Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

[Bane]

From the expanse of the convection- it extends around
100 miles east-west, it looks like much of eastern north
carolina will get a soaking that they need. I'm hoping
for some heavy heavy rains for you all to bust
your drought!!!

not gonna happen

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[gotoman38]

66kts found by recon in SE quad

[ncbird]

From the expanse of the convection- it extends around
100 miles east-west, it looks like much of eastern north
carolina will get a soaking that they need. I'm hoping
for some heavy heavy rains for you all to bust
your drought!!!

Total rain here so far is a whopping .29 and thankful for even that as most have had none. Don't think it will be a drought buster.

[HURAKAN]

66kts found by recon in SE quad

I guess we have now a 60-mph storm?

[gotoman38]

URNT12 KNHC 091530
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/15:10:10Z
B. 34 deg 44 min N
076 deg 20 min W
C. 850 mb 1483 m
D. 30 kt
E. 28 deg 011 nm
F. 182 deg 044 kt
G. 043 deg 027 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 18 C/ 1520 m
J. 20 C/ 1525 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 01345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 03 nm
P. AF305 0507A GABRIELLE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 66 KT SE QUAD 15:17:50 Z
MAX SFC WIND 55 KT SE QUAD 15:15:00Z

55kt * 1.15 = 63.25 mph surface

[storms in NC]

Just had a little shower here. I guess that is about all we will get today off and on. Guess better than nothing.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

From the expanse of the convection- it extends around
100 miles east-west, it looks like much of eastern north
carolina will get a soaking that they need. I'm hoping
for some heavy heavy rains for you all to bust
your drought!!!

Total rain here so far is a whopping .29 and thankful for even that as most have had none. Don't think it will be a drought buster.

I know it wont bust the drought LOL but with that heavy squall
you all should see at least some substantial rain....The
convection has been expanding and the storms contained
will likely put out at least brief heavy rains.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Gabrielle is Intensifying as it Approaches
North Carolina:
1002 mb and 63 mph surface sustained:
See the recon obs thread.

[HURAKAN]

Will be interesting to see if the NHC makes an update in the next few minutes or waits two more hours.

[gotoman38]

Also - found 1002mb

EDIT - they were ascending - NOT a valid reading

[Sanibel]

Slow Gulf Stream reaction working its way up to hurricane.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Gabrielle is rapidly intensifying. When is it
forecast to make landfall? We could see a hurricane.
It has gone from 40 to 60 in just a couple hours according
to Recon!!!!

[RL3AO]

They have to issue an update.

[wxman57]

Looks like shear is increasing and convection is decreasing and separating from the LLC. Not an indication of intensification, regardless of any pressure drop.

[ncbird]

For those wondering why we are getting giddy at the thought of even getting a few sprinkles from Gabby. This is North Carolinia's Drought Conditions as of Sept. 4. I expect it will be even worse when next weeks stats come out as few have gotten any rain the past week and sadly only those right on the coast will see any rain from this tropical system.


91% of the state is under at least a Severe Drought - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed

61.6% of the state is under at least a Extreme Drought - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions

5% of the state is under an Exceptional Drought - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies

[Sanibel]

The LLC is distorted. The 60mph could be mostly from gradient. You can get that with a cold front sometimes.

[RL3AO]

000
WTNT62 KNHC 091613
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1215 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007


RADAR IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE CROSSED THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA ALONG THE CAPE LOOKOUT NATIONAL SEASHORE AT ABOUT 1145 AM
EDT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL...THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE YET TO REACH THE COAST AND WILL BE
SPREADING ONSHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[wxman57]

The LLC is distorted. The 60mph could be mostly from gradient. You can get that with a cold front sometimes.

The wind was most likely a transient wind in a squall. That squall has weakened now. The pressure gradient isn't enough to produce 60 mph winds. You can get 60 mph winds behind a front in the winter, but that's from supergradient winds resulting from very cold air over warm water.

[OuterBanker]

Just to let you know. They cancelled our church picnic (next week we'll have it). I don't know why though. Been sunny for several hours, a beautiful day in fact. Also looks like the center is outrunning the convec again. Maybe we'll get some of that rain on the backside of the storm.