensify under it's current environment as well.
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#128 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:37 am

Image

Impressive image of the Caribbean.
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Re: INVEST 99L: invest_RENUMBER_al992008_al162008.ren

#129 Postby MGC » Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:50 am

Not that often you see two tropical cyclones in the Caribbean Sea.......MGC
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#130 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:55 am

Image

Image
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#131 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:56 am

inland CA.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 16 - Discussion

#132 Postby boca » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:04 am

Well at least Florida most likely won't have to worry about TD16 since its forecasted to move into Central America.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 16 - Discussion

#133 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:09 am

Looking at the latest model runs it seems TD16 could loop around near the coast.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 16 - Discussion

#134 Postby alienstorm » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:13 am

Need less to say models could change and with a trough digging in this weekend and front expected to come through SOuth Florida then it may meander for a while.

Time will tell...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 16 - Discussion

#135 Postby boca » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:20 am

AJC3 posted last night about that trough which is supposed to swing a cold front thru Florida. He said that trough is 5 to 10 degrees to far east to effect the track to push td 16 north at that time.He was saying that td 16 is very unlikely to affect us here in Florida. Other than Fay we've been lucky.
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#136 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:22 am

boca, we have been extremely lucky. Fay saved our water crisis and no hurricane has impacted Florida. The only landfall was God send for us.

Back to TD 16:

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 16 - Discussion

#137 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:23 am

there's been alot of activity around Florida this season but somehow Florida is avoiding it, besides Fay of course.

This season is probably going to go down as a season that florida dodged several bullets.
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#138 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:27 am

Image

A lot of fuel available.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 16 - Discussion

#139 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:30 am

Storms tend to err N in this area, but this year is the year of the left tendency.

TD16 - I can't find an exact center but it appears to be turning the corner and headed west according to expectations. I believe it has enough water to strengthen. This is an odd Bay of Honduras cyclone.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 16 - Discussion

#140 Postby Category 5 » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:31 am

gatorcane wrote:there's been alot of activity around Florida this season but somehow Florida is avoiding it, besides Fay of course.

This season is probably going to go down as a season that florida dodged several bullets.


After the hell yous went through a few years ago I'd say that's a blessing.

This storm track wise is looking alot like Keith 2000, minus emerging into the GOM.
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