Invest 99W (WPAC) - Gone from NRL

[CrazyC83]

Added overnight to NRL. Looks a bit better than 98W.

[HURAKAN]

Looking interesting:



THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.2N
126.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION PULSING NEAR AN ELONGATED AND
POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO EVIDENT IN A
092054Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AS A BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
DOES NOT JOIN THE TROUGH AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, IT COULD DEVELOP AS A WARM CORE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
EVENTUALLY ATTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE OF THE DIS-
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND ANTICIPATED BARCLINIC DEVELOP-
MENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 25N 127E EAST SLOWLY.

[HURAKAN]

10/0833 UTC 24.5N 126.5E T2.0/2.0 99W -- West Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

10/1433 UTC 25.3N 128.0E T2.5/2.5 99W -- West Pacific Ocean



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 25N 127E ENE SLOWLY

[apocalypt-flyer]

Some nice cloud tops.

The whole thing appears to be drifting ever so slightly to E/ENE. Hopefully some fishing action for this one.

[HURAKAN]

It appears organized enough to be a named system. Surprisingly the JTWC doesn't think so.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Well, it's nothing new that JMA, Pagasa and JTWC aren't completely unisono in their opinions

*cue: watch JTWC upgrade this to a TS directly in 12/24 hours *

[RL3AO]

I'm very surprised the JTWC hasn't called this TD/TS 11W.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a tropical storm to me...

[P.K.]

30kt winds close to the centre now. Not forecast to become a TS within the next 24 hours however.

WWJP25 RJTD 101800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 25.6N 127.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 980 HPA
AT 57N 178E BERING SEA MOVING SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 142E 42N 143E
46N 150E 48N 154E 44N 180E 35N 180E 40N 160E 42N 156E 40N 150E 38N
142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 43N 146E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 16N 139E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 35N 122E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 52N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 33N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 135E TO 35N 138E 37N 139E 40N 143E 42N 145E
43N 146E 43N 150E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 180E TO 38N 178E 38N 175E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 38N 175E TO 38N 170E 39N 165E 41N 160E 42N
157E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0710 DANAS (0710) 994 HPA AT 40.4N 154.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Coredesat]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.4N
126.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 101726Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER AND WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE (101219Z)
SHOWED THIS LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROBLEMATIC IN THAT IS
INTERACTING WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS
UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HAMPERING
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY
DEVELOP AND SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATES DECREASING SLP (ABOUT 1003
MB AT KADENA AIR BASE) AND 15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW WITHIN 24
HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

Surprising, this, given that the JTWC gave it T2.0 and SAB has it as T2.5.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



"WAKE UP PEOPLE!"

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look like 40 knot tropical storm to me.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Definately, this is really getting its act together.

Especially the 129E, 26N centre is looking good.

[RL3AO]

Maybe we will get a TCFA soon...

[Coredesat]

Nope.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.5N
128.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
EAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 110136Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE
(101219Z) SHOWED THIS LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROBLEMATIC
IN THAT IT IS INTERACTING WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND IS UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HAMPERING
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE LLCC HAS ELONGATED AND
CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ON A MORE FRONTAL APPEARANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.

[HURAKAN]

In the Atlantic this would have been named already.

11/0833 UTC 26.4N 129.0E T2.5/2.5 99W -- West Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPAAT 26.5N 128.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.POSITION FAIR.MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 111800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TROPICAL STORM 0710 DANAS (0710) 1000 HPA
AT 40N 168E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
60N 166E 51N 170E 45N 180E 60N 180E 60N 166E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 26.7N 129.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 18.9N 138.1E SOUTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 43N 145E 49N 154E
43N 180E 32N 180E 32N 170E 38N 160E 39N 148E 43N 145E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 35N 120E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 40N 130E SE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 51N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 32N 160E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 127E TO 30N 131E 32N 134E 35N 137E 38N 147E
45N 156E 44N 162E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=