Ex Tropical Depression MELISSA- Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

HELLO MELISSA

ALL THREE BRAND NEW NAMES HAVE BEEN USED ALREADY

NO RECON???? j/k

[sargeabernathy]

HELLO MELISSA

ALL THREE BRAND NEW NAMES HAVE BEEN USED ALREADY

NO RECON???? j/k

Melissa may be new to the Atlantic, but not to tropical cyclones. It was on the West Pacific list at one point and used in 1994 for a fish storm. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Pacif ... on_Melissa.

However, for all purposes here: Yes you're right And, we won't start using the old never-before-used names until Pablo. Olga was used once before, and Noel twice.

Back to topic: The system looks nice for the moment. I'm wondering how well it'll do in the coming days. Though, I'm already hearing predictions that it will hit Spain. Ah the craziness.

Honestly though, it seems like a Karen carbon-copy. What with the shear attacking it ...

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt

[wxman57]

Melissa looked MUCH more impressive 24 hours ago. I agree it was a TS then, but not now. Oh well..

[cycloneye]

29/1145 UTC 15.0N 28.0W T2.0/2.0 MELISSA -- Atlantic Ocean


57, SSD is with what you are seeing.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 291221
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1221 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA (AL142007) 20070929 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070929 1200 070930 0000 070930 1200 071001 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 28.1W 16.4N 29.8W 17.6N 31.7W 19.1N 33.5W
BAMD 15.0N 28.1W 15.9N 28.8W 16.8N 29.6W 18.1N 30.4W
BAMM 15.0N 28.1W 15.8N 29.5W 16.6N 31.0W 17.7N 32.4W
LBAR 15.0N 28.1W 16.0N 28.8W 17.8N 29.8W 19.8N 30.5W
SHIP 35KTS 38KTS 39KTS 40KTS
DSHP 35KTS 38KTS 39KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071001 1200 071002 1200 071003 1200 071004 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.5N 34.8W 22.8N 36.7W 24.2N 36.0W 24.0N 33.1W
BAMD 19.6N 30.6W 22.6N 27.8W 24.7N 19.7W 28.8N 11.2W
BAMM 18.7N 33.7W 20.8N 35.7W 23.3N 34.0W 24.6N 25.2W
LBAR 22.1N 30.4W 25.8N 26.8W 27.9N 19.4W 29.6N 11.9W
SHIP 40KTS 33KTS 25KTS 26KTS
DSHP 40KTS 33KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 28.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 27.0W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 26.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM

Still is a Tropical Storm.

[chadtm80]

[canegrl04]

Wow! Yesterday Melissa was a fish by the models.Now shes headed toward the Carribean.The only way she can develope into a hurricane is to go more southward than Karen

[Evil Jeremy]

not gonna happen canegirl. The shear ahead is going to completly rip it apart.

[fci]

So the most likely path is to follow Karen wherever she goes????

Like following a condemended woman to the gallows.

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 290843
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. 0319Z MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY...BUT
SUBSEQUENT GOES IMAGES HINT THAT THE CONVECTION IS WRAPPING MORE
AROUND THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z
WERE A CONSENSUS 30 KT...BUT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER AND
PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH
35 KT MAXIMUM WINDS.

IT IS CLEAR THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BARELY MOVING...BUT THE EXACT
INITIAL MOTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESTIMATED TO BE 270/3. THE
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...LACKING A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH DUE TO A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. AS THAT LOW PROCEEDS
EASTWARD...ALL OF THE MODELS DEPICT SOME RIDGING TO GRADUALLY BUILD
BACK IN OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE
ON HOW THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL RESPOND. THE HWRF PROVIDES
THE NORTHERNMOST SOLUTION...TAKING THE CYCLONE IMMEDIATELY
NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE THE
SOUTHERN EXTREMES. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SHIFTED
AGAIN TO THE LEFT...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH CALLS
FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A RELATIVELY WEAK-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A BELT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES. THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...BUT THEN IT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS WHEN
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT
40 KT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...BUT
CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS IN THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT LIES AHEAD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 14.1N 27.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 14.4N 28.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 14.8N 30.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 15.5N 32.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 16.2N 34.8W 35 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 17.5N 38.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 19.0N 42.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 04/0600Z 21.0N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

The 5:00 a.m. discussion doesn't utilize the name "Melissa" anywhere in its meat!

[cycloneye]

918
WTNT44 KNHC 291437
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM FOR STORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THE
CENTER OF MELISSA HAS ALSO BECOME DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION DUE
TO WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR PATTERN IS COMMON AT THE
END OF SEPTEMBER NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE CLOUD PATTERN
STILL SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM STATUS GIVEN THE LARGE AND WELL-
DEFINED CIRCULATION AND THE TIGHT SURFACE CENTER. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MELISSA COULD KEEP
ITS STORM STATUS. THEREAFTER...BOTH SHEAR AND A COOL OCEAN WILL
LIKELY TAKE A TOLL ON MELISSA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF NOT EARLIER.

MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A MODEST SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND A LITTLE AND THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN KNOW MELISSA
IS THERE...AND IF THEY KNOW...THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN A DAY
OR TWO. THAT SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE MODEL SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 15.2N 28.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 15.6N 29.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 16.5N 31.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 17.6N 33.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 18.5N 35.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 39.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 03/1200Z 21.5N 42.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1200Z 23.5N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[artist]

wxman57- does this mean you now get to have Sun. off? I hope so!

[CrazyC83]

Sorry Melissa, but you have a short life ahead. I don't see you lasting nearly as long as Karen did in the high shear.

[Andrew92]

Actually Sandy, there is still Rebekah, which although not exactly brand-new, was a replacement name for Roxanne.

In any event, wow, after Dean and Felix, the deep tropics have been dead in terms of activity! Ingrid, Karen (although I do think she briefly may have been a hurricane), and now Melissa.

I expect Melissa to be a depression later today or tonight, and dissipate tomorrow. The only threat is some flooding in the Cape Verde Islands.

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

Actually Sandy, there is still Rebekah, which although not exactly brand-new, was a replacement name for Roxanne.

In any event, wow, after Dean and Felix, the deep tropics have been dead in terms of activity! Ingrid, Karen (although I do think she briefly may have been a hurricane), and now Melissa.

I expect Melissa to be a depression later today or tonight, and dissipate tomorrow. The only threat is some flooding in the Cape Verde Islands.

-Andrew92

Same here. A lot of sighs of relief despite the activity - since we were fortunate Humberto and Lorenzo didn't have the time to develop as they had a clear shot at becoming major.

Anyway, the deep tropical Atlantic is probably dead for the season. However, a west Caribbean/Gulf storm could easily become a major problem. The subtropical Atlantic could also produce something significant down the road as well (even if likely a fish)...

My October prediction is 4/2/1.

[jaxfladude]

Now been upgraded to Melissa, from the looks of things another weak TS in the offing though due to shear.

Always a good thing.....

[AnnularCane]

Good morning Melissa.

Anybody know where I can get a good satellite loop of Melissa, or is that not possible so far out?

[artist]

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... v=400,pp=0
try this link and pick which sector you want - I forget which one is the best for that area.