TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Sanibel]

This is just like the Felix thread with people missing that obvious vorticity in the prime formational ITCZ.

[perk]

I agree with Derek, 91L is definitely more impressive than 92L.

[CrazyC83]

Could we have TD8 soon? Although I can't seem to get a good indication on QuikSCAT as it missed the system...

[RL3AO]

Could we have TD8 soon? Although I can't seem to get a good indication on QuikSCAT as it missed the system...

What is soon? 24-48 hours?

[CrazyC83]

Could we have TD8 soon? Although I can't seem to get a good indication on QuikSCAT as it missed the system...

What is soon? 24-48 hours?

Within 36 hours.

[fasterdisaster]

I agree with Derek, 91L is definitely more impressive than 92L.

On IR maybe, but on WV and Visible 92L without doubt looks better than 91L. If fact on visible 91L looks nothing more than like some shallow thunderstorms. Since IR is usually considered the least accurate as to judging organization, and visible is much better, my personal opinion is 92L looks better, but 91L doesn't look half-bad either.

[cycloneye]

Could we have TD8 soon? Although I can't seem to get a good indication on QuikSCAT as it missed the system...

It has all going for it.Upper high building over it,Outflow being established,Plenty of moist envelope,convection over the mid level circulation,A LLC may form very soon,maybe is already there.Lets see if the next pass catches it.Some dry air to the north but I dont think is a big problem.If it develops,it will be a Gilbert,Luis,Floyd type meaning big system in area coverage.

[RL3AO]

I've been watching football and not sats all day. Do you guys think a TCFA could be issued this evening, or not yet?

[Hello32020]

I've been watching football and not sats all day. Do you guys think a TCFA could be issued this evening, or not yet?

Possibly, I've been watching football myself

[KWT]

While the convection isn't all that deep thats probably more a reflection of fairly modest heat content, i'd be mor einterested in the rotation it has which puts it a step closer then 92L. i didn't know earlier that 91L actulaly has an LLC but upon Derek saying it i do notice a rather broad LLC is in place, while 92L has a decent MLC but nothing below.

[punkyg]

can some on point out where the center of 91L is.

[Gustywind]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[MiamiensisWx]

Some additional thoughts:

There is a slim chance, but an entryway into the E Caribbean may become more plausible over the next few days. The strength of the central Atlantic ridge and 91L's development will play a key role. The low-level easterlies (i.e. strength of the Atlantic ridge) have been repeatedly underestimated. Although 91L is moving slightly slower than the pre-Dean and Felix disturbances, the GFS ensembles, Euro, and GFS operational suite build a stronger low-level ridge westward. The GFS 500 mbar progged heights (~48 hours here) indicate a building 588 dm ridge off the Southeast coast, in addition to a more conducive low-level environment (reduced shear and greater anticyclonic support) over the Caribbean and W Atlantic. The Euro shows a similar trend, too.

GFS ensembles at ~48 hours:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f48.html

The future path largely depends on the C Atlantic trough. Currently, most model guidance weakens the trough, which would allow the mid-level (H8-H6) weakness to fill in as the expanding subtropical ridge moves W. Since 91L appears to be slowly organizing, it could largely avoid the weakness, with the exception of a temporary WNW to NW motion. I can see a 92L-type path or a Caribbean cruiser at this point, IMO. Regardless, I think the environment will become much more favorable near ~50W, and it stands a better chance of a slower motion when it interacts with 92L, which could partially ventilate the system.

[KWT]

Interesting thoughts MiamiensisWx. The models mainly life 91L between 54-120hrs after that it'll probably be sent back westward underneath a high pressure cell that comes off from the states. The key will be how much lattiude if any the wave picks up between those hours mentioned above. After that it should pick up only small amounts of latitude till around 75-80W where a weak long term weakness is trying to establish itself.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE A FEW
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears that a LLC could be forming at 10 north/35.2 west. It is moving westward. Convection has formed over it. I think this will be a "depression level system" in the not to distant future.

[Anthonyl]

A question for matt, why does the TWO say movement as wnw when it is clearly moving due west.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is kind of moving west-northwest or slightly north of west. I think they are looking at the northern part or the smaller LLC that is trying to form on the northern side. You look at that for development. But I expect it to go back westward.

[cycloneye]

There is no comparison in size between 91L and 92L.The whole envelope of 91L is three or four times bigger than 92L.And slowly it is organizing.Distint from 92L,that the convection weakened,91L has mantained a good deal of it.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
I'm sorta surprized that 91L is able to refire convection and not 92L.
is there convection near or over 91L's center.