Typhoon Man-yi (04W)

[P.K.]

So chacor it's not a typhoon yet according to JMA which is the official word over that part of the world?

Have a look at this excellent website for various links for the different basins. http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/.

[cycloneye]

So chacor it's not a typhoon yet according to JMA which is the official word over that part of the world?

Have a look at this excellent website for various links for the different basins. http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/.

Bookmarked.

[WindRunner]

Upgraded, and about time.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 15.0N 135.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 250NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 19.2N 130.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 121800UTC 24.0N 128.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 131800UTC 29.4N 130.8E 290NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT

[cycloneye]

I understand that it has been upgraded so the thread is now open.

[Andrew92]

Luis, TWC also claimed Man-yi to be a typhoon in an update last night. In that same update, they said Man-yi had winds at 70 MPH. I do still admittedly watch TWC once in a while, but I take it with a grain of salt these days.

Anyway, it is a typhoon now, and I hope that this one weakens before it ever strikes land. This one is looking like nothing but bad news right now.

-Andrew92

[Dave C]

Looks like an eye may be forming to the west of the larger area of deep convection
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[cycloneye]

The Islands of Japan are in jeopardy with that track.Hopefully it deviates from the forecast track to the east.

[punkyg]

Guys woundn't it be cool if Man-yi was moving towards the dateline, then
all of us would be watching it guessing where it could go.

[Cyclenall]

EI? E-rapid Intensification? Wow, I guess that's just technology today . . . everything can be done electronically . . .

Or is is just a coincidence that E is right next to R on the keyboard?


And check out the locked typhoon thread below this one, though I seriously doubt any of that is from Monday either . . .

No, EI stands for "Explosive Intensification". It's not too common.

[WindRunner]

Oh, that works to. Kind of blows the joke, though . . .


Officially strengthened on the intermediate advisory . . . not too common, IIRC.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 15.6N 134.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 260NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 19.9N 130.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 121800UTC 24.0N 128.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 131800UTC 29.4N 130.8E 290NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT

[wxmann_91]

What joke?

Man-yi's outflow, which has enhanced the monsoonal trough, has the potential to dump some very heavy rains over the Philippines in the next 48 hr. Could be some major flooding issues there.

From IR image it's pretty clear that northerly shear has, and always will, be the factor that prevented this from becoming a STY, if it does not (and I highly doubt it will).

If Man-yi does become a STY though, then I will eat crow. The key is track. If it can thread the needle and travel in the area of very high heat content lodged between two areas of very low heat content, then maybe we can see a stronger TY than I expected. In 24 hr the 500mb ridge to the north will weaken and a poleward outflow channel should begin to open up.

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC, 11 July 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 16.0N 134.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 280NM

FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 20.0N 129.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 130000UTC 25.1N 128.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 140000UTC 29.9N 131.4E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT


Up to 75kts and 960 mbs.

[HurricaneRobert]

The eye's there now. It's a bit cloudy.

[windstorm99]

Eye begining to pop out on visible imagery.

[Coredesat]

Could be rapid intensification:

WTPQ30 RJTD 110000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS FAIR.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH-NORTHEAST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[Coredesat]

Sorry for the double post, but PAGASA has named it:

The tropical storm east of Visayas has intensified into typhoon as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)and was named "BEBENG".

At 2:00 a.m. today, Typhoon "Bebeng" was located based on satellite and surface data at 1,110 kms east northeast of Catanduanes (15.0°N, 135.2°E) with maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph. It is forecast to move northwest at 26 kph.

[windstorm99]

[WindRunner]

6.0? That wouldn't surprise me, though it would be quite impressive. Currently a 4.5 at 20z per SSD - though something seems to be a little weird with their website.


BTW, I don't think we need "in WPAC" in the title . . . partially because of the 04W deisgnator, partially because this is the WPAC forum . . .

[cycloneye]

BTW, I don't think we need "in WPAC" in the title . . . partially because of the 04W deisgnator, partially because this is the WPAC forum . . .

Done.Any more suggestions to improve this subforum,dont hesitate and bring them.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Here's the latest JMA 0300z update. Looks like it's gonna graze Okinawa and slam Amami Oshima. At the moment I don't think I'm gonna go after this one since it looks like it will pass to east of Okinawa and spare them the worst.

TY 0704 (MAN-YI)
Issued at 03:00 UTC, 11 July 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 16.6N 133.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 280NM

FORECAST
24HF 120300UTC 20.4N 129.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 130000UTC 25.1N 128.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 140000UTC 29.9N 131.4E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT