Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Evil Jeremy]

is the ships good shear wise?

[jlauderdal]

Our ol buddy Tedler runs a nice realtime list of weather obs on this site for se fla
http://www.myacc.net/~tedler64/weather/indexmml.html

might be interesting as this crosses....

that map is really cool. nice post.

here is a link to my weather station with webcam included. i currently see waves on the pool, lol.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KFLFORTL14

[artist]

I had noticed today that it is wonderfully cooler here and a fantastic steady breeze coming in from out of the east here in northern palm beach county. A lot less clouds than yesterday though. Yesterday afternoon we got very strong rains and then it rained off and on all evening. Lightning lit up the sky all night.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS...northern gulf coast on this run..

[Air Force Met]

But you know me. I'm a straight-shooter when it comes to this stuff. I don't cheer for or against Louisiana or Mississippi. I try to call what I see. I had substantial differences with Derek and AFM last night on future potential, as I wasn't and am still not buying "weak, sheared TD/TS" at the end. In fact I don't think that's a credible solution at all, but those guys get paid for what they do. I'm calling it a gentlemen's disagreement.

Uhhhhh....who said that? Certainly not me or Derek? Please don't mis-quote what we were saying. There is page after page of dialog about me clarifying those statements about future potential because someone else didn't read them right. The sheared TD/TS potential applied to the system as it developed off of the Florida coasts...not its potential once it reached the central or western GoM...which is what I said last night:

From last night-"And that is my feelings. The upper low kicks it off but it can't do anything facing 50 kts of shear. It will have to wait until it gets into the central or western GoM. There the upper levels should be good late week/weekend."

So...not sure what you are referring to about a "weak, sheared TD/TS" at the end....because I never said that.

[Stormcenter]

Before any one starts jumping on the Cat.2,3 or 4 bandwagon on invest 93L
please take a look at the dry air it will be dealing with for a good while. I think there
is a decent chance for a TS or maybe a sheared cat.1 hurricane but anything else
would be a stretch unless you somehow get rid of this dry air to its north. I'm
not trying to be a party pooper to those looking for more out of this sytem. Just
my 2 cents.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Air Force Met]

Steve wrote:

I wasn't and am still not buying "weak, sheared TD/TS" at the end.

In defense to Derek and AFM; their end game was not a weak or sheared TD/TS in the end zone. They were thinking that it would be a sheared system in the eastern gulf. Once in the central gulf, conditions would improve.

Thanks. I'm not sure what conversation Steve is referring to...because I have never said this would remain a weak, sheared system...just that it would be a weak, sheared system before it could make landfall over Florida...and I said that because some were referring to the potential explosive deepening Humberto displayed and that this could do the same thing before making landfall in Florida (ie be a hurricane). So...I said...no...Florida would only get a weak, sheared system...but that dynamics improve later over the central GoM.

[artist]

air force met - what do you think the winds range will be for the SFl. peninsula near the east coast? TIA!

[CrazyC83]

Before any one starts jumping on the Cat.2,3 or 4 bandwagon on invest 93L
please take a look at the dry air it will be dealing with for a good while. I think there
is a decent chance for a TS or maybe a sheared cat.1 hurricane but anything else
would be a stretch unless you somehow get rid of this dry air to its north. I'm
not trying to be a party pooper to those looking for more out of this sytem. Just
my 2 cents.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

I think you're right unless it dips south into the Loop Current, in which case all bets are off...

[bucman1]

Question:How soon do you exspect 93L to start to intensify when it exists the west coast and will the west Coast feek tropical storm winds(rapid intensification?)

[Steve]

>>In defense to Derek and AFM; their end game was not a weak or sheared TD/TS in the end zone. They were thinking that it would be a sheared system in the eastern gulf. Once in the central gulf, conditions would improve.

Yeah, I saw that. They said that we'd have to wait until the Central Gulf. And I agreed with that. But the endgame was downplayed. Derek just noted above that he's going to be paying more attention now. I'll try to get the cut and pastes to show what I was differing with.

AFM (8:06pm): While water temps are favorable...the upper level winds will not be favorable for anything but a sheared system. The upper low that is going to dig down into the eastern GoM is going to keep anything that tries to form in-check trough late week....

AMF (8:14pm): Yes...N Fl and SE GA in an elongated trof...part of the longwave...continuing to dig southward where it will cutoff over the next day or so and be a shear monster for the whole week.

DO (8:17pm): Right now, as I stated in my evening PNJ blog post, a TS at most is all I can see from this...

AFM (8:21pm): I agree and second this. I would add: A highly sheared...baroclinically enhanced type tropical system at that (in other words...the initial deepening will be due to baroclinic type forcing...not pure tropical deepening).

