TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Gustywind]

Latest wv sat pic!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv.jpg
Nice enveloppe of moisture for 91L , lot of moisture ahead of the system, good looking wave in early stages of organization, with a huge size ton of convection trying to consolidate hours after hours... very promising for the next couple of days, something to monitor for sure for all

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This has a very large fetch of moisture and is likely to
develop rapidly over the next few days. The waters are
warm and we cannot rule out bigtime intensification. As for
path, it will be a trough versus ridge battle, as usual
for this time of year.

[Gustywind]

hi punkyg no i tkink that 91 L has lost lot of convection maybe due to diurnal cycle, but seems very weak
tonight compare to 92L. 92L continues to be impressive!
Since yesterday at the same time the systems shows the same troubles, it will be interresting to see what happens with it!

[punkyg]

Why do you say 92L looks impressive? it basically has no convection unless
your saying its looking good struture wise. 91L has way more convection, then 92L, but like i said its gaining back its convection.

[Gustywind]

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
"This has a very large fetch of moisture and is likely to
develop rapidly over the next few days. The waters are
warm and we cannot rule out bigtime intensification. As for
path, it will be a trough versus ridge battle, as usual
for this time of year".

Absolulety, CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS and amazing huge enveloppe for it, it can pass the hurdles without too much troubles all the the factors appears positive for a system crossing on the ocean in the 48-72h, after ....we will see hope for us in Leewards that it will go fishing quickly but since this morning i don't like the plots after hours and the fact that this system will not develop quicker...put us in in a suspicious position..but the path trend is another window of 91 L , time will keep watching it !


but i've got my hammer for the nofish lool:spam:

[Gustywind]

excuse me lol it's the opposite punkyg
mistake on the reply!

[Weatherfreak000]

I'd have to give 91L at least a 70% shot of becoming a TD.

Looking very interesting tonight.

[Gustywind]

Absolutely Weatherfreak000 this system is growing nicely in size with all that amazing moisture expanding since 20 to ahead near 50w!!! Looking very good!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TPC 8:05pm Discussion

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN CELLS FROM
9N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W...AND FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W
AND 38W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE AND IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N ALONG THE WAVE.
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

09/2345 UTC 9.8N 36.3W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

T numbers starting to go up for 91L from the too weak this afternoon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A LLC appears to be closing off on the northern part of the tropical wave near 10 north/36.5 west. It appears to be moving westward...Also convection is starting to form over it. Overall this is still broad, but I expect with half way low shear and outflow trying to get going. That this won't have any trouble or few getting going. I feel strongly as long as the eastly shear does not kill it, that this will develop.

[Derek Ortt]

there is some SAL... the "rooster tail" to the north and east is a dead giveaway

Thus, I am expecting a track between west and WNW, probably faster than the guidance indicates, with gradual development. Could very well have yet another Caribbean cyclone on our hands late in the week

[windstorm99]

there is some SAL... the "rooster tail" to the north and east is a dead giveaway

Thus, I am expecting a track between west and WNW, probably faster than the guidance indicates, with gradual development. Could very well have yet another Caribbean cyclone on our hands late in the week

Whats new...its been the story for the 2007 hurricane season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

The SAL is at least 5-8 degrees north of this...I feel that eastly or southeastly shear is whats effecting it at the moment. Also convection is starting to form over or near what I think could be the developing LLC.

I expect that the ridge is some what weaker. Also troughs/weaknesses are forming. So this may take a more northward track once into the central to western Caribbean. We will see, it is later in the year. Which favors it more.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
Am i seeing curve bands on the north side of 91L or is it jus my eyes.

[Derek Ortt]

it's SAL... I can tell just from the sat signature. Look at the rooster tail to the north

[Sanibel]

I see a vorticity similar to Felix. It should form just like Felix. Same latitude. We'll see what the models say about downrange synoptics.

[wxmann_91]

There's definitely some SAL to the north, but I think 91L is at a low enough latitude to avoid it... may become a problem for 92L if 92L lingers too long.

Downrange synoptics don't look too good. A large TUTT is expected to the east of Bermuda extending down to the Greater Antilles in about 4-5 days. That will shear any system in the (north)eastern Caribbean to death, most likely. If this system can develop strongly by then, it may be modify the environment somewhat, but otherwise, I don't see another big Caribbean system out of this UNLESS the TUTT manages to stay north enough.

[cheezyWXguy]

There's definitely some SAL to the north, but I think 91L is at a low enough latitude to avoid it... may become a problem for 92L if 92L lingers too long.

Downrange synoptics don't look too good. A large TUTT is expected to the east of Bermuda extending down to the Greater Antilles in about 4-5 days. That will shear any system in the (north)eastern Caribbean to death, most likely. If this system can develop strongly by then, it may be modify the environment somewhat, but otherwise, I don't see another big Caribbean system out of this UNLESS the TUTT manages to stay north enough.

Its a LONG way away from the ECarib. Maybe 4-5 days still, and that TUTT low will likely move out. This change fairly quickly in the tropics.
In terms of long term track, if this goes into the caribbean, it has a much better chance of getting into the GOM than Felix or Dean did. The high just isnt what it used to be, according to what ive been hearing. Though it could follow 92L up over the leewards and be an east coast threat. Only time will tell

[Derek Ortt]

5 day upper air forecasts in the tropics are not worth anything. Even initializations are highly suspect due to poor data coverage

Furthermore, this may be entering the Caribbean late on Thursday... is only about 1500 miles away