Typhoon Man-yi (04W)

[HurricaneBill]

Reports say Man-Yi has left 2 dead, 2 missing, and 68 injured in Japan.

[cycloneye]

One question is if that typhoon turns into a Supertyphoon how will we procced?

There's no such thing as a super typhoon anymore. Remember?

No,I was talking about future systems.

[HurricaneBill]

One question is if that typhoon turns into a Supertyphoon how will we procced?

There's no such thing as a super typhoon anymore. Remember?

No,I was talking about future systems.

JMA doesn't use the term, so there can't be any.

[WindRunner]

Yeah, it's just the JTWC that uses it any more, therefore it's not official and wouldn't effect a thread.

Besides, that would probably be handled the same way a hurricane would if it was upgraded to a major hurricane or a Cat 5 - nothing happens to the thread, save for the increase in people's excitement

[Derek Ortt]

what were the peak winds in Japan at the time of landfall? Was there anything that justified the intensity estimate of 85KT for 10 minute. If so, there could have been some serious damage to southern Japan

[Chacor]

what were the peak winds in Japan at the time of landfall? Was there anything that justified the intensity estimate of 85KT for 10 minute. If so, there could have been some serious damage to southern Japan

Lowest pressure recorded at Naha was 940 hPa, which would correspond fairly well with 85 kt 10-minutes. No direct obs from the ground at point of landfall that I know of.

[WindRunner]

what were the peak winds in Japan at the time of landfall? Was there anything that justified the intensity estimate of 85KT for 10 minute. If so, there could have been some serious damage to southern Japan

Mainland Japan still had the 953hPa readings for about 20 minutes, with 10kt winds. The obs are in the other thread (typhoon one) if you wish to see them.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0704 MAN-YI (0704)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 35.6N 145.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 36.9N 152.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 171800UTC 37.8N 157.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[HURAKAN]

Man-Yi gave July a strong touch!!!

[HurricaneBill]

Is Japan very surge-prone?

[Ptarmigan]

Lowest pressure recorded at Naha was 940 hPa, which would correspond fairly well with 85 kt 10-minutes. No direct obs from the ground at point of landfall that I know of.

940 hPa translates into around 105 to 113 kt 1 minute wind.

[Chacor]

Not dead just right yet from the JMA, although they are notorious for not declaring clearly-extratropical storms extratropical.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0704 MAN-YI (0704)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 35.1N 145.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 220NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 36.6N 152.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 180000UTC 37.7N 158.4E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[Chacor]

TS 0704 (MAN-YI)
Issued at 06:00 UTC, 16 July 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0704 MAN-YI (0704)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 34.9N 149.0E FAIR
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 220NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 36.3N 156.4E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[Chacor]

Still alive at 15Z although forecast to be extratropical by 18Z according to the ICAO advisory...

TS 0704 (MAN-YI)
Issued at 15:00 UTC, 16 July 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0704 MAN-YI (0704)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 35.7N 151.7E POOR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 38.0N 158.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[miamicanes177]

Derek lost but no post from him admitting it. Hmmmmmmm

[Derek Ortt]

As a scientist, I am waiting for best track.


If BT says this is a cat 3, then I was beyond wrong on this storm. But to say either way for a MARGINAL cat 3 storm, as assessed operationally, prior to all of the data anlaysis is inappropriate and leads to the type of confusion we say when Katrina was incorrectly estimated operationally as a cat 4 when it struck Louisiana

[Chacor]

LOW
Issued at 00:00 UTC, 17 July 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 0704 MAN-YI (0704)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 37N 153E
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 988HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST

FINALLY!

[Normandy]

Derek lost but no post from him admitting it. Hmmmmmmm

I wouldnt be celebrating so fast.
Remember that this passed over Okinawa (The eastern eyewall) as a CAT 4 and the island only recorded 65kt-70kt winds. Thats fairly low for a storm initialized at 125 kt.

I would bet BT drops this to a 2.

[alan1961]

Was just wondering after this lastest typhoon clipped japan whether it had any influence on triggering the latest earthquake that has hit the country..there have been theories on whether typhoons, especially the super typhoons have any effect on earthquake zones in these regions and all to often we get these events that do occur at the same time or is it just a coincidence.

http://blogs.nature.com/news/blog/2006/ ... thqua.html

[HURAKAN]

Pure coincidence. Hurricanes, or any other weather fenomenon for that matter, have no impact on Earth's seismic activity. Japan lies on the Ring of Fire, the region with the most active volcanoes and earthquake activity.