Edit: Let me add - If it develops I think it will be a TS due to gradient alone...because of the high to its north. It won't have to work too hard.

There were some caveats in future posts, but I just disagreed with how we got from A to B. Ultimately, I agreed with them after storm got to Central Gulf, but I think they underplayed potential after that, and that is just my opinion. As noted by AFM, he deals in facts and charts that he has available to him. It's not his fault or anyone's if the progs end up being wrong. That's what we have based on sampling and the models. I don't pretend to hang with those guys, because they are 2 of the Top 5 or 6 posters on the site. But I said why I disagreed with their thoughts last night, and I still do. But I'm not sold on anything. Evolution is going a bit differently than I thought it would. They had the origins right. So we're just going to have to see if my idea of a pattern reversal from the upper trough stretched into the Gulf of Mexico is right or if it hangs around and I was wrong.



Steve

[fci]

One last thought...there was some questioning about lack of notice and such during the storm last week in the gulf. I would think that it could have played a factor in this being declared an invest now....very close to shore and a large population area with large flooding potential...now bringing on Max Mayfield for an invest is a little like using a sledgehammer on a 1penny nail I will suspect that it will happen down here in sofla...grin!

Now to get that precip over over Lake O before it trucks out to Tampa Bay and the gulf.....come on baby...get nice and juicey and slow.....and fill that lake!!!!!!!!!

I'm with you!!
My hopes to those in the GOM that this doesn't develop too much by the time it gets to you.
However, being here in the drought zone of SE FL; I hope it RAINS and RAINS and RAINS some more.
FILL LAKE O!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ivanhater]

GFDL just south of New Orleans landfall

[Kludge]

[quote="Ivanhater"]12z GFS...northern gulf coast on this run..

Not that I agree or disagree with this run... but I would imagine that the next run (or more importantly the 0z run) might be more interesting, since it will likely have it initialized as a closed low with a LLC.

As an aside...I'm always puzzled by how the GFS and others can predict motion without seeming to have an accurate grasp on the intensity. It seems a strong storm's movement could vary greatly from a weak low.

[flwxwatcher]

Conditions at SPGF1 as of
(1:00 pm EDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 30 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 34 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.94 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )

[cpdaman]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes

run this loop on high speed and look at the consolidating taking place 90 miles east of fort lauderdale


looks like a N' easter to me


AFM do you think this could stall out for another day or so

and steve i believe AFM was referring to the threat this would have on FL(not post FL) and derek was talking about the storm's entire life cycle

[Weatherboy1]

Settlement Point now reporting winds up to 31 knots (gusts 34) FYI ...

1:00 pm NNE ( 20 deg ) 31 kts
12:50 pm NNE ( 20 deg ) 30 kts
12:40 pm NNE ( 16 deg ) 31 kts
12:30 pm N ( 3 deg ) 30 kts
12:20 pm N ( 0 deg ) 28 kts
12:10 pm N ( 2 deg ) 26 kts

[Ivanhater]

[Ed Mahmoud]

HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion prefers GFS, due to better initialization that other models.



Relevant section:

POSSIBLE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL LOW CROSSING FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...
THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEN IN THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THE CANADIAN TRACKS THE SYSTEM UP THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA BEFORE HOOKING IT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST LIKE
TAMMY FROM 2005. THE GFS TAKES IT THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHILE
THE NAM TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A COMPROMISE TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...DESPITE ITS POOR INITIALIZATION. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
SOUTHERLY SINCE IT FORMS THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WHERE IT
IS TRYING TO FORM NOW. THE UKMET IS WELL TO THE SOUTH AS WELL.
TRENDS ARE MIXED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT FOR THIS TYPE OF A CYCLONE
BEING STEERED BY A WARM CORE RIDGE... THE MODEL WITH THE BEST
INITIALIZATION IS MORE LIKELY TO BE CORRECT. THIS RULES OUT THE
UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WILL FAVOR A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE GFS
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE 72 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION IS ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NON-ETA MEMBERS OF THE 09Z COMBINED SREF MEMBERS.
THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH OPC. SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST/DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEMS TRACK FROM 72
HOURS ONWARD...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH NHC.

[Steve]

AFM,

Maybe I read what you were saying wrong in that discussion with EWG and others. I said why I disagreed on the other thread and provided a couple of examples about behavior of highs and splitting troughs so far this season. I came away thinking that you were underplaying the end game and potential because of the massive shear zone that was progged to be there. If your intent was not to downplay the potential, then I apologize. That's what I got from both you and Derek last night though it may have been just part of an aside to the discussion you were having.

I don't have any call except to say we have seen intensifying tropical storms in the Western Gulf close to landfall, and in this case, we'd probably have some additional time if my idea of a less hostile environment than you were presenting were right.

No harm, no foul of course.

Steve