Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models=18z GFDL at page 4,More westward

#81 Postby windstorm99 » Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:31 pm

Watch out luis...

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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models

#82 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:33 pm

The GFDL runs with 91L are becoming comical. Maybe after 24hrs it could be plausible, but the first 24hrs are like a cartoon.
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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models=18z GFDL at page 4,More Westward

#83 Postby windstorm99 » Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:34 pm

Another view of the westward bound GFDL....

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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models=18z GFDL at page 4,More Westward

#84 Postby windstorm99 » Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:36 pm

If this were to become a TD soon your basically looking at the NHC 5 day track with the GFDL.Its there partner for life lol... :P
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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models=18z GFDL at page 4,More Westward

#85 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:39 pm

windstorm99 wrote:If this were to become a TD soon your basically looking at the NHC 5 day track with the GFDL.Its there partner for life lol... :P


Why would you give the GFDL run any credence with its initial motion? How on earth will the first 24hrs verify? Granted I can buy the motion after 24hrs, but seems a mute point with what it shows before.
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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models=18z GFDL at page 4,More Westward

#86 Postby windstorm99 » Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:42 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:If this were to become a TD soon your basically looking at the NHC 5 day track with the GFDL.Its there partner for life lol... :P


Why would you give the GFDL run any credence with its initial motion? How on earth will the first 24hrs verify? Granted I can buy the motion after 24hrs, but seems a mute point with what it shows before.


It was a joke lol...Right now as jeff masters stated a few hours ago that 91L should begin to feel a tug to the WNW-NW in the next day or two.Personally i dont see the magnet pulling this one into the caribbean as its done with the entire season lol.
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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models

#87 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:46 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:The GFDL runs with 91L are becoming comical. Maybe after 24hrs it could be plausible, but the first 24hrs are like a cartoon.



yep, where is the ole AE98 when you need it.......now that was comical.... :lol:
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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models=18z GFDL at page 4,More Westward

#88 Postby windstorm99 » Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:47 pm

18z GFDL is hinting at another strong ridge building back in over top of 91L after it moves through the weakness for a few days.
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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models

#89 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:49 pm

ROCK wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:The GFDL runs with 91L are becoming comical. Maybe after 24hrs it could be plausible, but the first 24hrs are like a cartoon.



yep, where is the ole AE98 when you need it.......now that was comical.... :lol:


Yeah, I thought about comparing the GFDL to good ole 98, but felt that was a slap in the face to my favorite model.. :ggreen:
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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models

#90 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2007 7:31 pm

HWRF 18z Animation

It ends with a 107 kt cat 3 cane.
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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models

#91 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 10, 2007 7:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:HWRF 18z Animation

It ends with a 107 kt cat 3 cane.


Looking for cat 3 :eek: :double: ....go fishing far away :spam:
Hope nothing near the carib residents Luis! :roll:
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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models

#92 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2007 7:54 pm

NNNN


889
WHXX01 KWBC 110050
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0050 UTC TUE SEP 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070911 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070911 0000 070911 1200 070912 0000 070912 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 41.5W 10.2N 43.2W 10.4N 44.8W 10.5N 46.3W
BAMD 9.8N 41.5W 10.1N 43.9W 10.2N 46.1W 10.2N 48.2W
BAMM 9.8N 41.5W 10.0N 43.7W 10.1N 45.6W 10.1N 47.5W
LBAR 9.8N 41.5W 10.1N 44.2W 10.7N 47.0W 11.1N 49.8W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070913 0000 070914 0000 070915 0000 070916 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 47.6W 11.5N 50.0W 11.6N 52.4W 12.0N 54.6W
BAMD 10.3N 50.3W 10.9N 54.2W 11.9N 57.0W 13.0N 59.4W
BAMM 10.2N 49.3W 10.7N 52.9W 11.2N 56.3W 11.9N 59.7W
LBAR 11.7N 52.5W 12.8N 57.1W 14.8N 60.1W 17.0N 62.1W
SHIP 38KTS 49KTS 60KTS 69KTS
DSHP 38KTS 49KTS 60KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 41.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 39.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 36.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models

#93 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:NNNN


889
WHXX01 KWBC 110050
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0050 UTC TUE SEP 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070911 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070911 0000 070911 1200 070912 0000 070912 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 41.5W 10.2N 43.2W 10.4N 44.8W 10.5N 46.3W
BAMD 9.8N 41.5W 10.1N 43.9W 10.2N 46.1W 10.2N 48.2W
BAMM 9.8N 41.5W 10.0N 43.7W 10.1N 45.6W 10.1N 47.5W
LBAR 9.8N 41.5W 10.1N 44.2W 10.7N 47.0W 11.1N 49.8W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070913 0000 070914 0000 070915 0000 070916 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 47.6W 11.5N 50.0W 11.6N 52.4W 12.0N 54.6W
BAMD 10.3N 50.3W 10.9N 54.2W 11.9N 57.0W 13.0N 59.4W
BAMM 10.2N 49.3W 10.7N 52.9W 11.2N 56.3W 11.9N 59.7W
LBAR 11.7N 52.5W 12.8N 57.1W 14.8N 60.1W 17.0N 62.1W
SHIP 38KTS 49KTS 60KTS 69KTS
DSHP 38KTS 49KTS 60KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 41.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 39.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 36.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



go west young man...go west!!! :lol:
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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models=00:00 UTC BAMS at page 5

#94 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:04 pm

Derek,the initial position of the 00z run is 9.8n.A mistake in iniciation right as it is around 11n.
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#95 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:08 pm

I know none of this is written in stone but it's always a little disconcerting seeing one of those tracks (namely BAMD) heading straight for your island! :eek:
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Derek Ortt

#96 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:10 pm

I think it's around 11N but should not have any impact on the eventual track as the overall system is moving nearly due west
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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models=00:00 UTC BAMS at page 5

#97 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:10 pm

the low is so broad right now...so maybe the BAM was covering all bases...looking at the vis maybe that is a MLC at 11N moving due west...I dont know...
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Re:

#98 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:30 pm

abajan wrote:I know none of this is written in stone but it's always a little disconcerting seeing one of those tracks (namely BAMD) heading straight for your island! :eek:

Absolutely Abajan...and Lbar near my island of Guadeloupe for the third time in the lastes three runs :eek: :roll: :double:
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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models

#99 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 10, 2007 9:25 pm

It seems the Islands will be dealing w/ Humberto in 3-4 days, any clue on where he goes after this?
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Re: 91L: Global & BAM Models

#100 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 10, 2007 9:31 pm

Blown_away wrote:It seems the Islands will be dealing w/ Humberto in 3-4 days, any clue on where he goes after this?


:roll: hope no but likeky if this trends continues :( :eek:
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